AMLN - comments?

[spikefader]

In a tricky place count wise. Sets up aggressive long here, but I think it's worth waiting for the pullback on this occasion.

[jiesen]

AMLN scrip data, Oct 7 (Byetta up 5%, Symlin up 4%)

http://finance.messages.yahoo.com/bbs?.mm=FN&action=m&board=7076553&tid=amln&sid=7076553&mid=149576

AMLN had prescriptions reported by IMS America
this morning for recently approved diabetes drugs Symlin and Byetta. Total prescriptions for Byetta in its nineteenth full week ending October 7 were 12,383, of which 9,263 were new prescriptions up from 11,839 total and 9,225 new Rxs respectively in the prior week.

Total prescriptions for Symlin for the week ending October 7 were 1,746 with new Rxs of 1,016, up from 1,672 total and 1,081 new Rxs in the prior week. Overall, over 15,000 new prescriptions have been written for Symlin in its first three months of launch.

[jiesen]

Clinical effects of Byetta

Byetta in clinical practice has been quite interesting. The key effects of byetta are characterized by its effects on fasting blood glucose (FBS) and postprandial blood glucose (PPS):
(1) Delayed gastric emptying leading to improved glycemic index. (PPS)
(2) Restoration of first-phase insulin response which is lost in diabetics and absolutely critical for postprandial control. (PPS)
(3) Reduction in glucagon levels and therefore reduced fasting blood glucose by reduced hepatic glucose output. Uptitration leads to added benefit and further reduction of FBS. (FBS,PPS)
(4) Decrease feeling of hunger through CNS effects of byetta. (FBS,PPS)
(5) Preservation and possibly restoration of beta cell function. (FBS,PPS)

There are additional effects apparent in patients on byetta (clinical observations):
(1) Reduced dyspnea and improved breathing. Probably mediated by reduced insulin requirement. Insulin is antidiuretic leading to volumeexpansion.
(2) Reduced leg swelling. (insulin sparing)
(3) Reduced hunger (CNS effect; delayed gastric emptying)
(4) More energy (? mechanism)
(5) Feeling better: initially I thought that this is related to wt loss; however, having seen patients that ran out of byetta for a few days reporting increased depression, no agility, no persistence in finishing tasks I speculate if there is actually a different mechanism in play. One patient specifically felt dramatically better on byetta and lost all energy while off it and regained her "energy" immediately after going back on it. This effect was not glucose control or weight loss dependent. Byetta as "antidepressant"? Intriguing.
(6) Congestive heart failure: one patient was waiting for his mail order byetta after being on Byetta 5; After 2 weeks of waiting (off byetta) he had an exacerbation of CHF;
(7) Nausea; so far the only problem; about 2/3 of patients will not observe any nausea at all; the rest will have some but it usually tapers down within days; 2 patient had persistent nausea leading to discontinuation of byetta (one lost 7lb the other 18lb); this could be secondary to possible subclinical gastroparesis;
( Effects on medications: again the delayed gastric emptying may lead to delayed absorption of medication; one patient reported that "her water pill doesn't kick in until the afternoon"; after a change from AM to PM dosing the problem resolved; Interestingly, due to the circadian rhythm of blood pressure (high BP in the morning) I actually adjust some patients' BP meds to evening dosing with improved AM BP control.
(9) There is a beneficial effect on lipids using byetta with reduced triglycerides and LDL and a slight increase in HDL; I have seen reductions in CRP in some patients; all this data is preliminary; it appears that this effect is independent of wt loss, however, accelerated with wt loss.

from:
http://messages.yahoo.com/bbs?.mm=FN....wBrmnB6r9A7Nw--

[jiesen]

New Scrip data: Byetta 11839 (up 8%) -- Symlin 1672 (down 2%)

Not fantatstic, but not bad either:

Byetta 11839 -- Symlin 1672
by: longamln (42/M/FL)
Long-Term Sentiment: Buy 10/10/05 10:35 am
Msg: 148637 of 148637
Investment Conclusion
AMLN had prescriptions reported by IMS America
this morning for recently approved diabetes drugs
Symlin and Byetta. Total prescriptions for Byetta
in its eighteenth full week ending September 30
were 11,839, of which 9,225 were new
prescriptions up from 10,971 total and 8,882 new
Rxs respectively in the prior week. With 1-month
starter packs being provided to key prescribers,
we believe that these numbers underestimate true
patient starts.
Summary
! Total prescriptions for Symlin for the week ending
September 30 were 1,672 with new Rxs of 1,081,
down from 1,714 total and 1,071 new Rxs in the
prior week. Overall, over 14,000 new
prescriptions have been written for Symlin in its
first three months of launch.
! Overall, we remain encouraged by early Rx
trends, particularly for Byetta and expect the
significant acceleration to continue in October as
physician visits pick up after the summer and early
samples are converted into actual sales.
Reiterate 1-Overweight rating.

why i bought it??????
the first time is because you told me to!!!
the second time is because it held up nicely, and then sold when it was stalling. and then bought a lot more of the big jump day after hours and am holding it.
Missed a few points but biggy biggy hi ho thank you again

PS I did do some of my own dd too.

