Goog

[Runner]

Dave, you must have a lot of faith in that chart? Are you telling me you made a decision to buy GOOG solely on that chart? I noticed today GOOG had the largest outflow of money since the IPO. Where is you stop target and upward target on GOOG?

[Runner]

[DSteckler]

<< Are you telling me you made a decision to buy GOOG solely on that chart? >>

Absolutely! Everything that needs to be known about a stock is reflected in the chart. After all, the chart shows the winner of the buyers/sellers battle.

My stop is 394 or lower, once the first 1/2 hour has passed. As you can see, this isn't a hard stop but a time based stop. If GOOG is anywhere south of 394 at 10:00 a.m. ET, I'm "outadere'" as they say in Brooklyn.

On the upside I'll sell if GOOG touches 419, the 20-bar EMA on the 30-minute chart. This EMA is dropping so unless GOOG makes a huge spike in the morning, the upside target is probably a little lower.

[New-born baby]

Follow the crowd

Looks like the GooG crowd followed the crowd of investors stampeding out of INTL, MOT and CSCO. I guess they read the handwriting on the wall because a lot of folks left the tech sector today. I just wish I had been able to sell some naked calls on it today. And being under the $400 marker is an important psychological resistance point, too. This one ought to be very interesting to watch, and maybe, to trade.

[Runner]

<< Are you telling me you made a decision to buy GOOG solely on that chart? >>

Absolutely! Everything that needs to be known about a stock is reflected in the chart. After all, the chart shows the winner of the buyers/sellers battle.

My stop is 394 or lower, once the first 1/2 hour has passed. As you can see, this isn't a hard stop but a time based stop. If GOOG is anywhere south of 394 at 10:00 a.m. ET, I'm "outadere'" as they say in Brooklyn.

On the upside I'll sell if GOOG touches 419, the 20-bar EMA on the 30-minute chart. This EMA is dropping so unless GOOG makes a huge spike in the morning, the upside target is probably a little lower.

Dave thanks for letting me peek into your logic. I thought I was missing something. Well your buying into weakness that’s for sure. Best with it and I hope it does reverse for ya!

[New-born baby]

<< Are you telling me you made a decision to buy GOOG solely on that chart? >>

Absolutely! Everything that needs to be known about a stock is reflected in the chart. After all, the chart shows the winner of the buyers/sellers battle.

Dave,
I love the TA traders like you. I try to believe the chart--regardless of what my emotions/intellect/gut tell me.

My personal understanding is that GooG has not yet bottomed. I'll show you from this chart:

1. PnF chart says $316 bottom after today's action.
2. The STOs all say that GooG is still falling.
3. That support line on your chart $404.05, was broken, and the stock finished down at $399.46. Sure, I'd expect GooG to test that $404.05 support now broken that acts as resistance, and it remains to be seen if GooG will bust it.

I hope you do well with this trade. I might look into the calls on this one . . . I'd think that those $430 calls would be out of reach of the stock. The one thing the chart doesn't tell us is what day GooG announces earnings?

I just checked the option chain on GooG: RICH.
$400 Feb calls are SELLING for $28! The $430 FEB call sells for $16.30. That's rich!

[Runner]

Here is my last thought on this GOOG chart. Now I’m done with it and it will do whatever it will do. I was looking at this as if I owned some shares from back in the boxes

Daily chart:

[DSteckler]

You guys may be right on GOOG but I'm thinking there will be a pop Monday morning. MACD and VFI on the 30-minute chart all improved slightly (although still negative) in Friday's last half-hour. I also see that a small congestion range developed in the open/close ratio of the last four half-hour bars.

[New-born baby]

Yeah

You guys may be right on GOOG but I'm thinking there will be a pop Monday morning. MACD and VFI on the 30-minute chart all improved slightly (although still negative) in Friday's last half-hour. I also see that a small congestion range developed in the open/close ratio of the last four half-hour bars.

