Market Watch

[skiracer]

Runner,
I believe and accept that. It's said that 50% of the universe of stocks will follow the trend at that specific time period regardless of whether they are fundamentally strong or weak. I've never done any investigation of that claim but have just accepted it verbatim because I see that it does work out that way. Personally speaking I've always done better when I can determine a definite trend in the general markets, sectors, and groups, up or down, and base my trades and positions accordingly with that trend. It just makes sense to follow the direction it's going instead of trying to buck it.

[spikefader]

Spike,
...I'm sorry if I offended you...

No problemo ski. Appreciate it.

[Websman]

Ski,
Imagine if the market does drop 40%. You've got a large % of your assets in #1. Your home which is now grossly devalued and maybe more heavily mortgaged.
#2. Your business which may also go down the toilet with the economy
#3. Your retirement funds . If in common stocks or mutual funds also take a big dip. A triple screwjob. Put any cash you can hoard in the mattress before it's too late.

billyjoe

#4. The "Vulcans Who Short for Fun" thread could become real popular.

[skiracer]

This is an outfit that I subscribe to and if you visit the site you can view all of their trades and archives of those trades and reports that Deron issues on a daily an intraday basis as they setup. I have been with this outfit for a couple of years now and have taken probably at least 95% of his trades. It's really worth taking a look at an the free 1 month trial is like a college education from a very professional trader who explains everything he is going to do in detail. This was where I first got the notion on BHMC which turned out to be one of the most profitable positions this year. I was down on the housing sector before this but I think they went hand in hand with the setup on BHMC which was Deron's pick not mine. Anyway taking a look at the his site would never hurt anyone. The free 1 month trials to the ETF report and the Stalk Sheet will definitely make you money over the course of the month trial. If you don't come out of it with a better understanding of how a professional swing trader and hedge fund owner/operator works I would be really surprised. The site address is www.morpheustradinggroup.com.

[spikefader]

Not to be too critical, but realistically, that BMHC entry isn't a very good one. It saw immediate pain up to 5% before the drop. Where was their suggested stop? Do they normally 'chase' short entries in this way?

[skiracer]

Not to be too critical, but realistically, that BMHC entry isn't a very good one. It saw immediate pain up to 5% before the drop. Where was their suggested stop? Do they normally 'chase' short entries in this way?

Spike,
The 2nd chart down shows the whole trade setup. Their initial entry was 86.36 and their initial stop was placed at 94.20 which was 7.84 or 8.3 % above their entry. The rest is basically self-explanatory as to what their plan and logic on the trade was and how they placed their trailing stops as the stock broke to the downside. I have to agree the r/r was higher, in this case the r/r was around .55 %, than their normal r/r on their short positions, and the stock did move higher after their initial entry but the trade did turn out to be a beautiful thing. He explained his reasoning pretty thoroughly on the setup and why they made the trade in the accompanying paragraphs with the charts. I don't really know what was going on in his head other than how he explained the setup and reasoning behind the trade. No they don't chase entries an I don't think they were chasing in this case but playing out what they thought was a decent setup. But as you know from your own experience nothing is written in stone and what one person believes to be a great setup isn't to another person. They would have exited the trade immediately if it had hit their stop and maybe re-entered after the fact but it didn't turn out that way. Since we had gotten into a discussion on BHMC before this I only wanted to show some of the reasoning behind why I felt the way I did about the stock. I actually had a short position in it while all this was going on and covered right around where they exited. I've done phenomenally well with this outfit and was only trying to give an example of one of their trade setups. I'm sure if a dozen people were asked to give their opinion of the trade there would be a dozen different approaches and feelings both positive and negative. In this case it turned out pretty good. I'm certainly not trying to prove anything or shove anything down anyone's throat. The guy also runs a pretty good sized hedge fund of his own so it's not like he doesn't know what he's doing, but then again to each his own. I was only trying to pass on what I thought might be a good thing. It doesn't mean a thing to me whether anyone looks into it or not.

[spikefader]

Spike,
The 2nd chart down shows the whole trade setup. Their initial entry was 86.36 and their initial stop was placed at 94.20 which was 7.84 or 8.3 % above their entry. The rest is basically self-explanatory as to what their plan and logic on the trade was and how they placed their trailing stops as the stock broke to the downside. I have to agree the r/r was higher, in this case the r/r was around .55 %, than their normal r/r on their short positions, and the stock did move higher after their initial entry but the trade did turn out to be a beautiful thing. He explained his reasoning pretty thoroughly on the setup and why they made the trade in the accompanying paragraphs with the charts. I don't really know what was going on in his head other than how he explained the setup and reasoning behind the trade. No they don't chase entries an I don't think they were chasing in this case but playing out what they thought was a decent setup. But as you know from your own experience nothing is written in stone and what one person believes to be a great setup isn't to another person. They would have exited the trade immediately if it had hit their stop and maybe re-entered after the fact but it didn't turn out that way. Since we had gotten into a discussion on BHMC before this I only wanted to show some of the reasoning behind why I felt the way I did about the stock. I actually had a short position in it while all this was going on and covered right around where they exited. I've done phenomenally well with this outfit and was only trying to give an example of one of their trade setups. I'm sure if a dozen people were asked to give their opinion of the trade there would be a dozen different approaches and feelings both positive and negative. In this case it turned out pretty good. I'm certainly not trying to prove anything or shove anything down anyone's throat. The guy also runs a pretty good sized hedge fund of his own so it's not like he doesn't know what he's doing, but then again to each his own. I was only trying to pass on what I thought might be a good thing. It doesn't mean a thing to me whether anyone looks into it or not.