[billyjoe]

Jiesen,
I once owned a stock headquartered at the Islets of Langerhans , but seriously, there was a report on the networks about an inhalable insulin that couldn't be regulated in the case of smokers. They inhaled too much or absorbed a dangerous dose or something strange like that. It does make sense that a long time smoker's uptake of anything inhalable might be out of the ordinary.

billyjoe

[jiesen]

AMLN - Why I bought it - (why not post this here, too?)

AMLN recently received approval for both of its main drug candidates. On approval, the stock traded down from the low $20s range to nearly $15, an absolutely insane price for a stock with 100M shares outstanding, and two new drugs each with billion-dollar potential. Currently, AMLN trades at $36 and is climbing steadily with 25M shorted shares dragging silly TA traders into an early retirement.

Early analyst projections downplayed the potential sales for Symlin and Byetta, claiming that the benefits were minimal, that inhaled insulin would compete, and patients are too afraid of needles to accept these drugs into their regimen. Well, actual results may vary! Patients are finding the needle to be no problem at all, and that the benefits of Byetta are far outweighing any inconvenience. Sales of Byetta are increasing at a rate of about 10% per week, putting Byetta on track for $100-150M this year, and likely more than double that in the next.

Symlin sales have been quite a bit slower than Byetta, to be sure, but the potential still exists for this drug to be as big a blockbuster as Byetta surely will be. Part of the success Byetta is having is due to the collaboration with LLY, and the effectiveness with which LLY is able to bring this drug to market. Once AMLN gets on the ball with their sales and marketing team, Symlin sales will be rising just as fast as Byetta.

I'm a chemist, Jim, not a doctor! So I can't pretend to explain to you how this drug works, but if you go check it out here:

http://www.byetta.com/hcp/200_incre....jsp?reqNavId=2

you'll see how Byetta helps a diabetic's body regain the ability to regulate glucose on its own, as well as trigger a feeling of fullness which prevents a diabetic from overeating. This may be one of the drug's best selling points. As patient after patient loses his or her excess weight, word gets out that this stuff really does change a person's life around, and next thing you know, every overweight diabetic is demanding it.

So enough about the products- given that they're in huge demand, are extremely profitable, as proprietary drugs are- what about the numbers?

Well income statements from the past of course do not do AMLN justice.
They lost 110M, 120M, and 160M in the years ending 02, 03, and 04.And they'll likely continue to lose money for another couple or three years... BUT they've done this while keeping a very healthy balance sheet:

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bs?s=AMLN

Check that out! They have a half a billion in cash and equivalents, but what about that $400M in debt you may ask? Gone! At today's stock price, that puts all of AMLN's debt as convertible to equity more valuable than the bond is worth. So you can forget about AMLN having any cash troubles... ever. If AMLN is good at one thing, it's been raising money. Whenever they've needed cash, they've found a way to get it, and that's paid off for them big-time.

Well, I'm getting tired writing this thing up, ($$MM I don't know how you manage to do this every time) but I do have a couple other things I want to mention... Byetta LAR is the next project they've got in the works, it's a once-a-week injection rather than the several times daily form it takes now. If this is shown to be just as effective, it will dramatically increase the patient acceptance, and therefore profits. Given the success AMLN has had previously with Symlin and Byetta, I say it's a cinch they'll get LAR approved. Not only this, but there are a few other candidates lurking behind the scenes, and I expect that Symlin and Byetta will not be the last drugs AMLN contributes to our world. AMLN will be joining the ranks of Amgen, Genentech, Biogen-Idec in short order, leaping to the $10B-$20B market cap range as sales climb into the billions.

[jiesen]

Jiesen,
You're gonna get me interested in this one yet. What does Smylin do?
Make you happy all the time?



billyjoe

That's what it's been doing to me lately, anyway... but actually Symlin is an synthetic version of your body's natural horomone, amylin, which along with insulin is produced in the Islets of Langerhans. Diabetics usually have deficiencies in both insulin as well as amylin, so adding this drug to a diabetic's arsenal just makes sense. What all it does, is a bit more complicated- and I don't know it all offhand, but I do know it helps to maintain a better blood sugar level, and to reduce appetite- which is one of the main reasons patients are really liking the drug. Mostly, though, the drug has been shown to greatly improve patients general sense of well-being, more so than any hard reduction in mortality or other such numbers.

AMLN owns 100% of the revenue stream generated by Symlin. They are partnered with LLY on the bigger of their two current products, Byetta. If Symlin ends up taking off as much as Byetta has, AMLN could easily see $200/share. Also Byetta LAR has potential to greatly increase the potential for Byetta sales. There are plenty of reasons to be bullish on AMLN. I'll try to make a better case as I go...

[billyjoe]

Jiesen,
You're gonna get me interested in this one yet. What does Smylin do?
Make you happy all the time?



billyjoe

[jiesen]

AMLN scrips up slightly this week over last

Total prescriptions for Byetta the week ending September 23 were 10,971, of which 8,882 were new prescriptions up from 10,749 total and 8,935 new Rxs respectively in the prior week.

