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AMLN - Why I bought it - (why not post this here, too?)
AMLN recently received approval for both of its main drug candidates. On approval, the stock traded down from the low $20s range to nearly $15, an absolutely insane price for a stock with 100M shares outstanding, and two new drugs each with billion-dollar potential. Currently, AMLN trades at $36 and is climbing steadily with 25M shorted shares dragging silly TA traders into an early retirement.
Early analyst projections downplayed the potential sales for Symlin and Byetta, claiming that the benefits were minimal, that inhaled insulin would compete, and patients are too afraid of needles to accept these drugs into their regimen. Well, actual results may vary! Patients are finding the needle to be no problem at all, and that the benefits of Byetta are far outweighing any inconvenience. Sales of Byetta are increasing at a rate of about 10% per week, putting Byetta on track for $100-150M this year, and likely more than double that in the next.
Symlin sales have been quite a bit slower than Byetta, to be sure, but the potential still exists for this drug to be as big a blockbuster as Byetta surely will be. Part of the success Byetta is having is due to the collaboration with LLY, and the effectiveness with which LLY is able to bring this drug to market. Once AMLN gets on the ball with their sales and marketing team, Symlin sales will be rising just as fast as Byetta.
I'm a chemist, Jim, not a doctor! So I can't pretend to explain to you how this drug works, but if you go check it out here:
http://www.byetta.com/hcp/200_incre....jsp?reqNavId=2
you'll see how Byetta helps a diabetic's body regain the ability to regulate glucose on its own, as well as trigger a feeling of fullness which prevents a diabetic from overeating. This may be one of the drug's best selling points. As patient after patient loses his or her excess weight, word gets out that this stuff really does change a person's life around, and next thing you know, every overweight diabetic is demanding it.
So enough about the products- given that they're in huge demand, are extremely profitable, as proprietary drugs are- what about the numbers?
Well income statements from the past of course do not do AMLN justice.
They lost 110M, 120M, and 160M in the years ending 02, 03, and 04.And they'll likely continue to lose money for another couple or three years... BUT they've done this while keeping a very healthy balance sheet:
Check that out! They have a half a billion in cash and equivalents, but what about that $400M in debt you may ask? Gone! At today's stock price, that puts all of AMLN's debt as convertible to equity more valuable than the bond is worth. So you can forget about AMLN having any cash troubles... ever. If AMLN is good at one thing, it's been raising money. Whenever they've needed cash, they've found a way to get it, and that's paid off for them big-time.
Well, I'm getting tired writing this thing up, ($$MM I don't know how you manage to do this every time) but I do have a couple other things I want to mention... Byetta LAR is the next project they've got in the works, it's a once-a-week injection rather than the several times daily form it takes now. If this is shown to be just as effective, it will dramatically increase the patient acceptance, and therefore profits. Given the success AMLN has had previously with Symlin and Byetta, I say it's a cinch they'll get LAR approved. Not only this, but there are a few other candidates lurking behind the scenes, and I expect that Symlin and Byetta will not be the last drugs AMLN contributes to our world. AMLN will be joining the ranks of Amgen, Genentech, Biogen-Idec in short order, leaping to the $10B-$20B market cap range as sales climb into the billions.
AMLN recently received approval for both of its main drug candidates. On approval, the stock traded down from the low $20s range to nearly $15, an absolutely insane price for a stock with 100M shares outstanding, and two new drugs each with billion-dollar potential. Currently, AMLN trades at $36 and is climbing steadily with 25M shorted shares dragging silly TA traders into an early retirement.
Early analyst projections downplayed the potential sales for Symlin and Byetta, claiming that the benefits were minimal, that inhaled insulin would compete, and patients are too afraid of needles to accept these drugs into their regimen. Well, actual results may vary! Patients are finding the needle to be no problem at all, and that the benefits of Byetta are far outweighing any inconvenience. Sales of Byetta are increasing at a rate of about 10% per week, putting Byetta on track for $100-150M this year, and likely more than double that in the next.
Symlin sales have been quite a bit slower than Byetta, to be sure, but the potential still exists for this drug to be as big a blockbuster as Byetta surely will be. Part of the success Byetta is having is due to the collaboration with LLY, and the effectiveness with which LLY is able to bring this drug to market. Once AMLN gets on the ball with their sales and marketing team, Symlin sales will be rising just as fast as Byetta.
I'm a chemist, Jim, not a doctor! So I can't pretend to explain to you how this drug works, but if you go check it out here:
http://www.byetta.com/hcp/200_incre....jsp?reqNavId=2
you'll see how Byetta helps a diabetic's body regain the ability to regulate glucose on its own, as well as trigger a feeling of fullness which prevents a diabetic from overeating. This may be one of the drug's best selling points. As patient after patient loses his or her excess weight, word gets out that this stuff really does change a person's life around, and next thing you know, every overweight diabetic is demanding it.
So enough about the products- given that they're in huge demand, are extremely profitable, as proprietary drugs are- what about the numbers?
Well income statements from the past of course do not do AMLN justice.
They lost 110M, 120M, and 160M in the years ending 02, 03, and 04.And they'll likely continue to lose money for another couple or three years... BUT they've done this while keeping a very healthy balance sheet:
Check that out! They have a half a billion in cash and equivalents, but what about that $400M in debt you may ask? Gone! At today's stock price, that puts all of AMLN's debt as convertible to equity more valuable than the bond is worth. So you can forget about AMLN having any cash troubles... ever. If AMLN is good at one thing, it's been raising money. Whenever they've needed cash, they've found a way to get it, and that's paid off for them big-time.
Well, I'm getting tired writing this thing up, ($$MM I don't know how you manage to do this every time) but I do have a couple other things I want to mention... Byetta LAR is the next project they've got in the works, it's a once-a-week injection rather than the several times daily form it takes now. If this is shown to be just as effective, it will dramatically increase the patient acceptance, and therefore profits. Given the success AMLN has had previously with Symlin and Byetta, I say it's a cinch they'll get LAR approved. Not only this, but there are a few other candidates lurking behind the scenes, and I expect that Symlin and Byetta will not be the last drugs AMLN contributes to our world. AMLN will be joining the ranks of Amgen, Genentech, Biogen-Idec in short order, leaping to the $10B-$20B market cap range as sales climb into the billions.
Effects on medications: again the delayed gastric emptying may lead to delayed absorption of medication; one patient reported that "her water pill doesn't kick in until the afternoon"; after a change from AM to PM dosing the problem resolved; Interestingly, due to the circadian rhythm of blood pressure (high BP in the morning) I actually adjust some patients' BP meds to evening dosing with improved AM BP control. 
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