AMLN - comments?

[spikefader]

More thoughts.

[jiesen]

Well, my AMLN position is pretty long-term. And though the earnings this quarter weren't spectacular, I think that soon enough they will be. Ramping up their sales and marketing is expensive right now, but it will pay off in the end. Give them a few more quarters to connect the dots, and soon the analysts will change their minds and send AMLN to $100 and above.

The fast rise here from 20 to nearly 40 was almost enough to make me sell out just before the earnings today. I actually had my finger on the trigger, but I held off for two reasons. First, I didn't want to miss out if this was the ER that blew everyone away and sent it up another 50%. Second, this is in a taxable account, and I didn't want to have to pay the taxes on this gain yet (yeah a pretty bad reason, and I'm kicking myself for hesitating once again due to that).

By the way, did you see the margin on their product? It cost them $4M to make the drugs that they sold for $22M. With the marketing efforts already in full swing, but sales still ramping up, it's possible they can keep the fixed costs fixed, and by quadrupling their sales (easily done by next year) they could completely wipe out the loss. Like I said, give them time. Another 6-12 months and the picture will be much clearer.

from:

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/051026/law094.html?.v=27

Net product sales of $21.9 million for the current quarter include sales of $18.1 million for BYETTA® (exenatide) injection, a first-in-class therapy for type 2 diabetes, and $3.8 million for SYMLIN® (pramlintide acetate) injection, a first-in-class diabetes therapy that is used with mealtime insulin. Net product sales consist of shipments of BYETTA and SYMLIN to the Company's wholesale customers, net of allowances for discounts, distribution fees and returns.

Revenue under collaborative agreements was $4 million for the quarter ended September 30, 2005, compared to $13.4 million for the same period in 2004. In the third quarter of 2004, the company recognized $5 million in milestone revenue from Eli Lilly and Company and had higher cost-sharing revenue due to higher BYETTA development expenses than in the current quarter.

Cost of goods sold was $4.3 million for the quarter ended September 30, 2005.

Research and development expenses increased to $32.7 million for the quarter ended September 30, 2005, compared to $30.8 million for the same period in 2004. The increase primarily reflects increased investments in the Company's pipeline activities.

Selling, general and administrative expenses for the quarter ended September 30, 2005, were $52.1 million compared to $15 million for the same period in 2004. This increase reflects the expansion of the Company's commercial capabilities and business infrastructure to support the commercialization of BYETTA and SYMLIN in the United States. This expansion included hiring and training for our now fully staffed field organization, expanded marketing, medical education and customer service activities, and related administrative support.

Collaborative profit sharing, which represents Lilly's share of the gross margin for BYETTA, was $7.2 million in the third quarter of 2005.

Net loss was $69.5 million, or $0.65 per share, for the three months ended September 30, 2005, compared to a net loss of $34.1 million, or $0.36 per share, for the same period in 2004.

[JMS]

amln

Jiesen,

What do you make of AMLN sitting on the 50dma for three straight days? Is its next move up or down.

[jiesen]

Very good question! I noticed that AMLN seems to have lost its momentum, and I've considered getting out of it here, while it's still at a good gain for me. I could wait for the drop that may come as others get bored and move on for my re-entry, or just take my profits and not look back. But I think this would be a mistake right now, since I believe that long-term AMLN will be trading much higher than where it is now. The recent numbers, while not as fantastic as I would have liked, still show plenty of strength for AMLN, and there's a lot of room for it to grow. I don't see any reason for it climbing anytime in the immediate future, though, and it may see $30 before it sees $40, but I'm certain that it'll see $40 eventually, so I will probably not be selling AMLN anytime soon.

[Websman]

AMLN has a huge gap that might possibly fill... then again, it may not. If it does, I will take advantage of a huge bargain.

[Lyehopper]

Jiesen,

What do you make of AMLN sitting on the 50dma for three straight days? Is its next move up or down.

My call is down.

[jiesen]

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=AMLN&t=6m&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=m50&a=&c=

Ok, so now that it's an established double bounce off the 50 day MA, what do you tech experts predict is next for AMLN? Note that last time there was a double bounce off the 50-day MA the stock jumped $10 in a week. Will this happen again? Or will it be a $20 jump this time?

