Skiracer's stock slopes

[skiracer]

I took a position in Ipxl at 17 about a week and a half to two weeks ago an have been in an out of it several times over the last couple of months. Up a few bucks with it to date. I like it's long base (double bottom not quite complete yet) over the last year but what I really like is that one of the directors recently bought 3.5 million shares at 13.38 back in Dec. 2004. They also have recently been approved for several of their generic drugs by the FDA and recently received approval for their version of Wellbutrin and today received approval for their version of Dantrium, whatever that is. Also today they launched their version of Oxy-Contin. Also have a number of generic versions in the pipeline. Been alot of buzz about them being a possible takeover target. Teva Pharmaceuticals could be a possible suitor. This issue was a 26 stock awhile back. Big play in the AH today. Up about 1 point.
Plum which I had from 4.89 and was up about .40 on 4000 shares took a drop over the last couple of days, no bad news or anything that I can see, but has fallen to about 4.78 today an I had a bad feeling that the shorts were on top of it. The chart was looking great up until Tuesday so I bailed today and will keep a close eye on it for re-entry at a cheaper price than my original entry. Still love the stock. Exited at 4.82 for a .08 loss after being up .40. I hate that. Figure I'll catch it cheaper on the rebound but just going to watch it for the time being.
Rdwr is another one that I have been watching and like alot. Check the chart out on this double bottom over the last 8 to 9 days. A short time frame for that but the daily looks pretty good to. It's been consolidating some of it's recent gains the last couple of days an if it breaks resistance at 26 tomorrow, which I think it will, I'm in.

[mrmarket]

Skiracer, I looked at RDWR, PLUM and IPXL.

Of the 3 stocks, I like RDWR the best due to the fact that it has shown recent revenue growth and its chart looks like it wants to go higher. For me to buy it, I would have to see more consecutive quarters of non-negative earnings. But that's just me, a big chicken.

The other two stocks don't have the earnings track record I usually look for but again that does not mean that the stocks won't go higher.

Your explanations of why you like these companies sound very reasonable to me and I'm the first to say that there is more than one way to make money.

Good luck and keep those ideas coming!

[skiracer]

I bought Rdwr today at 25.99. I know I posted late yesterday that I was going to wait for it to break 26 but 25.99 was close enough to 26 for me. It actually opened at 25.99. I almost sold it when it was up around 27.35 or so but decided to hold on an it reversed to drop back to 25.56 at the close. I'm holding 1000 shares an my logic is any bird in the hand is worth two in the bush. You really never know what these stocks are going to do, only what you think you see in their charts. I held onto Plum for almost 3 weeks, which is long for me, or so an was up .40 on 4000 shares an, which is 1600 dollars gain, while waiting for the break up instead it folds an I end up selling off at 4.82 for a .07 cent loss or 280 plus the commissions instead of taking the 1600 while I had it in my hands. Does that make sense? I really don't know if it is better to hold on when the chart looks great or to take the profits when you have them in hand. It still mystifies me how they take one step forward and two back and we keep hanging in there. I've evolved to the point where I can only speak for myself and what I do. Anymore I find it troubling holding on while other larger forces manipulate the movement of stocks and smaller retail investors like ourselves get swept along in their tide. My feelings are getting much stronger in that if the positions aren't making you money then it's not worth being in them. When I first enter a position I will not set a physical stop until the position shows a gain of at least 1/2 point which makes it at least profitable if the market makers stop me out. I set them close an if I get stopped out then I take the gain an if it starts to go back up I'll jump back in. It's that simple. Of course if you have a daytime job and can't watch them all day then you can't do that. I'd just as soon exit an enter several times in an uptrend, which is more work but that is what this is all about, as to end up having a gain and then seeing it drop to end up taking a loss of some percentage. There are a number of things that will constitute a buy signal for me aside from a great chart pattern which I thought was quite evident in Rdwr's chart over the last two weeks. I'm finding that breaking news is becoming a much larger influence in what drives a stock over the shorter term than earnings to some degree, but I'm not saying that earnings aren't a significant factor an a great earnings report is also good news. I've been into Ipxl now on this last trade for almost two weeks or so from 17. I've traded it several times over the last 2 months and took gains and some losses on those trades but to look at the stocks earnings and chart neither one of them impress me but the fact that one of their insiders buys 3.5 million shares at 13.38 gets my attention. Would anyone in their right mind spend 40 million dollars if they didn't know or have an edge into what they thought was going to happen. He's up 16.63 million on those shares right now and the stocks earnings aren't showing anything.
I'm a firm believer in the technical analysis side of all of this and spend alot of time studying it and scanning charts for the good looking ones that show promise. I also believe in the fundamental side of it and that if the fundamentals are there and strong then the chances of a winner are enhanced. Over the last 7 or 8 years I thought I had evolved into a pretty strict technically based short term swing/momentum trading discipline but the one thing that I see now happenning with myself is that everything I do is changing as I see the markets and the players in the markets changing. The one thing that I find myself doing more now than ever is keeping an open mind to everything that I hear, see, and read that I may apply it to my own ever evolving strategys. So I set a couple of close stops today on Ipxl and Rdwr to lock in those gains from today an if I do get stopped out Monday it won't be at a loss and if they start back up an hour or so later I'll jump back in. By the way just to set the record straight and not to be hypocritical, although I have been somewhat critical of your record in the past on that other place, I have bought and made money on several of your picks but never disclosed that info until now. I also appreciate the place an opportunity to carry on and rant like this an it doesn't cost a penny. Can you beat that?