Thanks for that ski. Yeah, 8% risk is pretty high - for me anyway. Glad you're doing so well with them though. Next time they have a setup for a short where they short into strength post it for us as a little taste of their hedge fund skill at resistances. By the way, a lot of hedge funds lose money too. But you like 'em and I'll trust you that they are good. If I ever lose the ability to pick stocks and time entries well I'll look 'em up.

Frankly though, I think people could learn a whole lot more just hanging out in this forum. There are some very smart cookies here.

But thanks for the link and the info anyway dude, and good luck trading their picks.

[skiracer]

Spike,
Not for anything but I've mentioned this guy and his site a number of times on this forum and over at the IBD place and out of probably hundreds and maybe thousands only 4 or 5 people have tried it and they have become believers. This guy's discipline and strategys are his own and like yourself he believes in them and his setups and sticks to them religiously. I like him for a number of reasons. The money and gains foremost but the education a very close second. He's brought me out of the woods so to speak. Not that I wasn't making a few dollars here and there but nowhere near what I've done with him. Aside from that I still do my own analysis and never ever put my monies up front for him or anyone without careful consideration. His style and personality and mine seem to gel which makes it that much better.

I wouldn't want anyone to think that all he does is pick winners because that would be far from the truth. I would say that 3/4 out of 10/11 setups turn out to be gainers. The rest get stopped out. The logic behind his discipline is that he honors his stops cutting his losses short and lets the winners run out getting the most out of the gainers. Simple if you can control your emotions and mindset.

I do agree with you whole heartedly that any newbies an experienced traders that come across this site are lucky in the respect that they can get alot of great info from people like yourself who will go out of their way to help them out. I have picked up alot of info on the TA from a number of people on this forum not to mention a few great setups which never hurts.

There are two reasons that I don't post his setups here. The first is that I pay $149 a month for the Stalk Sheet an another $49 for the ETF report. Anyone can get a free 1 month trial to either one or both and then make up their minds whether or not it is for them. You still have to put up the money to get the trades and have enough self control to follow his lead to some degree so it's not a for sure thing with most people. The second reason is that I'm very supersticious about these trades and everytime I open my mouth they go the other way for some reason or another. In my own opinion the free trial offers are worth it to just be able to watch his action for a month and to see what it is all about. You know remaining open minded is all part of it and doesn't take anything away from one's own abilities. But it's all good.

[dmk112]

Do you guys want to start a thread for paid services? LOL....

[dmk112]

Well as expected, the bounce is getting sold in nearly every sector, especially the energy...

Runner, are you shorting anything?

[Websman]

Do you guys want to start a thread for paid services? LOL....

I can post a link to my Paypal account if anyone wants to pay me for my Vulcan logic.

[Runner]

I’m review of many charts I feel comfortable with sitting out for awhile. I’m really not seeing many long set-ups that interest me at this time. I’ve posted last week that I thought the SOX might set up short and I still think it might. Energy is looking interesting as well.

I had a target on the S&P5oo of 1200 before we plunge down and not even sure if that target will get hit. Sure the Indices did not drop horribly today but damage was done never the less. Out off 239 groups only 22 managed to get in positive territory.

Not sure if anyone looks at the Treasury Index but right now the 5 Yr is bumping up against old highs. 10 year trending upward and the 30 doing same. I thought I’d throw up a few charts with a twist!!

Here is a few weekly charts on the Treasury 5 10 30 yr





Short Term Interest


US $


Would be interested in others view regarding these charts

[Runner]

World Silver



World Gold

[skiracer]

When the big money rotates out of stocks this is where it goes for the interim. They always give a good indication of what to expect for a little ways out. Bumping against old highs is saying something. Very unpredictable market conditions right now.

[Runner]

When the big money rotates out of stocks this is where it goes for the interim. They always give a good indication of what to expect for a little ways out. Bumping against old highs is saying something. Very unpredictable market conditions right now.

Ski, that is exactly how I was seeing this also. I normally look at these charts once a week. This also helped in my thinking about standing on the side for a while....