AMLN - comments?

[jiesen]

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=AMLN&t=6m&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=m50&a=&c=

Ok, so now that it's an established double bounce off the 50 day MA, what do you tech experts predict is next for AMLN? Note that last time there was a double bounce off the 50-day MA the stock jumped $10 in a week. Will this happen again? Or will it be a $20 jump this time?

(of course I am just spouting nonsense right now, as I have technically no clue)

[Lyehopper]

Jiesen,

What do you make of AMLN sitting on the 50dma for three straight days? Is its next move up or down.

My call is down.

[Websman]

AMLN has a huge gap that might possibly fill... then again, it may not. If it does, I will take advantage of a huge bargain.

[jiesen]

Very good question! I noticed that AMLN seems to have lost its momentum, and I've considered getting out of it here, while it's still at a good gain for me. I could wait for the drop that may come as others get bored and move on for my re-entry, or just take my profits and not look back. But I think this would be a mistake right now, since I believe that long-term AMLN will be trading much higher than where it is now. The recent numbers, while not as fantastic as I would have liked, still show plenty of strength for AMLN, and there's a lot of room for it to grow. I don't see any reason for it climbing anytime in the immediate future, though, and it may see $30 before it sees $40, but I'm certain that it'll see $40 eventually, so I will probably not be selling AMLN anytime soon.

amln

Jiesen,

What do you make of AMLN sitting on the 50dma for three straight days? Is its next move up or down.

[jiesen]

Well, my AMLN position is pretty long-term. And though the earnings this quarter weren't spectacular, I think that soon enough they will be. Ramping up their sales and marketing is expensive right now, but it will pay off in the end. Give them a few more quarters to connect the dots, and soon the analysts will change their minds and send AMLN to $100 and above.

The fast rise here from 20 to nearly 40 was almost enough to make me sell out just before the earnings today. I actually had my finger on the trigger, but I held off for two reasons. First, I didn't want to miss out if this was the ER that blew everyone away and sent it up another 50%. Second, this is in a taxable account, and I didn't want to have to pay the taxes on this gain yet (yeah a pretty bad reason, and I'm kicking myself for hesitating once again due to that).

By the way, did you see the margin on their product? It cost them $4M to make the drugs that they sold for $22M. With the marketing efforts already in full swing, but sales still ramping up, it's possible they can keep the fixed costs fixed, and by quadrupling their sales (easily done by next year) they could completely wipe out the loss. Like I said, give them time. Another 6-12 months and the picture will be much clearer.

from:

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/051026/law094.html?.v=27

Net product sales of $21.9 million for the current quarter include sales of $18.1 million for BYETTA® (exenatide) injection, a first-in-class therapy for type 2 diabetes, and $3.8 million for SYMLIN® (pramlintide acetate) injection, a first-in-class diabetes therapy that is used with mealtime insulin. Net product sales consist of shipments of BYETTA and SYMLIN to the Company's wholesale customers, net of allowances for discounts, distribution fees and returns.

Revenue under collaborative agreements was $4 million for the quarter ended September 30, 2005, compared to $13.4 million for the same period in 2004. In the third quarter of 2004, the company recognized $5 million in milestone revenue from Eli Lilly and Company and had higher cost-sharing revenue due to higher BYETTA development expenses than in the current quarter.

Cost of goods sold was $4.3 million for the quarter ended September 30, 2005.

Research and development expenses increased to $32.7 million for the quarter ended September 30, 2005, compared to $30.8 million for the same period in 2004. The increase primarily reflects increased investments in the Company's pipeline activities.

Selling, general and administrative expenses for the quarter ended September 30, 2005, were $52.1 million compared to $15 million for the same period in 2004. This increase reflects the expansion of the Company's commercial capabilities and business infrastructure to support the commercialization of BYETTA and SYMLIN in the United States. This expansion included hiring and training for our now fully staffed field organization, expanded marketing, medical education and customer service activities, and related administrative support.

Collaborative profit sharing, which represents Lilly's share of the gross margin for BYETTA, was $7.2 million in the third quarter of 2005.

