Market Watch

[New-born baby]

Karel: Stop The Spam

I also have the new and improved fishing line technique that has been proven to out perform the markets consistently over the last decade. This one time bonus offer is free for those that sign up tonight before midnight.

The fishing line uses the best bate and my special 99 step approach will guarantee to work for anyone who follows all 99 steps in order and to the second. If you don’t land bigger winners within 50 years we will gladly refund a portion of you money. Hurry and go to your phones and call 1-007bounds and our operators are standing by.

This picture says it all. This picture was taken just yesterday. KAREL, DO SOMETHING ABOUT ALL THIS SPAM AROUND HERE!!!!!

[skiracer]

Runner,
The service is free, but for $209 per year, you can have up to the minute signals from Marty Chenard. The guy is good. Period. He called this collapse. He called the collapse we had about 8 weeks ago when TOL, KBH, etc fell down. He'll tell you when to get your money to safety,and when it is safe to re-enter. When he sounds a warning, I get my money off to the side, or short.

NBB,
I called TOL, KBH, and BMHC all to tank along with the housing sector awhile back if you recall. You can check it out on the your thread. If I remember correctly without going back and looking that Spike was calling for BHMC to go over $110, which I posted as being weak at the time, and that BHMC would follow them down because BHMC was tied at the hip with them. I gave you guys that info for nothing. I took a trial subscription to Marty a long time ago and didn't think he was anything special but to each his own.
As far as that body in motion stuff. They're all in motion one way or another either going up or down. Post his winning trades and how much money he has made and % up or down over the last 6 to 12 months. That's a much better indication of how good he is.

[Runner]

NB, hey nothing wrong with that. I’ve never been a member of a site that sends warnings. You talk highly of this Marty Chenard. My own chart research is favoring day trading on high volatile stocks or even a quick swing trade. Yesterdays signal I received from my chart showed best time to enter. Now we bounced but now the question is how high? I personally think we will see more downward pressure in the weeks ahead, but then again nobody knows with certain accuracy.

Here is a very simple chart of the COMPQX and believe it or not I often draw an arrow on the chart to remind me of the direction of the trend. Sounds crazy but works.

[Runner]

Here is my real high speed chart of the COMPQX. This is a monthly long range chart. 2004-2005 not the best of friends as far as trending!!

[Runner]

NBB,
I called TOL, KBH, and BMHC all to tank along with the housing sector awhile back if you recall. You can check it out on the your thread. If I remember correctly without going back and looking that Spike was calling for BHMC to go over $110, which I posted as being weak at the time, and that BHMC would follow them down because BHMC was tied at the hip with them. I gave you guys that info for nothing. I took a trial subscription to Marty a long time ago and didn't think he was anything special but to each his own.
As far as that body in motion stuff. They're all in motion one way or another either going up or down. Post his winning trades and how much money he has made and % up or down over the last 6 to 12 months. That's a much better indication of how good he is.

I remember when you turned Bearish and most were Bullish. Great job Ski.

[b_cadvantag]

Here's a chart explaining the business cycle's effects on the various aspects of our economy:


Click on the chart; then click again.

NewBorn,

I really like the chart! Thanks for posting it!

When I view it some of the words get blurred. Can you post the source of the chart? I want to print off a readable copy to paste next to my computer.

Thanks!
Tag

[spikefader]

NBB,
I called TOL, KBH, and BMHC all to tank along with the housing sector awhile back if you recall. You can check it out on the your thread. If I remember correctly without going back and looking that Spike was calling for BHMC to go over $110, which I posted as being weak at the time, and that BHMC would follow them.....I gave you guys that info for nothing.

Ski, maybe you should go back and check the threads. You sure aren't doing a good job describing my call for higher prices (correct by the way), nor are you accurately informing the transition from bullish to bearish bias that I made for BMHC (all posted). If you're going to quote me and talk about value of calls then please take the time to properly research my posts. You sound a bit frustrated about paid services and your own ability, and frankly, you're doing a bit of mudslinging chest-beating dude.

