Market Watch

[dmk112]

Here's a chart explaining the business cycle's effects on the various aspects of our economy:


Click on the chart; then click again.

Very interesting chart NB!

[dmk112]

I have made an interesting observation on the VIX. Both the $VIX (fear index for S&P 500) & $VXN (fear index for Naz) have generated bullish breakouts on the P&F charts in the last days of this decline.

Now what I think this means that we are heading for more "fear" which usually means that we are going to decline further before heading north again. The target on the P&F is 24 which is quite a large target. Based on the weekly I am targeting somewhere around 18-20 which is still a fairly large decline.

Therefore, I would be careful on the longside here as we can expect some more selling to occur and I would advise considering some shorts in the mean time.

Here's the chart:

[ForeverInvesting]

Nice observation, dmk112. Can you say "money for bears"?

[skiracer]

DMK112,
Nice work with the charts. What you've shown and said makes sense. The only thing I would add to the scenario is that there are alot of decent stocks that got hammered this past week and are pretty much oversold probably abit more than they should be. Sometimes I get that gut feeling when looking at a stock and it just jumps out at me as being way to cheap at these levels regardless of what the market, sector, and group charts are telling me or how I feel about the stock or markets in general. I'm not forecasting a rally by any means but I know the patterns and how other traders think. This past week left alot of decent stocks way down off their recent highs which I'm sure will be presenting some good looking opportunities for short term swings at the beginning of the week. The charts won't be giving anyone that info but if you're able to sit and watch the action on Monday morning I'm betting that there will be a number of great opportunities for day trades and short term swing trades. Just keep a close watch on your stops under the circumstances.

[dmk112]

DMK112,
Nice work with the charts. What you've shown and said makes sense. The only thing I would add to the scenario is that there are alot of decent stocks that got hammered this past week and are pretty much oversold probably abit more than they should be. Sometimes I get that gut feeling when looking at a stock and it just jumps out at me as being way to cheap at these levels regardless of what the market, sector, and group charts are telling me or how I feel about the stock or markets in general. I'm not forecasting a rally by any means but I know the patterns and how other traders think. This past week left alot of decent stocks way down off their recent highs which I'm sure will be presenting some good looking opportunities for short term swings at the beginning of the week. The charts won't be giving anyone that info but if you're able to sit and watch the action on Monday morning I'm betting that there will be a number of great opportunities for day trades and short term swing trades. Just keep a close watch on your stops under the circumstances.

I think the decent stocks that got hammered will bounce (and already did start on Friday) but I think the bounce is short lived and it will be a good short opportunity. I do think that after this move down we will get a tradeable rally....maybe in November??

[New-born baby]

October

I think the decent stocks that got hammered will bounce (and already did start on Friday) but I think the bounce is short lived and it will be a good short opportunity. I do think that after this move down we will get a tradeable rally....maybe in November??

October always stinks, doesn't it?

[dmk112]

Hey NB, where in the cycle are we? According to your chart you posted.

[New-born baby]

We are right here!

Hey NB, where in the cycle are we? According to your chart you posted.

DMK:
I'd say we are somewhere near to leaving "late expansion" and entering "early contraction." Just right past where it says "market top."

It might be helpful to remember that a business cycle generally runs for years, say 3-4 years or so. So it is a long term chart. I personally expect stocks to decline at this time. Elliott Wave charts covering decades seem to indicate this, as well as Dow Theory charts showing that the NAZ has four times failed to bust overhead resistance and turned back hard (just last week). Likewise the Dow, too, collided with resistance.

[New-born baby]

US savings rate

I saw on the news this morning that the US savings rate hit 0.0% in the month of June, 2005. That's the lowest rate since the Great Depression.

[Runner]

PPP could go either way here..



GDP may give short signal under trendline.

[dmk112]

Keep coming with those runner... look poised for a b/d

[dmk112]

Runner, where did you post that list of stocks that broke support last week, I can't find it anywhere!

[Runner]

DMK, I thought it was on this thread here back a page or two. I'm still bear on energy and many of these guys are setting up. I'm also seeing many getting slapped at the gap.

[Runner]

Here are some on my list http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/showpo...&postcount=177

[dmk112]

Went short on some oils this morning, I'm anticipating a break of the bear flag very soon.