Net loss was $69.5 million, or $0.65 per share, for the three months ended September 30, 2005, compared to a net loss of $34.1 million, or $0.36 per share, for the same period in 2004.

[spikefader]

More thoughts.

[spikefader]

Yep, there's the divergence right there.

[New-born baby]

Please don't

I just pray she doesn't fill the gap . . . .

Notice the Price making nice highs, but RSI dropping (red line) . I guess this could be a negative divergence between price and RSI.

[spikefader]

[skiracer]

Jiesen,
Just this sort of thing has nailed me 2 or 3 times in the past year. The only thing I see to prevent losses due to unexpected earnings is a portfolio that never holds through earnings , but how realistic is that ? Any suggestions?
The worst part of this is the ineffectiveness of stops when earnings are announced after hours.
billyjoe

Down around 4 points in the AH. You guys must have been in early on an are holding some pretty nice gains with this stock. Can't you just let it go and take what gains are left. This thing could really go off the chart in the morning.

[billyjoe]

Jiesen,
Just this sort of thing has nailed me 2 or 3 times in the past year. The only thing I see to prevent losses due to unexpected earnings is a portfolio that never holds through earnings , but how realistic is that ? Any suggestions?
The worst part of this is the ineffectiveness of stops when earnings are announced after hours.
billyjoe

[jiesen]

I wouldn't exactly say "fall short"

But nevertheless, AMLN's results aren't as fantastic as I'd hoped:

http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/stocks/robertsteyer/10249709.html?cm_ven=YAHOO&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA

Amylin Sinks as Results Fall Short

By Robert Steyer
TheStreet.com Staff Reporter
10/26/2005 6:27 PM EDT
Click here for more stories by Robert Steyer
Updated from 5:03 p.m. EDT

Amylin Pharmaceuticals (AMLN:Nasdaq - commentary - research - Cramer's Take), the developer of two diabetes drugs, issued third-quarter results Wednesday that fell below analysts' expectations on both the top and bottom lines.

The financial report, issued after markets had closed, led to a sharp selloff in after-hours trading. Amylin's shares lost $3.99, or 10.5%, to $34. In regular trading, the stock gained 44 cents.
Amylin lost $69.5 million, or 65 cents a share, on revenue of $25.9 million for what was its first full quarter of commercial operations. Analysts polled by Thomson First Call had predicted a loss of 57 cents a share on revenue of $30.7 million.


For the same period last year, Amylin lost $34.1 million, or 36 cents a share, on revenue of $13.4 million.

Amylin makes and sells Symlin, an injectable drug for helping reduce blood sugar and which is used in conjunction with insulin. Symlin was approved by the Food and Drug Administration in March, after more than four years of review during which the agency twice asked Amylin for additional clinical data.

The more important product is Byetta, which helps control blood sugar. The FDA approved the drug in late April. Amylin has enlisted Eli Lilly (LLY:NYSE - commentary - research - Cramer's Take) to help it market Byetta, which must be injected twice a day. Amylin isolated the drug from the saliva of the Gila monster.

Amylin also is working with Lilly and Alkermes (ALKS:Nasdaq - commentary - research - Cramer's Take) to create a version of Byetta that can be injected once a week.

Although Byetta's clinical results have been favorable, some analysts have said sales might fall below more bullish Wall Street estimates because the injectable Byetta must compete against similar medications that are taken orally.

Ginger L. Graham, the president and CEO, told analysts in a telephone conference call that demand for Byetta isn't completely reflected in reported revenue because Amylin provides free samples to doctors, along with certain discounts for patients. These practices are standard to the pharmaceutical industry as companies promote new drugs to doctors and patients. Go to NEXT PAGE

Greenberg says hold, Cramer says sell!

Today on Jim Cramer's "Mad Money", Senior MarketWatch columnist Herb Greenberg, citing increasing prescription volume for Byetta, suggested that AMLN could reach $100 - $200 in 3 - 4 years. Cramer, who advocated the stock in the high teens feels that it is time to "ring the register". Greenberg vehemently disagreed.