Use the advanced search feature, put in BMHC and spikefader as the poster and you'll see all my posts about BMHC and you'll quickly see that I've been very accurate for it's movement.

My bullish call made 6 points or 7% profit before the double top was put in and it stalled at price resistance. I corrected spotted the double top after it dropped from 99 to 90 in 2 days and I turned bearish on it and called bearish to 66.00 - after it SHOWED something bearish. And I've been correct on that call too, making 14 points out of it.

And here are the posts:
9.23.05 A.M http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/showpo...postcount=1305 bullish call when it was 92.00, retreated to no worse than 91.00 or -1% on the call, and stormed to 99.19 making 7%.

10.1.05 Saturday prior to it's pop and stall to 99.19 double top: http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/showpo...postcount=1395
"No, I think you're nuts for opining BMHC stock/option prices are going to fall from here (93.26). My target is 105-110 in the next few weeks." "nothing I see to call it short yet" "little ascending going on the last 8 days, might could turn into a bigger 20 day ascending triangle soon, consolidating vol by price at current levels....not things that favor writing calls".
I made that call on a Saturday after it closed the week at 93.26 and prior to the double top run up to 99.19. So my bullish call was correct and it made 6 points profit before it stalled. And these were the posted charts I was looking at:

http://img294.imageshack.us/img294/8426/bmhcoct11iv.jpg

http://img294.imageshack.us/img294/4554/bmhcweeklyoct18sf.jpg

Tell me what is bearish about either of those 2 charts please. At that time when I made that call it was bullish. Yes, near resistance, but nothing bearish that jumps from the page. Yes or no? Show me where you see weakness, and better, a posted chart depicting what you see.

10.6.05 1pm http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/showpo...postcount=4553 BMHC "Double top is in, minor channel bust today. It could see 66 in a hurry now ... it was looking so strong, and then it died. Such can happen as we know well enough."

10.6.05 8pm http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/showpo...postcount=1476 BMHC closed at 91.11 and I was reminding billyjoe about the bearish double top. re gap, "If that doesn't hold, it's in trouble".

[skiracer]

Ski, maybe you should go back and check the threads. You sure aren't doing a good job describing my call for higher prices (correct by the way), nor are you accurately informing the transition from bullish to bearish bias that I made for BMHC (all posted). If you're going to quote me and talk about value of calls then please take the time to properly research my posts. You sound a bit frustrated about paid services and your own ability, and frankly, you're doing a bit of mudslinging chest-beating dude.

Use the advanced search feature, put in BMHC and spikefader as the poster and you'll see all my posts about BMHC and you'll quickly see that I've been very accurate for it's movement.

My bullish call made 6 points or 7% profit before the double top was put in and it stalled at price resistance. I corrected spotted the double top after it dropped from 99 to 90 in 2 days and I turned bearish on it and called bearish to 66.00 - after it SHOWED something bearish. And I've been correct on that call too, making 14 points out of it.

And here are the posts:
9.23.05 A.M http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/showpo...postcount=1305 bullish call when it was 92.00, retreated to no worse than 91.00 or -1% on the call, and stormed to 99.19 making 7%.

10.1.05 Saturday prior to it's pop and stall to 99.19 double top: http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/showpo...postcount=1395
"No, I think you're nuts for opining BMHC stock/option prices are going to fall from here (93.26). My target is 105-110 in the next few weeks." "nothing I see to call it short yet" "little ascending going on the last 8 days, might could turn into a bigger 20 day ascending triangle soon, consolidating vol by price at current levels....not things that favor writing calls".
I made that call on a Saturday after it closed the week at 93.26 and prior to the double top run up to 99.19. So my bullish call was correct and it made 6 points profit before it stalled. And these were the posted charts I was looking at:

http://img294.imageshack.us/img294/8426/bmhcoct11iv.jpg

http://img294.imageshack.us/img294/4554/bmhcweeklyoct18sf.jpg

Tell me what is bearish about either of those 2 charts please. At that time when I made that call it was bullish. Yes, near resistance, but nothing bearish that jumps from the page. Yes or no? Show me where you see weakness, and better, a posted chart depicting what you see.

