AMLN - comments?

[jiesen]

new Byetta and Symlin scrip numbers:

Numbers are still increasing, though at a bit more modest rate (5-10% weekly):

RX's
by: bostonmatty1 (57/M/Central CT)
Long-Term Sentiment: Strong Buy 09/06/05 08:29 am
Msg: 143394 of 143397
AMLN had prescriptions reported by IMS America this morning for recently approved diabetes drugs Symlin and Byetta. Total prescriptions for Byetta in its thirteenth full week ending August 26 were 7,090, of which 6,110 were new prescriptions up from 6,725 total and 5,788 new Rxs respectively in the prior week. With 1-month starter packs being provided to key prescribers, we believe that these numbers
underestimate true patient starts.

Total prescriptions for Symlin for the week ending August 26 were 1,388 with new Rxs of 935, up from 1,331 total and 879 new Rxs in the prior week. Overall, well over 9,000 new prescriptions have been written for Symlin in its first three months of launch.

Re: Daily Rx - is schwarts1 around?
by: schwarts1 09/06/05 08:35 am
Msg: 143395 of 143397
I am here. According to PJ, the daily cumulative Byetta script estimate for the week ending 9/2 was 7,861 (up from 6,480 in the week prior).

[jiesen]

Of those I like:
AMLN
TEVA
AGN

I would probably stay away from MLNM

And I would avoid FRX like the plague.

Also, I am watching these:
ACAD
AKZOY
ANDS
LGNDE
MEDI
PDLI
STEM

JNJ is always a good bet, so is the currently battered PFE (unless the MRK situation continues to worsen, and the blood-suckers go after ALL cox-2 inhibitors).

I think MEDI is popping up on a lot of screens as of today:

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=MEDI&t=5d&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=

STEM also had a very positive development today as well.

http://biz.yahoo.com/cbsmb/050831/c0535d381b9f4eff8cacbd91f9a07ac8.html?.v=1

And as Runner just mentioned, Drugs are having a great run at the moment.

[rrezac]

Here is my 2 cents worth on Teva. Being a Walgreens pharmacist, I think they have a nice line of generic drugs. At different times as I scanned the inventory on our shelves I would think about investing in Teva. The problem is Walgreens switches generic companies often. A generic company who isn't willing to sell to Walgreens at a low price is running the risk of having their product line replaced by someone who is willing "to play ball" with Walgreens. (I think we recently switched from Teva's lisinopril to another manufacturer. See what Wal-Mart has taught us.)
I don't know how often the contracts are re-negotiated, but the competition between generic companies keeps the margins in-line for Walgreens. I am skiddish on investing in such a competitive group such as generic manufacturers. The companies are basically in constant bidding wars to try and gain market share as well as a litany lawsuits trying to bring products to market.
Companies like Amlyn, who actually develop and own the rights to drugs, are much more likely to turn into a profitable venture, in my opinion.

I see a caution light on AMLN. Stock is moving higher on decreasing volume. I also see a possible tweezer top.

DRUGS:

Looks like 50dma got a little pop. Here is a DRUG update chart. Still bullish

[jiesen]

Testimony from a satisfied AMLN customer

FOUNTAIN OF YOUTH
by: WCJumper
Long-Term Sentiment: Strong Buy 08/31/05 08:30 pm
Msg: 142742 of 142743
I'm 70 years old.
Diabetes for 13 years.
On Lantus for the last year.
Gained 35 lbs, stayed hungry all the time.
Joints of fingers,arms,legs,shoulders & back
hurt all the time.
BS readings 160-200
A1c 8.6

Started Byetta 12 weeks ago.
On my third script.
I pay $214.99/pen.
I have lost 22lbs so far.
Am never hungry(eat to live, not live to eat)
Wife says I don't eat enough.
I feel great,pain gone from most joints (age still has its pain).
BS readings 121-141
A1c 7.8 yesterday.
Though A1c still high Dr. likes the weight loss and the way I feel.

I TELL EVERYONE I SEE ABOUT THIS PRODUCT
My former business partner and I loaded up on this stocks years ago. So I can pay my way.