Total prescriptions for Symlin for the week ending September 23 were 1,714 with new Rxs of 1,071, up slightly from 1,713 total and 1,074 new Rxs in the prior week.

[jiesen]

AMLN up another buck

AMLN is making new all-time highs today after breaking past 33.4.

Makes me feel silly for selling half of my stock at 27. Oh well, go AMLN!!!

[jiesen]

AMLN scrip numbers: up 30 and 39% for B and S

9/16 Wk Rx: Byetta 10,749, Symlin 1713
Total prescriptions for Byetta in the week ending September 16 were 10,749, of which 8,935 were new prescriptions up from 8,243
total and 6,845 new Rxs respectively in the prior week.
Total prescriptions for Symlin for the week ending
September 16 were 1,713 with new Rxs of 1,074, up from 1,230 total and 748 new Rxs in the prior week.

[jiesen]

wow, no

I didn't see that. Thanks for pointing it out! That's fantastic news for people suffering from spinal cord injuries. I sure wish I'd picked up shares of STEM last week!

FYI did you see the STEM news???

Published Study Shows First Direct Link between Human Neural Stem Cells and Restored Motor Function in Spinal Cord Injured Mice; StemCells Inc.'s Adult Human Neural Stem Cells Regenerate Protective Layer Around Nerves Following Spinal Cord Injury
Business Wire - September 19, 2005 17:00

PALO ALTO, Calif., Sep 19, 2005 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- StemCells, Inc. (Nasdaq: STEM) today announced results of a published study that demonstrates that the Company's proprietary human neural stem cells restore the lost motor function of mice with spinal cord injuries. This study is also the first to show the causal relationship between transplanted human neural stem cells and long-term recovery of motor function: The human neural cells were subsequently ablated in some of the mice, and their improved motor function was lost.

The study was conducted by Drs. Aileen Anderson, Brian Cummings and their colleagues from the Reeve Irvine Research Center at the University of California, Irvine. It will be published today online in the Early Edition of the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America (PNAS), and will appear in the September 27, 2005 print issue. The study was funded in part by a Small Business Innovative Research Grant from the National Institute of Health (NIH) to StemCells, Inc. Support was also provided by the Christopher Reeve Foundation through its International Research Consortium on Spinal Cord Injury.

As part of the study, human neural stem cells were transplanted into mice nine days after a spinal cord crush injury that results in hind limb paralysis. The mice were then observed and tested for sixteen weeks after the transplant. The transplanted mice showed significant improvement in their ability to walk compared to mice in two control groups, and the improvement persisted during the full term of the study. The treated mice had better weight-bearing ability and coordinated stepping using their hind limbs. Data gathered during the study shows that the transplanted human neural stem cells survived, produced new neural cells that integrated into the mouse spinal cord and reversed hind limb paralysis.

"While we are early in our quest to find a stem cell therapy for spinal cord injury, the design of this study raises the bar for evaluating experimental cell-based therapies in this extremely debilitating medical condition," said Martin McGlynn, President and Chief Executive Officer of StemCells. "The study clearly demonstrates that our proprietary human neural stem cells make functional new neural cells, and are responsible for the restoration of hind limb function in this animal model of spinal cord injury."

The human neural stem cells, when transplanted into the mouse spinal cord, become specialized new cells called oligodendrocytes that make myelin. Myelin forms a protective sheath that insulates nerve fibers that conduct electric signals for proper function. The newly formed human oligodendrocytes produced new myelin sheaths around damaged mouse axons. In addition, new human neurons were generated that formed synapses, a specialized junction linking one neuron to another.

Note to Journalists: The complete study is expected to be published online this week at www.pnas.org. For those wishing to see it prior to online publication, please e-mail [email protected].

About StemCells, Inc.

StemCells, Inc. is a development stage biotechnology company focused on the discovery, development and commercialization of stem cell-based therapies to treat diseases of the nervous system, liver and pancreas. The Company's stem cell programs seek to repair or repopulate neural or other tissue that has been damaged or lost as a result of disease or injury. StemCells is the first company to directly identify and isolate human neural stem cells from normal brain tissue. These stem cells are expandable into cell banks for therapeutic use, which demonstrates the feasibility of using normal, non-genetically modified cells as cell-based therapies. StemCells is the only publicly traded company solely focused on stem cell research and development and has more than 40 U.S. and 100 non-U.S. patents, as well as 100 patent applications pending worldwide. Further information about the Company is available on its web site at: www.stemcellsinc.com.

Apart from statements of historical facts, the text of this press release constitutes forward-looking statements regarding, among other things, the future business operations of StemCells, Inc. ("the Company") and its research and product development efforts. The forward-looking statements speak only as of the date of this news release. StemCells does not undertake to update any of these forward-looking statements to reflect events or circumstances that occur after the date hereof. Such

[jiesen]

AMLN weekly scrip #

Unconfirmed scrip number is down this week:

"According to PJ, Byetta scripts totalled 8,243 in the week ending 9/9 (holiday-shortened week; down from 8,813 in the week prior). The daily cumulative script estimate for the week ending 9/16 was 8,140 (7,830 was the week prior daily estimate)"

Doesn't look like a good week to me, but also doesn't change my opinion on my position.