Billyjoes Top 10 Cheap Stocks

[billyjoe]

Final Results Cheap Stock Portfolio Week 2 Reinvesting Gains in Best Performers

Although we had 5 advancers and 5 decliners for the week we couldn't overcome the devastating pre-market drop of HOM , -16.5%. due to improperly placed stop that cost the port an extra $9,500. Adding to the poor performance, of the 5 advancing stocks we had no superstock. Our biggest gainer for the week was GROW stopped early at a 3.7% gain. Here's our final totals. We compounded gains on three stocks of which one was stopped out today with a 2% stop. The other 2 (SPIL CGFW) lost 1.15% and .1% today.

GW---- stopped today $99,081

IFO---- stopped today $205,191 included funds from stopped GROW

SPIL----remained open $185,970 included funds from stopped HOM

CGFW-- remained open $196,336 included funds from stopped RWC

NBG---- remained open $98,552

BTJ---- remained open $101,137

TLF---- remained open $102,344

Total remaining funds $988,611 loss for week 1.14%

Had proper stop on HOM been in place $997,971 or .203% loss

billyjoe

[billyjoe]

Final Results Cheap Stocks Port Week 2 Hold em and Fold em Method . Keep all funds in cash if positions are stopped out. Add to total value of open positions.

HOM----- stopped at open price $83,528

IFO------ stopped on Fri. $103,627

GROW--- stopped on Tues. $103,679

RWC----- stopped on Wed. $94,510

GW-------stopped on Fri. $99,081

CGFW----not stopped $101,925

SPIL ---- not stopped $103,400

NBG----- not stopped $98,552

BTJ------not stopped $98,893

TLF -----not stopped $102,344

Total value $999,539 or loss of .046%

Had proper 7% stop been in place on HOM $1,009,039 gain of .9%

We will keep computing this port both ways until a definitely superior method emerges.

New top 10 will be listed tomorrow

billyjoe

[billyjoe]

Cheap Stocks Port Week 3 Nov.28th 2005

1.GROW 10.03---investment advice record keeping mailing services

2.MOSS 5.43----designs markets clothes mostly for Target stores

3. HOM 5.77----restoration of homes after fire,flood,wind damage

4. APLX 6.86----management software for planning budgeting forecasting

5. CYBS 7.47---electronic payment programs for business

6. TLF 5.24----retail leather goods

7. RWC 6.44----wireless mobile radios for govt. business public safety

8. COGO 6.03----Chinese manufacturer mobile handsets

9. ACTU 3.50----software providing decision making data

10. FPP 7.60----oil and gas exploration southwestern U.S.

billyjoe

[dmk112]

Billyjoe, I know it's too late, but check out TIII. Looks pretty good.

[billyjoe]

DMK,
I know, it just missed the top 10. I posted on it Portfolio of the Week after Webs pick. Ski also , but his info and mine don't agree. Seems to be coming up fast.

billyjoe

[billyjoe]

Week 3 Cheap Stock Portfolio

Opening and Closing Prices Monday

GROW 10.45-----10.39

MOSS 5.38------5.25

HOM 5.80 ------6.02

APLX 6.76------6.86

CYBS 7.57------7.49

TLF 5.17-------5.18

RWC 6.45-------6.50

COGO 6.00------6.15

ACTU 3.35------3.34

FPP 7.79-------7.59


5 advanced 5 declined none stopped out tomorrow stops will be 6% below opening prices


billyjoe

[billyjoe]

Tuesday Cheap Stock Portfolio

RWC and FPP stopped today down 6% each. The $94,000 remaining in each position will be reinvested in our 2 best positions GROW +6.3% and APLX +2.7%

Of the 8 remaining positions

GROW----+6.3%

HOM------+2.4%

APLX------+2.7% up 2.2% from today's open

COGO------+2.8% APLX gets the extra funds since COGO was only up .49% today

MOSS----- -.2%

CYBS----- -1.3%

TLF------- -1.0%

ACTU------ -2.7%

Tomorrow stops will be 5% below opening prices

billyjoe

[skiracer]

