AMLN - comments?

[jiesen]

AMLN's Byetta approved for an additional indication

http://money.cnn.com/2006/12/22/news/companies/amylin_eli_lilly.reut/index.htm?source=yahoo_quote

This is HUGE news for AMLN, and will lead to an even greater number of prescriptions for Byetta:

Amylin-Lilly diabetes drug widens use

FDA gives diabetes drug Byetta a green light as an add-on therapy to improve blood sugar control.

December 22 2006: 5:14 PM EST

LOS ANGELES (Reuters) -- Amylin Pharmaceuticals Inc. and Eli Lilly and Co. said Friday the Food and Drug Administration has approved their diabetes drug Byetta as an add-on therapy to improve blood sugar control in people with type 2 diabetes who have not achieved adequate control on a thiazolidinedione, or TZD.
Byetta is already approved for treatment of patients with type 2 diabetes who are unsuccessful at controlling their blood sugar levels despite using the commonly prescribed oral medications metformin, a sulfonylurea, or a thiazolidinedione.

[spikefader]

[peanuts]

Ok, Jiesen the genius, I'm finally convinced. I bought AMLN today @ $39.50. With the recent news of Pfizer's drug research being stopped for a major product, I think that the attention to pharms will increase- and special attention will be paid to those companies with promising new drugs. Thank you so much for continually raising my attention to AMLN Hopefully, I'll toast to you in the future.

This sucker is taking a nose dive this morning

[jiesen]

Ok, Jiesen the genius, I'm finally convinced. I bought AMLN today @ $39.50. With the recent news of Pfizer's drug research being stopped for a major product, I think that the attention to pharms will increase- and special attention will be paid to those companies with promising new drugs. Thank you so much for continually raising my attention to AMLN Hopefully, I'll toast to you in the future.

Thanks, Peanuts! I think the European launch is the thing to watch for now. That will give some good indication in the near term as to what the total market is going to look like - but I would think it'd have to be at least double what the US market is... Next will be LAR, where in a few years you could see another doubling of sales, easily.

Good luck with the position- I hope to be toasting you when we're at $80 next year.

[peanuts]

Ok, Jiesen the genius, I'm finally convinced. I bought AMLN today @ $39.50. With the recent news of Pfizer's drug research being stopped for a major product, I think that the attention to pharms will increase- and special attention will be paid to those companies with promising new drugs. Thank you so much for continually raising my attention to AMLN Hopefully, I'll toast to you in the future.

[jiesen]

Why AMLN's scrips will continue to grow:

from:

http://www1.investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=2885&mn=12695&pt=msg&mid=918670

Diatribe: interview excerpts on Symlin (WOW) Some powerful points from a Diatribe interview with Davida Kruger. A few of [Paul's] comments in italics.
First, on the changing dynamic of health advice:

diaTribe: Where do most patients learn about diabetes?

Kruger: Ninety-nine percent of the information patients get is from each other. They’re out there
blogging every day. That’s where they’re getting most of their information. They’re also very savvy
about good Web sites, and I send them to good ones all the time.

(I've read of this before, and done it myself. People are doing their own medical research and diagnosis on the Web, then taking their findings in to their doctor. Ppl are shopping doctors more than ever before as well, and docs have to keep up. Ppl are becoming more knowledgeable and proactive toward their healthcare. That's why the Byetta blogs are so important. And that's why DTC advertising is also central; ppl are listening. -p.)


diaTribe: What else are you hearing from patients who are using some of these new drugs and
devices?

Kruger: On Symlin, it’s the first time in their life they’ve ever been able to follow a meal plan because
they’re not hungry. (Editor’s note: Test Drive in diaTribe #2 will focus on Symlin.) So now we
have to go back and provide an opportunity for patients to really learn the nutrition plan; whether it
be Weight Watchers or ADA approved, whatever. It’s the first time that they’ve had control of their
food intake, so let’s go back and provide the support and education in medical nutrition. Patients
are thrilled with how flat their blood glucoses are after meals as well.


(I like that. Symlin is not just a maintenance drug; it's being used as a tool to regain total health. -p)


diaTribe: We’ve heard that the outcomes in the field are actually better than they were in the clinical
trials.

Kruger: Yes, I would say that too. The outcome in the field is a hundred percent better.

diaTribe: Wow – why do you think that is?

Kruger: I’m constantly saying that we finally have a chance to take these drugs out for a real test
drive, because when you have to hold to the letter of a protocol in a clinical trial, you can’t be your
own clinician. You can be a safety guru to make sure that the patient is safe, and you can also make
sure the protocol is followed to the letter, but you can’t individualize treatment. Now I get to sit in
front of the individual patient and see how Symlin or Byetta best fits into their life. And I’ll tell you,
the A1c lowering and the weight loss with both of these drugs are so much more dramatic than we
ever saw in the clinical trials.

diaTribe: So what are you seeing? Are you actually seeing A1c drops of more than a point or so,
from a lowish baseline?

Kruger: Yes. Yes. Yes. In fact, what I’m seeing is so dramatic, and I know I’m not the only one, that
I keep trying to send these case studies to Amylin saying these are better than what you’re using for
your training. And they keep saying, “We can’t use them because we have to stay within the guidelines.”
So, yes, I am seeing dramatic weight loss, and I am seeing dramatic lowering of A1cs way
beyond what the FDA approval was based on.

diaTribe: Can you talk about how patients feel about the drugs now that they’ve been out for a
year?