Buy the stack.

http://finance.messages.yahoo.com/bbs?.mm=FN&action=m&board=7076553&tid=amln&sid=7076553&mid=142742

[jiesen]

AMLN news

I think they did this a bit prematurely myself, but anyway you know this was coming:

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/050830/amylin_stock_offer.html?.v=1

Amylin Pharma to Sell 5.1 Million Shares
Tuesday August 30, 7:55 am ET Amylin Pharmaceuticals Plans Public Sale of 5.1 Million Shares for $152 Million in Proceeds


SAN DIEGO (AP) -- Amylin Pharmaceuticals Inc. said Tuesday it will sell about 5.07 million of its common shares at $31 apiece in a public offering, and expects to net $152 million in proceeds. Shares of Amylin, which currently has about 104.5 million common shares outstanding, fell $1.66, or 5.1 percent, to $31 in premarket activity.

[jiesen]

Here is a few other DRUGS looking interesting

Of those I like:
AMLN
TEVA
AGN

I would probably stay away from MLNM

And I would avoid FRX like the plague.

Also, I am watching these:
ACAD
AKZOY
ANDS
LGNDE
MEDI
PDLI
STEM

JNJ is always a good bet, so is the currently battered PFE (unless the MRK situation continues to worsen, and the blood-suckers go after ALL cox-2 inhibitors).

[jiesen]

add CGTK to the list

Cashmaker might back me up on this... I think CGTK looks interesting to me, too. I might have thrown a few bucks at it, if AMLN hadn't looked so good to me, but I still think you shouldn't count them out just yet. At 2.6, they only have a market cap of around $70M, well below the $80-90M net assets on the books. This means you can get their product for free right now- and if there's any value in what they're doing, as long as they don't just waste away all the money, this is a really safe time to buy it.

From what I can tell, there's a good market for their eczema product, and whether it works is still in question, but an answer should be forthcoming relatively soon. Any edge you can get on how it's coming along could be really helpful in deciding whether to go for this one or not.

At any rate, I think it's best to get in on these early, while they're still struggling- you can easily get a 5-10 bagger out of a good biotech, if you pick the right one early enough.

If you wait for it to finally take off (like VPHM or AMLN has) before you buy, you can get burned.

Here is a few other DRUGS looking interesting

Runner, I like your bottom chart with the "Boom, Boom, and a right HOOK!" Reminds me of that old Nintendo boxing game... Stick it at 'em!

ha ha ha, now lets see the Drugs push on!! What a nice p/b to the 50

[jiesen]

Runner, I like your bottom chart with the "Boom, Boom, and a right HOOK!" Reminds me of that old Nintendo boxing game... Stick it at 'em!

DRUGS:

[jiesen]

AMLN's convertible debt

Here is an interesting note on AMLN finances courtesy of BostonMatty1 on the Yahoo! board. According to this, if AMLN trades any higher these could convert to equity, and essentially wipe out most of AMLN's debt (in exchange for dilution). This could really clean up the balance sheet, just as revenues begin to roll in, making the stock even more attractive to the folks who care about things like earnings and book value.

http://messages.yahoo.com/bbs?action=m&board=7076553&tid=amln&mid=138634&sid=7076553

Re: Effect of convertible debt certifica
by: bostonmatty1 (57/M/Central CT)
Long-Term Sentiment: Strong Buy 08/23/05 07:16 am
Msg: 138634 of 141921

200 million at $34.35 = 5.822 million, 2.25%
175 million at $32.55 = 5.376 million, 2.5%


11.199 million shares if converted

The first convertible has mandatory conversion stipulations in the covenant; the second does not.

If conversion occurs, that saves AMLN $8.875 million before taxes.

It would increase the number of oustanding shares to around 115 million.

The buyers of these convertibles would likely hold on since they really wanted equity, not debt in AMLN and AMLN did not want to issue equity at such a low price.

Dilution occurs, but for now it dilutes a loss.

Since these were issued several years ago, the dilution should already be priced in; therefore the only bottom line effect would be the interest savings to AMLN and the 11% dilution in net income, which offset each other.

[jiesen]

I'll repost the projection link, as this has been updated with new data:

http://members.cox.net/mystock/Amylin.htm