AMLN - comments?

[spikefader]

Thanks for the technicals, Spike. I'll try to use this to better time my next AMLN entry, as well as put a tight stop on it this time. My initial position will be held for 50 or bust, but I don't want to throw too much at this one stock... yet, anyway.

Sure, any time. May the Pharma investors be blinded with bullishness for ya

Ya know, I just looked at the Pharma Index, and that's definately not helping AMLN's cause:

[B.J]

Thanks for the chart, Spike. That'll help me rethink my VPHM position.

[spikefader]

Thanks for the chart, Spike. That'll help me rethink my VPHM position.

Well just remember that VPHM is in a different group; it's in NC Health, so would the Pharma Index lead/influence that?

Another point: VPHM is current in No. 8 best potential in that group according to equitytrader.com, so don't be too quick to write it off.

On the technical side, I have a wave count of a possible 5wave abc with the c at 10.60 on Fri that has been bought nicely today, and a bullish hourly PSAR with rising money flow about to hit 70.

On the weekly, it still looks like it's in a 3. Daily and weekly money flow is great. The daily gap support strongly.

I think it's going up. I'm expecting a channel turn up by close tomorrow, that green lights chasing the closing price or Wednesday's intraday pivot.

Failure of C is bad and the time to exit.

[spikefader]

well now I'm confused.....
yhoo says it's in biotech

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/in?s=VPHM

Well, whatever group it's in, let's face it; its recent price action is ignoring any leading index. Check it out relative to $BTK and it makes sense to NOT base any decision off $BTK's price action. I just don't see it directly relevant to it right now. You're better off using VPHM's own support resistance areas.

Anyway, good luck with it!

[jiesen]

Bought AMLN at 19.4

Just bought more (doubled up) at 19.4. I'm putting a stop at 18 on this position. I'm at about a 2% position in AMLN now.

[B.J]

You're better off using VPHM's own support resistance areas.

Anyway, good luck with it!

Spike, thanks for the input. What you recommended is in fact what I've decided to do. Another thing with the chart, if you draw a straight line from 1.67 to 6.62 to 10.14, you'll see that the price has not come below that line, so I ascertain that VPHM is VERY strong.

My stop is under yesterday's low.

[spikefader]

Just bought more (doubled up) at 19.4. I'm putting a stop at 18 on this position. I'm at about a 2% position in AMLN now.

Well you've got three things going for you that may shape up in the face of all the bearish things; price support; 50% retrace of the big recent move; and a channel long day today with entry down near intraday S1 (S2 18.83 would be better but if 19.10 double bottom forms and responds, you'll be sitting pretty).

[jiesen]

cool, glad to hear I got something going for me, technically.

[jiesen]

fwiw

short interest up huge according to the new figures available today:

http://www.nasdaqtrader.com/asp/short_interest_resp.asp?symbol=amln&SettlementDate=07%2F15%2F2005

26M short now vs. 14M in June.

All that shorting and they only brought AMLN down to 19? hmmm.

[spikefader]

Well this is strange. The daily has pulled a fast one. The price action today has changed the characteristics of the channel. What WAS a channel long intraday, by close, it isn't one, and the channel expands, opening the door for bears You got your double bottom at 19.10 today I was happy to note, and price responded well, and now this......but it's a clear bullish candle that one today.

But based on all the other charts, I'm still seeing it favors lower. But hey, you've picked bottoms well in the past, and I'm sure you will in the future!

[jiesen]

New AMLN prescription data

Weekly, ending July 22:
Byetta total 3877, new 3656. Symlin total 1132, new 925

This is not 100% verified, but probably correct. It's at least 10% over what was projected for the week based on daily script #'s. Definitely a reason for AMLN to be up 10% (or more) today.

[jiesen]

Forbes, today, on AMLN:

http://www.forbes.com/markets/2005/08/01/amylin-pharmaceuticals-earnings-0801markets12.html

Amylin's Byetta Still Has Blockbuster Potential

Morgan Stanley maintained an "overweight" rating on Amylin Pharmaceuticals (nasdaq: AMLN - news - people ) ahead of second-quarter results and said the biotech firm's diabetes drug Byetta will likely drive shares higher. "We believe that the Byetta franchise will emerge as a winner, driving significant stock performance over the next 12 to 24 months," said Morgan Stanley. "We continue to believe that Byetta has blockbuster potential."

The research firm predicted second-half volatility in the stock which will come as a result of a number of events including a U.S. Food and Drug Administration panel on Exubera, an inhalable form of insulin made by Pfizer (nyse: PFE - news - people ) and Nektar Therapeutics (nasdaq: NKTR - news - people ). "While we expect significant volatility with the stock as we move through the rest of the year, we recommend using this volatility to buy the stock," the firm said. Byetta, co-marketed with Eli Lilly (nyse: LLY - news - people ), was approved by the FDA in April and launched in June.

Morgan Stanley has a $29 price target on Amylin shares. "We expect commercial uptake of Byetta to be the primary driver of the stock over the next twelve months, and expect investors to follow prescription trends closely. The official sales force launch of Byetta has yet to occur (we understand that the companies have an offsite with the sales force within the next several weeks)," it said. "Additionally, we expect to see acceleration in growth as we move through the third quarter, as patients and physicians return from vacations and as we see prescriptions from post-ADA." The annual American Diabetes Association meeting was held in mid-June.

[New-born baby]

Thanks Jiesen

Nice post, Jiesen. Thank you!

[jiesen]

Nice post, Jiesen. Thank you!

You're welcome. Now I'll see if I can do anything to boost that multi-trillion dollar housing market a little for ya.

[New-born baby]

Do it!

You're welcome. Now I'll see if I can do anything to boost that multi-trillion dollar housing market a little for ya.

Yeah, Jiesen. DO IT!

Thinking about selling some $90 or $ 95 covered calls on KBH.