Kruger: Oh yes. You know, there are always naysayers in the world, but I’ll tell you that my
patients do not turn away from three extra injections a day if they get the benefit of Symlin. And
people with type 2 diabetes who are not on injections do not mind taking the two injections if they
get to use Byetta. It’s a different thought process with Symlin. I am not minimizing the fact that
there’s a whole psychology to taking injections. But we can lay out benefits to a patient—their A1c
will be lower, their blood glucoses will be better, and they probably will lose weight and feel better.
I do not hang my hat on the weight loss part because some patients aren’t going to lose weight, and
I don’t want them to get discouraged from the improvement of the A1c because for them that’s still
a major benefit, and that’s not a reason not to use a drug. But I’ll tell you, I don’t have patients that
turn away from using Symlin or Byetta because those drugs are injectables. I just don’t.

diaTribe: Why do you think adherence is such a problem?

Kruger: Well, I think what you have to remember is that life is really ... busy. I think if you look at
any of us – I have hypertension, I have elevated lipids, and I have all of these other issues that I am
personally dealing with. I understand what the ramifications are if I don’t take care of them. Do I always
eat well? And when I’m on the road, how do I compensate for all of that and how do I manage
to get all of that done and still live my life? Then you think about people who have all those diseases
I just mentioned, and they have diabetes on top 0f that. That’s typical. And I’m saying to them, “I
want you to exercise. I want you to follow a diet. I want you to take six blood glucoses a day. I want
you to wear an insulin pump. I want you to take Symlin and I want you to call me every three days.”
So, tell me, would you have time to have a life? So is the issue adherence, or is it life?

[jiesen]

Byetta Scrips: Read it here first!

51,488 B Sym up 9% -
Lewes

from:

http://www1.investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=2885&pt=msg&mid=814862

[New-born baby]

yes, but the current 500% sales growth does count for something

Yes, indeed it does!

[jiesen]

Yeah, it could jump today. Still tradin' at more than 10X sales.

yes, but the current 500% sales growth does count for something

[New-born baby]

I see that some analysts were expecting a loss of .46. AMLN really thumped those estimates. This may bode well for the stock price...

good luck

Yeah, it could jump today. Still tradin' at more than 10X sales.

[peanuts]

Well, the revenues were about where I expected, at $147M (up about 500%), but they did a much better job on the EPS than I thought, trimming it to just 0.36 from 0.65 this time last year. With sales continuing to increase and a 90% gross margin, they could turn this loss around to a profit as early as next year, imo.

I see that some analysts were expecting a loss of .46. AMLN really thumped those estimates. This may bode well for the stock price...

good luck

[jiesen]

results are in - AMLN beats estimates by 0.10

Well, the revenues were about where I expected, at $147M (up about 500%), but they did a much better job on the EPS than I thought, trimming it to just 0.36 from 0.65 this time last year. With sales continuing to increase and a 90% gross margin, they could turn this loss around to a profit as early as next year, imo.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/061018/earns_amylin.html?.v=1

Amylin 3Q Loss Narrows on Byetta Sales
Wednesday October 18, 5:30 pm ET Amylin Pharmaceuticals Cuts Its Third-Quarter Loss and Beats Expectations As Byetta Sales Grow

SAN DIEGO (AP) -- Drug developer Amylin Pharmaceuticals Inc. said Wednesday its third-quarter loss narrowed 34 percent, as sales jumped fivefold, soundly beating Wall Street expectations. The company reported a net loss of $46.1 million, or 36 cents per share, compared with a loss of $69.5 million, or 65 cents per share, a year ago. Analysts polled by Thomson Financial, on average, expected a loss of 46 cents per share.

Revenue jumped to $147 million from $25.9 million. That also topped Wall Street estimates, as analysts expected revenue of $136.6 million.

The jump came from sales of the diabetes drugs Byetta and Symlin. Byetta sales made up the bulk of revenue, totaling $126.4 million. Analysts were worried about whether the drug could recover from a moratorium on new prescriptions, imposed after demand far outpaced supply of the cartridges that hold the injectible drug. That moratorium was lifted during the quarter as the company added a second supplier to keep up with demand.

Amylin and drug developer Eli Lilly & Co. are partners on Byetta.
Symlin sales made up $12.4 million of Amylin's revenue. Collaborative agreement payments brought in another $8.2 million, which double the previous year.
Shares of Amylin rose 41 cents to close at $47.45 on the Nasdaq during regular trading. They continued to rise after hours, gaining 79 cents to reach $48.24 on the INET electronic exchange.

[jiesen]

Jiesen,
What is your take on DNA's avastin? Is it as potentially huge as the statin drugs? Are they really marketing it under different names and strengths and using to treat a variety of ailments , charging wide ranges of prices for the same product ?

----------billyjoe

Billyjoe,

I really dont know much about avastin's situation, but I will try to find out about it. marketing under different names does seem to be par for the course these days in the drug market.

I know that DNA is premier biotech company, one of just a few making decent money right now. I would be interested in this one if I werent already so heavily into biotech already. If AMLN hit 80 tomorrow, I might sell it and take a closer look at DNA though.

if you want a good safe biotech position, best bet would be to split your money in DNA and AMGN, then forget about it, imo. you have a good point in the avastin question, though, since it is a significant chunk of DNA, you would definitely want to be sure that it'll do well over the next few years before committing to DNA.

[billyjoe]

Jiesen,
What is your take on DNA's avastin? Is it as potentially huge as the statin drugs? Are they really marketing it under different names and strengths and using to treat a variety of ailments , charging wide ranges of prices for the same product ?

----------billyjoe

[jiesen]

http://members.cox.net/mystock/Amylin.htm

where does it look like these scrip numbers for Byetta are heading? right now a 50k week means a $50 stock. but next year, when AMLN does 80k/week Byetta scrips, where will the stock trade?

take a look at the scrips chart- second tab. AMLN is going there... and then some.