[Runner]

Skiracer, awesome explanation. Since I’m getting into my busy season I have been having some success with Bracket orders. This allows me to buy, set my stop and target price all in one order. I also follow a tight stop, and I’ve been shaken out many of times but too me protecting that capital is key… You sure sound as if you have a well defined plan…..

Runner

[skiracer]

At this point in time for me protecting my capital is the number one priorty and taking a profit on the position to build a larger capital base is second only to honoring your exit strategy to stop the bleeding at a set %point. Every day brings new opportunities as sure as things in motion change.

[B.J]

Good stuff, Ski! Love your posts on the other site as well.

I've had my share of bouts with seeing profits deteriorate lately. Frustrating to say the least. I've developed a strategy that, when I take a full position ($15-20K) I will sell half of it when I get a solid double digit gain (20% preferably). If it's looking strong, I'm going to let it ride until the chart starts to look bad. If it's looking not so strong, I just bag the entire proceeds for the next.

$$MM$$'s way ain't too bad either. Take the 15% and run before some bad news hits.

[skiracer]

Thanks for the compliment. For a pretty long period of time I subscribed to an outfit called Morpheus Trading Group. It's run by a guy named Deron Wagner who is a swing trader and is pretty good at what he does. He felt the same way as you do in respect to taking something off the table to protect the initial investment and to let the rest run with a trailing stop to protect the remaining position. I never saw him lose money, in hundreds of trades, on a trade once he had a gain by letting it go in the hope that it would recoup. He always set a stop of some nature an always took something off the table once he had it. His feelings were that it was hard enough to find winners and that once he exited a position that was it an except for reviewing his winning and losing trades to better understand what went on he let them go and moved on. He would always say that everyday brought on fresh opportunities and lived for those fresh setups the next day. He never let a stock go past his preset loss point so he never lost more than say 7/8 % if it went down from his initial entry. I would see him exit a trade in the morning on a stop out and re-enter in the PM if it started to move back up. Two things he embedded in my strategys were honoring the specific loss point and never, which I still have some trouble with after all these years, let your profits go after you have them. The most important thing is that just having a plan or strategy for yourself that you feel comfortable with that you follow rather than just going with the tide sets you apart from the herd mentallity. Of course that doesn't gurarantee that you'll make profits but I think that it eventually will lead to them over the long run. One thing that I have found that I like in Mr. M's technique is that he follows his own strategy, believes in what he is doing, and stays his course, which is unique amongst all the people that do invest in stocks. I have to respect anyone that is playing it that way regardless of whether they're making bongo bucks or not.

[skiracer]

I've been looking at Amtd for the last week and a half. Almost took a position when it was around 10.80 but was anxious about the markets in general an since they rely on trading in the markets I held off until I got some better vibes on the markets and the stocks direction in general. This past week the stock has begun to trend up, I'm going to try to upload a chart which I'm not positive will work or not, after dropping from the 14+ range around the beginning of the year when that January correction and pullback occurred. My feelings are that the stock is a major player in this sector and will recoup it's losses back to the 14 range if the markets cooperate. I'm looking to enter tomorrow morning 1/2 hr. after the open after I get a better feel for which way the wind is going to blow. My target is 13/14 range an I won't be setting any stops until I get at least 1/2 point gain to around 11.80 or so. My 7% loss point would be at 10.51 but I don't think I would let it go that far if it starts to drop and would exit at around 11 even. Alot depends on the markets with this trade but I feel there is plenty of room for gain and little risk with the position with these numbers. Before I try to upload the chart I wanted to mention a couple of things. The Morpheus Trading Group website (Morpheustradinggroup.com) is full of great free stuff and you can access Deron Wagner's daily ETF report in the archives section. You would be getting the ETF report and his sector plays a day late but it's worth it for a number of reasons and even though a day later there is still plenty of time to take a position in those plays if after viewing those charts you still feel there is room for gain which usually there is. It's definitely worth taking a look at and very educational regarding ETF's and his take on the hot sectors. There is also a free weekly email you can sign up for that gives his take on the markets in general for the past week and the coming week. It's a good thing. Here is another site where you can get a free subscription to SFO magazine which is full of great info and articles on all of this stuff we are doing.
http://65.118.251.61:81/CT00033501MjQ2NjEA.html. Here goes with the chart upload.

[skiracer]

Ah sweet success. Thanks Spikefader for leading me to those two programs an in the general direction of how to do this.

