AMLN - comments?

[New-born baby]

August 26, 2005

Jiesen,

You know I think you are a great FA guy, don't you? I like your recommend of AMLN. But I hereby announce that on Friday, AUGUST 26, 2005, AMLN is going to pull back.

She's been up 10 days in a row. She's been up 11 of last 12 days. She's got to rest sooner or later. So I say, tomorrow is as good a day as any.

This chart big enough, or too big, for you? Let me know.

[jiesen]

Jiesen,

You know I think you are a great FA guy, don't you? I like your recommend of AMLN. But I hereby announce that on Friday, AUGUST 26, 2005, AMLN is going to pull back.

Hmm, I know you meant to say that just about everything would pull back on Friday, but AMLN would be up yet again, right?

Go AMLN!

[New-born baby]

Crash

Hmm, I know you meant to say that just about everything would pull back on Friday, but AMLN would be up yet again, right?

Go AMLN!

And my other prediction, that TOL would be up something, even 1 cent, turned out to be awfully wrong too. Greenspan came out today and denounced the real estate bubble. We are going to have a crash now for sure.

[jiesen]

And my other prediction, that TOL would be up something, even 1 cent, turned out to be awfully wrong too. Greenspan came out today and denounced the real estate bubble. We are going to have a crash now for sure.

Greenspan isn't any more clairvoyant than you are, NBB. Just because he worries about housing prices doesn't mean we're due for a crash (we could very well be, though). I think that his bringing it up is a good thing, if it causes a little pull-back short term, brought on by the most easily panicked traders. Sort of like letting some air out of overinflated tires. Better this than ignoring it completely, and waiting until it pops. By being cautious about it, we could take some of the hit today, and avoid some volatility down the road. Everyone still needs a house, and it doesn't do anyone any good to see the market tank 50% just to see it rebound over the next few years.

[jiesen]

By the way, my biggest stock position by far, LJPC, another biotech/pharm is up nearly 10% today! Go LJPC!

[skiracer]

Greenspan isn't any more clairvoyant than you are, NBB. Just because he worries about housing prices doesn't mean we're due for a crash (we could very well be, though). I think that his bringing it up is a good thing, if it causes a little pull-back short term, brought on by the most easily panicked traders. Sort of like letting some air out of overinflated tires. Better this than ignoring it completely, and waiting until it pops. By being cautious about it, we could take some of the hit today, and avoid some volatility down the road. Everyone still needs a house, and it doesn't do anyone any good to see the market tank 50% just to see it rebound over the next few years.

Cheap an easily obtainable money made it easy to buy a house for most people who initially probably didn't have enough for a decent 20 % normal down payment. Alot of them couldn't furnish the house once they owned it and were in on adjustable rate mortgages. Now the shit is going to hit the fan because of a number of reasons. #1 being the country is in debt big time an 95% of the people here are in debt way over their heads and leveraged to the hilt. The housing sector has been one of the driving factors. Just because people need a home or place to live doesn't justify anything especially the run up in the stock prices of that sector. They are still going to be building homes but the prices are going to have to come back to reality which will effect their bottom line.

[jiesen]

Unconfirmed Byetta scripts for the week ending 8/19 totaled 6,725 (up from 5,782), or an increase of 16%.

Byetta is on track for very impressive growth, indeed. Go AMLN!

[jiesen]

I'll repost the projection link, as this has been updated with new data:

http://members.cox.net/mystock/Amylin.htm

[jiesen]

AMLN's convertible debt

Here is an interesting note on AMLN finances courtesy of BostonMatty1 on the Yahoo! board. According to this, if AMLN trades any higher these could convert to equity, and essentially wipe out most of AMLN's debt (in exchange for dilution). This could really clean up the balance sheet, just as revenues begin to roll in, making the stock even more attractive to the folks who care about things like earnings and book value.

http://messages.yahoo.com/bbs?action=m&board=7076553&tid=amln&mid=138634&sid=7076553

Re: Effect of convertible debt certifica
by: bostonmatty1 (57/M/Central CT)
Long-Term Sentiment: Strong Buy 08/23/05 07:16 am
Msg: 138634 of 141921

200 million at $34.35 = 5.822 million, 2.25%
175 million at $32.55 = 5.376 million, 2.5%


11.199 million shares if converted

The first convertible has mandatory conversion stipulations in the covenant; the second does not.

If conversion occurs, that saves AMLN $8.875 million before taxes.

It would increase the number of oustanding shares to around 115 million.

The buyers of these convertibles would likely hold on since they really wanted equity, not debt in AMLN and AMLN did not want to issue equity at such a low price.

Dilution occurs, but for now it dilutes a loss.

Since these were issued several years ago, the dilution should already be priced in; therefore the only bottom line effect would be the interest savings to AMLN and the 11% dilution in net income, which offset each other.

[Runner]

DRUGS:

[jiesen]

Runner, I like your bottom chart with the "Boom, Boom, and a right HOOK!" Reminds me of that old Nintendo boxing game... Stick it at 'em!

[Runner]

Runner, I like your bottom chart with the "Boom, Boom, and a right HOOK!" Reminds me of that old Nintendo boxing game... Stick it at 'em!

ha ha ha, now lets see the Drugs push on!! What a nice p/b to the 50

[Runner]

Here is a few other DRUGS looking interesting

[jiesen]

add CGTK to the list

Cashmaker might back me up on this... I think CGTK looks interesting to me, too. I might have thrown a few bucks at it, if AMLN hadn't looked so good to me, but I still think you shouldn't count them out just yet. At 2.6, they only have a market cap of around $70M, well below the $80-90M net assets on the books. This means you can get their product for free right now- and if there's any value in what they're doing, as long as they don't just waste away all the money, this is a really safe time to buy it.

From what I can tell, there's a good market for their eczema product, and whether it works is still in question, but an answer should be forthcoming relatively soon. Any edge you can get on how it's coming along could be really helpful in deciding whether to go for this one or not.

At any rate, I think it's best to get in on these early, while they're still struggling- you can easily get a 5-10 bagger out of a good biotech, if you pick the right one early enough.

If you wait for it to finally take off (like VPHM or AMLN has) before you buy, you can get burned.

[jiesen]

Here is a few other DRUGS looking interesting

Of those I like:
AMLN
TEVA
AGN

I would probably stay away from MLNM

And I would avoid FRX like the plague.

Also, I am watching these:
ACAD
AKZOY
ANDS
LGNDE
MEDI
PDLI
STEM

JNJ is always a good bet, so is the currently battered PFE (unless the MRK situation continues to worsen, and the blood-suckers go after ALL cox-2 inhibitors).