We might be right, and you might be right. It will be interesting . . . the thing about GooG is it is too rich for my blood to buy 100 shares. Yeah, I could do it, but it would take a big chunk of my cash, more than 5% But if I had 100 shares, and I sat where you are sitting, I'd be alot braver because those options are very rich.

[skiracer]

The stock market is very much like a sports betting line. Games come on board at a specific point spread and move back and forth as people either believe the point spread is to high or two low and bet their money either way. Taking a look at Google and what has happenned over the last couple of days and say to yourself would I buy that now at $399.46. There are a few million people out there plus hedge fund mgrs. that are evaluating that same decision right now and thinking to themselves boy this is cheap. Like New Born stated for him to buy a 100 shares would be too much to expend that high of a % of his portfolio capital to do so. But if it went down $36 dollars today what if you had 100 shares and it went up $20 or $30 Monday. Nice gain of possibly $2000/3000. Also look at the options play after today for their Feb. and March $420 calls. If this thing goes up $10 on Monday or Tuesday it would be nice to be holding a few of either of those contracts. I think Goog is nearing a level where it could be looking like a very nice bargain at those levels. It was up over $475 a two weeks ago. This same thought is going through alot of peoples minds right now. How much farther do you think it will or could fall before you say wow this is cheap relative to where it was a week or two ago and there are alot of people thinking about that right now.

[New-born baby]

Skiracer,

Ski,
You are just the guy who could play this thing for $3k or so.

[skiracer]

Ski,
You are just the guy who could play this thing for $3k or so.

New Born,
I'm just looking at the stock and thinking it was $475 a few days ago and now it's $399. I'm not saying I'm right or wrong but like when you look at a sports contest and the spread is Giants -8 over Buffalo at the Meadowlands. I might think that there is no way they should be 8 point favorites and take the underdog Buffalo or I may think that the Giants will kill them and bet the Giants to win giving the -8 points. But if everyone loves the Giants -8 and are betting the daylights out of the Giants and the point spread then moves up a couple of points to say Giants -10 peoples feelings start to change and all of a sudden more people are thinking that Buffalo is a better bet taking the +10 points. Google and stocks are the same way. Right now Google is in my opinion starting to look cheap at $399. How about if it goes down another $10 or $15 points on Monday morning. Now it is beginning to look really cheap an I can hardly contain myself. I would be thinking this is a great bargain an I'm sure alot of other people would be feeling the same way once it gets to a point where it begins to catch the eye of everyone. I'm beginning to feel that it is getting to that point where it looks to good to be true. I'm sure alot of other traders are thinking the same thing right now. I would look for an option play right now, but if you had $80000 or so to play with you could get 200 shares and set a close stop and the r/r could be real close to even money or less. I usually don't play with anything this expensive but when the stock gets to a point where it looks so much oversold that it stands out almost ridicously so then it starts to get your attention. I think the March $420 calls might be a nice play this week to get a cheap edge on a few hundred shares with a few contracts at $19 or so rather than putting up the $80000 to get the 200 shares. This is a very volitaile stock an it would be no big deal for it to move up 10/15 points after dropping 75 over the last few days.

[sowersnc]

It was in full panic mode today along with the Nas. I grabbed some shares at $401 near the close. It won't be the low but I do have faith in the earnings growth of Google.

We shall see if I get an instant reward or get to feel some pain waiting.

[DSteckler]

<< It will be interesting >>

Oh, yeah. A move in the right direction Monday morning = another trip to Las Vegas in a few months <VBG>.

[New-born baby]

Wow

<< It will be interesting >>

Oh, yeah. A move in the right direction Monday morning = another trip to Las Vegas in a few months <VBG>.

Wow, Dave. Don't you get enough gambling right here in the market? I thought GooG might provide enough to satisfy

No doubt about it: GooG has made a lot of people a lot of money. I hope it fills your pockets.