10.6.05 1pm http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/showpo...postcount=4553 BMHC "Double top is in, minor channel bust today. It could see 66 in a hurry now ... it was looking so strong, and then it died. Such can happen as we know well enough."

10.6.05 8pm http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/showpo...postcount=1476 BMHC closed at 91.11 and I was reminding billyjoe about the bearish double top. re gap, "If that doesn't hold, it's in trouble".

Spike,
Your 9/23 post infered that you were extremely bullish on BMHC. "This thing is gonna rock" and "this thing is gonna fly" are your direct quotes.
Your 10/01 post stated that your target was $105 to $110 and maybe even $120.
On 10/06 you changed your feelling on the stock and felt it could now go to $66.
The stock did go up over $95/96 area right after your 9/23 post but never held that level and never got over $100 or anywhere near $105/$110 range. It bounced around a bit in the $90 range but in the time frame from 9/23 to your post on 10/06, approximately 13 days, it did take a big fall and NBB proved everyone wrong. I was only generally stating what you stated in your post on 9/23 where you called it to go to $105/$110 range.
I don't really give a shit who is right or wrong an I certainly wasn't trying to belittle or make you look bad in any respect much less mudslinging.
As far as frustration with paid services or my own ability I was only stating the obvious. NB comes up with how great the guy is and nothing to substantiate anything. I tried the guy's subscription once and personally though he was bullshit. As far as my ability I only have to prove that to my bank and trading account totals and no one else. Anytime I've ever posted anything here or anywhere I've substantiated it with facts to back up whatever it is that I'm talking about. I don't have to prove anything except to myself.
I've never crowed or beat my chest about any of my scores or positive outcomes on positions I've taken or spoken about on this forum. In this particular case I was just stating what numbers you actually posted between 9/23 and 10/01 an how you felt about the stock. Those levels never materialized but what did materialize was the call on the housing sector and that group of stocks and BMHC in particular just the way I thought it would play out.

[skiracer]

Sorry about the double up there. I liked the article so much I had to post it twice.
I think this outfit hit the nail right on the head. "Spending based on heavy borrowing from an appreciating asset is a dangerous way for an economy to grow. When the asset prices stop growing and start to decline the wealth disappears, but the debt remains". I'm not forecasting anything especially another recession or depression but there is a substantial amount of debt out there an most of it is leveraged on peoples home values. With a decline in home values and the housing sector in general it could be the catalyst to cause big problems economically for the general public and the country which in turn will cause big problems in the stock markets across the board.

[billyjoe]

Ski,
Imagine if the market does drop 40%. You've got a large % of your assets in #1. Your home which is now grossly devalued and maybe more heavily mortgaged.
#2. Your business which may also go down the toilet with the economy
#3. Your retirement funds . If in common stocks or mutual funds also take a big dip. A triple screwjob. Put any cash you can hoard in the mattress before it's too late.

billyjoe

[skiracer]

Billyjoe,
You're absolutely correct an I don't think it would take as much as a 40% correction. I'm not quite that pessimestic but I am a realist an believe something like that could happen. Once the ball gets rolling it becomes like the domino effect an everyone starts running for the exits with their money in hand. As a hedge I have been buying silver bars over the past couple of years with whatever extra I can afford and taking possession of the actual bars. I think that silver will take off in the next couple of years with increasing demand for it in a number of technical and domestic products. It's relatively cheap now and hasn't caught on like gold.

[spikefader]

...I was only generally stating what you stated ... I don't really give a shit who is right or wrong ..... wasn't trying to belittle ... much less mudslinging......Anytime I've ever posted anything here or anywhere I've substantiated it with facts to back up whatever it is that I'm talking about.