(of course I am just spouting nonsense right now, as I have technically no clue)

[spikefader]

Sheesh, that really is a wicked double top on the weekly. But it IS coming off a c long on the weekly. jiesen, even you can see the 12345abc move right?? hehe

I see 37.58 gap fill resisting strongly, and then channel resistance at 38.35ish. If I were long, there is absolutely no question I'd be selling it there and wait. In fact, I'd be tempted to buy puts or short there. NB may even say he'd sell calls. NB? Would ya??

BUT: If it breaks out over that double top, woohoo! It's going to 50 pretty quickly.

[jiesen]

Sheesh, that really is a wicked double top on the weekly. But it IS coming off a c long on the weekly. jiesen, even you can see the 12345abc move right?? hehe

I see 37.58 gap fill resisting strongly, and then channel resistance at 38.35ish. If I were long, there is absolutely no question I'd be selling it there and wait. In fact, I'd be tempted to buy puts or short there. NB may even say he'd sell calls. NB? Would ya??

BUT: If it breaks out over that double top, woohoo! It's going to 50 pretty quickly.

watch out! AMLN is sneaking up on 40!

[spikefader]

watch out! AMLN is sneaking up on 40!

Dude! I'm still hugely bullish on it. And it's got those delicious scallops bullish pattern.



A qualdruple top breakout; shoot, this one is worth some calls!

[JMS]

Amln

Looks like AMLN has finally made it over $40. Awesome!!!
I am slightly concerned about the GLIP antagonists in the clinic as possible competitors.
What is your opinion Jaisen?

Thanks
JMS

[jiesen]

You mean GLP-1 agonists, right? No, I'd not be worried about competition in this area, because Byetta actually IS a GLP-1 agonist, and the first to market at that. If another were to come to market, it would have to be demonstrated to be more effective than Byetta, and there really isn't anything close to that right now. These things take years (or decades sometimes) to get through all the clinical and regulatory hoops to make it on the market. AMLN is practically one of a kind in that they made it with a novel diabetes treatment (two, actually!). Competition could be considered stiff coming from SNY/PFE's Exubera, but that's still insulin, which is an inferior treatment to a GLP-1 agonist. Novartis has an interesting candidate that may compete, eventually, in a DPPIV inhibitor, which works like a GLP-1 agonist, but again that's still a ways off (2008 at the earliest) but it would still have to prove to be better than Byetta if it's going to really steal market share from them. The only thing it has going over Byetta is that it's an oral rather than injectible. But that difference is highly overrated by the investment community. By the time they make it to maket, AMLN will probably have LARS on the market, and have sold enough Byetta to buy whatever else is new in the diabetes arena. They are working on new business deals even now that will solidify their pipeline and their position as a leader in the market for years to come. Byetta is huge, but it is just the beginning for AMLN. Also, you can't buy another successful diabetes drug company like AMLN, the rest (PFE, LLY, SNY, NVS etc) all have the big pharma baggage that comes with it.

[jiesen]

I'm just throwing that out there in response to your concern about AMLN's competition- but I should qualify this by saying I'm really not an expert, and can't pretend that I really have all the facts straight here. So please, if you know more about this, feel free to correct me where I'm wrong. I'm sorry if it seems like I'm pumping AMLN, but I am excited about owning this stock, and am just rambling off my own reasons for feeling this way- not claiming that I know everything about it- my understanding of the diabetes drug market, or of AMLN for that matter, could turn out to be 100% wrong... so take this all with a grain of salt, please! thought I should add a disclaimer that I'm coming off of a slight buzz tonight, too.

more info...
how Byetta works:

http://www.byetta.com/hcp/200_incretin_mimetic.jsp?reqNavId=2

how Byetta and Symlin are selling:

http://members.cox.net/mystock/Amylin.htm

note- $20M last quarter, heading for $50-60M this quarter. Should see a $1B+ year in the not too distant future.

[Lyehopper]

I got me some Jiesen @ 40.50

might be breaking out for real now.

[jiesen]

I got me some Jiesen @ 40.50

might be breaking out for real now.

Cool. We'll be riding this AMLN bull together then!