AMLN - comments?

[jiesen]

AMLN under 40 today

If you've felt like the AMLN train has been passing you by, now's your chance to jump on it. Trading at $39 right now.

[jiesen]

of course this drop is killing my POTW avg...

[Lyehopper]

of course this drop is killing my POTW avg...

I still like it Jiesen. I'm holding my shares.... expect a little further selloff?... maybe.

[Lyehopper]

Why? Drop it and pick it up again. This ain't the bottom. . . .

You might be right.... Where's the bottom NB-Baby?

[DSteckler]

AMLN stopped right on the 38.2% retracement of the advance since the 8/23 gap.

[New-born baby]

Amln

You might be right.... Where's the bottom NB-Baby?

I'd say a couple of things to ya, LYE-BABY:
1. If you are correct with the Golden Rule retracement of 61.8% at $37.60, you are losing $2 to get there (not my style). I always figured I'd keep the $2 and pick it up again later. Besides, my forecasted bottom may not be the real bottom. It might drop further.
2. I don't know where you entered the stock, but if I wanted this one so bad my play would be sell the calls for FEB $40 for the $1.30. [If fact, I owned AMLN and had sold those $40 calls for $5 (bought them last Friday when AMLN was $43. Sold them yesterday; should have sold them today! Or not at all ]. Doubt she'll pullback up by the 17th. Yes, we are just $39 now, but I am looking for a 100% retracement to $32.60.
3. I could be too pessimistic here. You should take into account that I am a conservative type investor.
4. Ask Spike to confirm this, but the last four days make an "A" downturn. We still need a "B" corrective, and a "C" that falls further South than "A" before we are ready to enter the stock again. No, I'd leave this one.

Look at this chart and you can see why I say what I say:

http://img426.imageshack.us/img426/6554/chart11yl.gif

[New-born baby]

Lye-baby:

Lye,
Something I've been meaning to ask you . . . .

http://img404.imageshack.us/img404/2221/chart12sj.gif

[Lyehopper]

Lye,
Something I've been meaning to ask you . . . .
http://img404.imageshack.us/img404/2221/chart12sj.gif

Hey NB-Baby.... With a herd of good black cattle it's hard to see that.lol

[Lyehopper]

I'd say a couple of things to ya, LYE-BABY:
1. If you are correct with the Golden Rule retracement of 61.8% at $37.60, you are losing $2 to get there (not my style). I always figured I'd keep the $2 and pick it up again later. Besides, my forecasted bottom may not be the real bottom. It might drop further.
2. I don't know where you entered the stock, but if I wanted this one so bad my play would be sell the calls for FEB $40 for the $1.30. [If fact, I owned AMLN and had sold those $40 calls for $5 (bought them last Friday when AMLN was $43. Sold them yesterday; should have sold them today! Or not at all ]. Doubt she'll pullback up by the 17th. Yes, we are just $39 now, but I am looking for a 100% retracement to $32.60.
3. I could be too pessimistic here. You should take into account that I am a conservative type investor.
4. Ask Spike to confirm this, but the last four days make an "A" downturn. We still need a "B" corrective, and a "C" that falls further South than "A" before we are ready to enter the stock again. No, I'd leave this one.

Look at this chart and you can see why I say what I say:
http://img426.imageshack.us/img426/6554/chart11yl.gif

I hear ya dude, I like the way you think.... Another angle is.... What two points do you choose to pull the retracement from? Could actually be worse than my chart shows if other fib points were chosen.

If AMLN retraces with a chart like it has.... then I guess we could expect every single pick on the "top five grounghog dump" to follow suit. Wonder if $$MM$$ will consider the charts this time or pull another "FRGB"?

[New-born baby]

Wonder if $$MM$$ will consider the charts this time or pull another "FRGB"?

FRGB isn't the bad one: BEL. This one almost went to zero before regaining its equalibrium at $2.

[New-born baby]

Another angle is.... What two points do you choose to pull the retracement from? Could actually be worse than my chart shows if other fib points were chosen.

I think the FIBs should be drawn this way:

http://img135.imageshack.us/img135/5619/chart18xy.gif

Any way you cut it: it hasn't bottomed. Get out of the way of that falling piano! Buy the FEB $40 puts. Or the FEB $35 puts.

[New-born baby]

FRGB isn't the bad one: BEL. This one almost went to zero before regaining its equalibrium at $2..

And Spike is pulling $$ out of it now. Could have pulled $$ on the short side.

[New-born baby]

AMLN stopped right on the 38.2% retracement of the advance since the 8/23 gap.

Dave,
Saw your post and went back to the chart. I see how you drew the FIB
from the Top of the Gap up. I haven't done it that way before . . . maybe I don't know what I am doing.

What is your opinion? Is AMLN done bottoming out? Are you looking for further downside (like I am)? Would you be a buyer at these levels and at this time?

[DSteckler]

<< What is your opinion? Is AMLN done bottoming out? >>

Not to be glib but we won't know until it starts moving up again on rising (or at least average) volume. Even a pullback to the 50% retracement level, if it holds, is considered bullish.

[spikefader]

Heya guys.

Sorry to be the bearer of bad AMLN news, but the pattern called for today's drop, and it ain't over yet perhaps....
posts relating:

http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/showpost.php?p=39640&postcount=6494

http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/showpost.php?p=39872&postcount=6547