AMLN - comments?

[New-born baby]

Lye-baby:

Lye,
Something I've been meaning to ask you . . . .

http://img404.imageshack.us/img404/2221/chart12sj.gif

[New-born baby]

Amln

You might be right.... Where's the bottom NB-Baby?

I'd say a couple of things to ya, LYE-BABY:
1. If you are correct with the Golden Rule retracement of 61.8% at $37.60, you are losing $2 to get there (not my style). I always figured I'd keep the $2 and pick it up again later. Besides, my forecasted bottom may not be the real bottom. It might drop further.
2. I don't know where you entered the stock, but if I wanted this one so bad my play would be sell the calls for FEB $40 for the $1.30. [If fact, I owned AMLN and had sold those $40 calls for $5 (bought them last Friday when AMLN was $43. Sold them yesterday; should have sold them today! Or not at all ]. Doubt she'll pullback up by the 17th. Yes, we are just $39 now, but I am looking for a 100% retracement to $32.60.
3. I could be too pessimistic here. You should take into account that I am a conservative type investor.
4. Ask Spike to confirm this, but the last four days make an "A" downturn. We still need a "B" corrective, and a "C" that falls further South than "A" before we are ready to enter the stock again. No, I'd leave this one.

Look at this chart and you can see why I say what I say:

http://img426.imageshack.us/img426/6554/chart11yl.gif

AMLN stopped right on the 38.2% retracement of the advance since the 8/23 gap.

[Lyehopper]

Why? Drop it and pick it up again. This ain't the bottom. . . .

You might be right.... Where's the bottom NB-Baby?

[Lyehopper]

of course this drop is killing my POTW avg...

I still like it Jiesen. I'm holding my shares.... expect a little further selloff?... maybe.

[jiesen]

of course this drop is killing my POTW avg...

[jiesen]

AMLN under 40 today

If you've felt like the AMLN train has been passing you by, now's your chance to jump on it. Trading at $39 right now.

[jiesen]

S&P announced an AMLN upgrade today- new target: $57

NBB, your $61 target isn't too far off of what S&P just picked as their target. Personally, I think both will be surpassed within a year- but we'll see...

http://yahoo.businessweek.com/invest...6463_pi010.htm

Amylin Pharmaceuticals (AMLN ) : Ups to 4 STARS (buy) from 3 STARS (hold)
Analyst: Frank DiLorenzo, CFA


Net fourth quarter sales of Byetta were $49 million, $13 million above our forecast. We are raising our 2006 Byetta sales projection to $314 million, from $292 million. Also, partner Lilly (LLY ) announces EU filing on Byetta ahead of schedule. With strengthening Byetta market position and exenatide LAR in Amylin's pipeline, we are less concerned about future competition. We are boosting our 12-month target price to $57 from $40.

[New-born baby]

Target:

Jiesen<
I've got the chart targeting $61 right now. Looks pretty good, actually. I may buy into this thing again tomorrow and look to hold it for a month. I sold my shares right at $38 (I had $40 calls sold on it at the time and they expired worthless). But now I think I should have held onto her a little longer.

Thanks for your FA viewpoint!

[jiesen]

Hmm, well I'm not too concerned or even that interested right now in whether AMLN is up or down a few % over the course of a day. I see it going up over the long run- at least to 60 or 80 in the next couple of years, and probably into the $200 eventually. I'd like to just be able to hold onto the stock until then. So far, nothing has given me any reason to change my opinion, and everything is still pointing in the right direction, as far as I'm concerned. That being said, I think there could be a couple explanations for the drop- one would be the options expiration yesterday, since many who exercised their calls would probably want to sell today. Another would be a "buy the rumor, sell the news" type of reaction to today's scrip numbers, which were pretty good, actually.

http://finance.messages.yahoo.com/bbs?.mm=FN&action=m&board=7076553&tid=amln&sid=7076553&mid=163312

compare to recent "disappointing" weeks, where the stock has gone up:

http://www.members.cox.net/mystock/Amylin.htm

The stock will not always move in the direction you'd expect from the daily news. In fact- it will often move exactly in the opposite direction you'd have thought. Another reason to ignore the short-term noise, and look more at the bigger picture. That's why I'm picking it every week for the POTW- I don't expect a 10% move each week, but an average small gain each week is what I'm actually aiming for now. Fits my actual trading mode as well. AMLN is a long-term buy and hold for me, at least for the next year or so. When I see the growth in scrips actually taper off to less than 5%/month is when I *may* reconsider my position.

[New-born baby]

Jiesen

Jiesen,
Hey man, how about posting your opinion on today's AMLN action. You know, down $1.42 or so. I daytraded the dog for some lunch money, but what are you thinking for long term?

Johns Hopkins Medicine Re: Diabetes

In its subject "white paper" re "New Advances in the Treatment of Type 1 and Type 2 Diabetes", the physicians at Johns Hopkins state "Both Byetta and Symlin are promising new drugs for diabetes sufferers. And both effectively signal the pancreas to secrete insulin, while they slow the passage of food from the stomach to the intestines to suppress appetite. Are you a good candidate? Find out."

The above was listed before any other innovations re Diabetes Control that were identified in the subject "white paper".

[jiesen]

Yep, still glad to be in AMLN. As for the SNY drug remonabant, as an investor I'm not going to give it too much thought, as in the grand scheme of things, even IF it turns out to be worth $1B to the company (and that's a big IF, since approval is still at least a year away, AFAIK) that would be less than a 1% boost to SNY's total market cap. So I'd say to evaluate SNY on its other merits besides the promise of that one drug, if you're into SNY. Thanks for bringing it to my attention though, as SNY is interesting to me for other reasons, which I will check out.

Scientifically, though, remonabant is interesting, and I will try to learn more about the mechanism of this drug, as well as the overall obesity market, since this could be very relevant to the future sales potential of Byetta and Symlin.

AMLN Rocks

Jiesen,

I hope your still in AMLN. Its doing great even over the last two crappy days on the market. Amln looks strong!
I, unfortunately, was stopped out over the Christmas holidays. Went on vacation and set a limit order that was eventually stopped out. It immediatley reversed at the beginning of the year and is still going strong. I am still looking for an entry point back in but... with it moving up so steadily it hasn't provided an opportunity.

Anyway... enough with the negative. I was wondering about your thoughts on the CB1 antagonist remonabant(acomplia) for obesity? This is undoubtably a huge market as long as it gets to the market without any "black boxes". It has also been implicated in other indications including drug abuse, smoking cessation etc. Do you think there is a play here in Sonofi-Aventis the company that is developing this drug?

[jiesen]

comments from the Yahoo! board showing up now:

http://finance.messages.yahoo.com/bbs?.mm=FN&action=m&board=7076553&tid=amln&sid=7076553&mid=161595

Looks like no news came out, and that she at least handled the interview well.