Well it doesn't seem so in this case does it? Ski, I don't get you sometimes. "It never got anywhere near 105"? What are you talking about? It got half way there....that's gotta count for something If it had died in the butt from my call, then yep, I'll stand up and say the call was wrong. But it didn't. It rallied 7% before the fall. OK, it was another 7% short of my target, but lord man, don't leave it open for people to read what you say and think I got it soooooo wrong and your bias was soooo right.

Fact is I've been bearish for the last 14 point ride down, and I would have appreciated you "generally stating" that too. The truth is important to me, and I'm sure it is to you too. You posted a single seemingly 'wrong' call by me, after a big move against the call, while you were talking about paid services on calls. I take offense to that.

[skiracer]

Well it doesn't seem so in this case does it? Ski, I don't get you sometimes. "It never got anywhere near 105"? What are you talking about? It got half way there....that's gotta count for something If it had died in the butt from my call, then yep, I'll stand up and say the call was wrong. But it didn't. It rallied 7% before the fall. OK, it was another 7% short of my target, but lord man, don't leave it open for people to read what you say and think I got it soooooo wrong and your bias was soooo right.

Fact is I've been bearish for the last 14 point ride down, and I would have appreciated you "generally stating" that too. The truth is important to me, and I'm sure it is to you too. You posted a single seemingly 'wrong' call by me, after a big move against the call, while you were talking about paid services on calls. I take offense to that.

Spike,
It was never my intention to make you look bad or to take anything away from your expertise or for me to look better for that. I'm sorry if that's the way it turned and looks or that you perceive it. It was just meant to be a generalized point that apparently has gotten misconstrued beyond anything that I meant by the post in the first place. The one thing that I don't want to do is alienate myself or anyone else here from one another. You do more for people here than anyone does with your take on charts an every other question they ask of you. I'm sorry if I offended you or took anything away from your abilities at analysis an opinions regarding any of your posts. I'm only interested in the general harmony between everyone who posts here and want to maintain that level of cooperation with everyone. To paraphrase you, "it's all good". An one other point. You're right the stock did make a nice move up around 7/8% after your call and I would be happy with 7.8% on a short term swing trade anytime if I could get out with that.

[Runner]

Here is a performance overview on the Q’s. Nothing to get excited about here. Really we’ve only had a few up trending months.
Jan- trend down tradable on the short side total trend worth 13.05%
May- trend up tradable Long trend worth 10.52%
Jun- trend Down tradable short worth 5.02%
July- trend up tradable worth 9.15%
Aug- trend down tradable worth 3.10%
After Aug range really not worth playing as the range tightens into a choppy mess.
So far Year to date the Q’s have managed to move -3.65%. Nothing to write home about. Now the results are much better if one properly played the trends. One might have made 48.18% only if timing was exact. Now we all know that is not likely but even cut that number in half and you have over 20% in a market that is currently negative for the year..

I would like for the Q’s to get out of this current range one way or the other.

[Runner]

Believe it or not Mr. Market does use Technical Analysis in his method of trading. Sure he also uses the fundamentals to see how well a company is growing, but what he does is identify a trend and enter what is called a random entry in the direction of the trend. Once a trend is identified he has a 60% chance that the trend will continue (according to Tharp). Now ya see Mr. Market does a pretty god job of using technical analysis in his trading methods.. I’ve looked at several of his stock picks and the common denominator is a strong trend. It is even possible that his methods return better results then many technical guys trying to trade some fancy pattern. 95% of traders spend 95% of their time trying to find a perfect entry and then they only spent a fraction of time trying to figure how to handle the position once in.

A trader named Tom Basso tried using the random entry approach with a “coin flip”. Here was his system. Determine volatility of the market by a 10-day exponential moving average of the average true range. Initial stop was 3 times that volatility reading only taken at close of the day. The stop was trailed using 3x volatility. That was it. Toss a coin and enter long or short. His system made money on 80% of the runs and 100% of the runs when he used a 1% risk money management. He ran it in 10 different markets with always being in long or short.

Info from Van K. Tharp