[skiracer]

Just a quick update on what's going on with these three stocks. I'm still holding all three positions.
Ipxl closed today at 19.02. That up 2.02 points from my entry. I was under the impression that they were supposed to report earnings today but still haven't heard or seen anything on that. The stock was up .77 today on much higher volume than average which is a good sign. I set a stop once I had a 1/2 point gain in the trade and now have adjusted the stop at 18.75 which insures me of a 1.75 gain. In the meantime I'm letting it run until I get stopped out as I will keep adjusting the stops if it continues to trend up. I think that 20/21 isn't unreasonable over the near term.
Rdwr closed today at 26.50. That up .51 from my entry at 25.99. I still haven't set a stop with this trade yet but if it continues to move up tomorrow morning I may set a stop at around 26.40 or so. I've been seeing some very encouraging news releases regarding heightened demand for their products which is good but the daily chart is what I like the most. Since the beginning of the year it has been forming a decent looking double bottom base an is just about ready to finish the right side of that formation an form a handle. We might see a nice breakout from this point in the near term. Check it's daily chart out. I'm a bit anxious about setting a stop to close with this one just because it might start forming that handle and consolidate a little bit an I don't want to lose this one by getting stopped out to early. I really feel this stock has alot of juice and could go to 30 easily.
Amtd has dropped .22 below my entry of 11.34. I'm giving it some room to breathe for the rest of this week as I feel it is just consolidating some of it's recent gains and shaking some people out although on the daily chart the A/D and OBV lines aren't looking that good. This one could go either way but I have seen some big volume plays in the after hours on it over the last few days an institutional holdings have increased. This one really needs the markets to trend up to help it out. I like it alot but will exit if it goes to and breaks 11. I'm looking at a couple of new ones which I'll post on soon.

[mrmarket]

Good stuff skiracer. You definitely deserve your own topic on here. How about "Skiracer's Slopes"?

[billyjoe]

skiracer,

I also like the chart on rdwr. In the past year or so a purchase at your point seems to work better than waiting for the handle at least it's worked that way for me. Do you put any weight on the group number? That would worry me a little , but as with any stock lately , you could go to the crapper and when you get back find that your stock has also taken a dump.

billyjoe

[skiracer]

Komg on the long side this morning at the open. Feel confident it will open above yesterday's close of 21.95 Ostk short if it doesn't open below 50. Already down 2.50 in the pre-market.

[skiracer]

This has been a strange day. I picked up some news on Komg early on Briefing.com and liked it at 21.95/22 range. Also caught some news on Ostk and loved the short play for it today. Anyway I procrastinated about both and didn't do anything in the pre-market which I could kick myself for but when you're indecisive you're better off not doing anything. When that feeling in my gut is there I never have any problem in pulling the trigger on a trade. It's when I'm indecisive I usually get hurt. Exited Amtd at 11.01 as I posted last night. Got stopped out of Ipxl at 18.75 an it dropped to 18.17 on news that Biovail was initiating a suit against it over Ipxl's generic version of it's Wellbutrin 100 tablets. I don't believe there's anything to the suit but it was enough to get the price below my stop. I can't complain about the 1.75 gain on the 1000 shares an almost re-entered at the low of the day because I feel the stock is still going to go over 20/21 near term but held off an now it's back up to 18.80 range.
Rdwr is doing exactly as I expected and wanted it to do. It's dropping on lower volume as it starts to form that handle off the double bottom and shakes out some holders. I'm in at 25.99 an if it goes below 26.20 I'm going to buy another 1000 shares which would average me out at 26.10 range. I hope someone picked up on Ostk for the short. It was a beautiful play off the news about their finiancial internals. Spikefader had a nice article yesterday or the day before on patience and not chasing these stocks if you miss your desired entry. I couldn't agree more with everything he said. The best part is that tomorrow there will be a few more just like those that will present themselves so there is never any reason to press entry only set your stops, honor them, and stop the bleeding when an if it happens. It never fails to amaze me how things change over the course of a few hours. Komg is now down around 22.26. What goes around comes around to those that are patient. I like the stock for a swing an it looks like I may still get a chance at it but since I've already missed it once now I'm going to wait it out until nearer the close to see if I can't get it closer to what I wanted in the first place. Take a look at the daily on Komg. Nice looking chart. The news this morning was that Zacks had put it on their #1 ranked list and that demand for their products was very high an earnings and guidance were up substantially. One last point. John Murphy, Stockcharts main analyst, feels that the dollars lack of strength and decline, rising oil and commodity prices are going to cause long term rates to go higher which isn't going to be good for REITs or home builders or the stock markets in general. I would agree with him on these points and would exercise caution in selecting your trades, their length, and what side of the fence your on over the shorter to intermediate term. This market today is showing just how volitaile it can be with the big swing range between the am, midday, and pm. I personally feel that I wouldn't be looking at anything over the longer duration either long or short.

[mrmarket]

Skiracer... Try to use paragraphs and it'll be easier to read in this format.

you write great stuff and I don't want anyone with poor eyesight (like me) to miss out.