Billyjoe,
I'm not knocking the exercise because after going through them they provide a better insight into whether or not it would be worth it to even bother trying to do something like this in a real portfolio funded with real money. If you were investing the amounts you have allocated in each of the stocks at the end you would have a great deal of your capital in one or two stocks which in your exercise might provide a gain of 6/8% for the entire endeavor. Aside from all the work, and monitoring all of the positions as you eliminate down to the final one or two, do you feel that it would be worth doing it in realtime as opposed to finding individual setups. Personally I think it would be alot of money and work on the line for the return that you're going to end up with at the end. I feel the same way about Spikes cream of the crop exercise so I'm not singling out yours in any way. I just don't see the return for the expenditure of time, risk, and moneys involved over the course of the entire exercise. But that's just my own opinion and not meant to be taken in a derogatory fashion towards either one of the exercises. I was interested in hearing your unbiased feelings on whether or not you thought it to be a worthwhile method of using your capital after having gone through it over the last couple of weeks.

[billyjoe]

Ski,
I haven't yet made up my mind. Maybe in a few more weeks a pattern will develop showing whether the plan is worthwhile. Even a 1% gain per week average would be successful in my eyes. You're right , putting all the $$ into 1 or 2 stocks by week's end could be risky, but raising the stops to 2% each Friday takes much of the risk away. It was real interesting in week one seeing that a profit could be made with only 3 of 10 stocks gaining on the week. This week it's been very stable with not much movement even with these admittedly volatile low priced stocks. If we get a week with just 1 or 2 monster gains, we should show a nice return. I'll put all the results together after week 10 which will be January 13th.

billyjoe

[skiracer]

Billyjoe,
It will be interesting to see the final results. Are you going to include commission costs? I'm sure they would be nominal with someone like IB. I'm not trying to be negative, but just questioning the strategy, so please don't take it the wrong way. Anyway it will be interesting to see the final outcome of both exercises.

[billyjoe]

Ski,
Yes, I'm going to figure in commission costs so it will be as realistic as possible . Each week's gain/loss will be rolled over to the next week also.

billyjoe

[grebnet]

My thoughts

Billyjoe
I am intrigued by your idea and will look forward to any conclusions after several trials. Those conclusions will be specific(i think) to your screens and personal bias in choosing the stocks. I always find the one week period to be difficult in the contests on this site. One week is to long for a day trader and to short for a buy and hold guy/gal.

It may be instructional to add several other studies:

1.Buy and hold all ten for the whole period ie the first weeks picks. see how the outcome compares .

and/or

2. At the end of a week keep stocks still actice and divide the cashed out $ into the next weeks picks. You could keep stops on the rollover stocks set somewhere above the original buy price but a little looser than day to day drops. ie fixed at some % above buy...trying to make it act more like you might let your own portfolio run.

there may be other ideas out there.

Dont you like how Im trying to create more work for you

[spikefader]

Billyjoe,
I'm not knocking the exercise because after going through them they provide a better insight into whether or not it would be worth it to even bother trying to do something like this in a real portfolio funded with real money. If you were investing the amounts you have allocated in each of the stocks at the end you would have a great deal of your capital in one or two stocks which in your exercise might provide a gain of 6/8% for the entire endeavor. Aside from all the work, and monitoring all of the positions as you eliminate down to the final one or two, do you feel that it would be worth doing it in realtime as opposed to finding individual setups. Personally I think it would be alot of money and work on the line for the return that you're going to end up with at the end. I feel the same way about Spikes cream of the crop exercise so I'm not singling out yours in any way. I just don't see the return for the expenditure of time, risk, and moneys involved over the course of the entire exercise. But that's just my own opinion and not meant to be taken in a derogatory fashion towards either one of the exercises. I was interested in hearing your unbiased feelings on whether or not you thought it to be a worthwhile method of using your capital after having gone through it over the last couple of weeks.

Ski. Wonderful points here. I've been thinking the same about Creme of the Crop. It's a lot of effort and risk when you're towards the end of the system. Well, when I say a lot, how bad can it get? As low as I allow with stops I suppose. The upside on a real nice mover with 20 positions would be great. But your point of 'is it worth it at the end of the day' really is a good one. I'm not so sure it is, and would be interested in hearing others' views on it. At the end of the day, it's a fancy way of taking MM dump candidates and watching weak ones drop off until you've got a large exposure to one of them. Why not simple watch them all and stalk the smartest entries and limit the downside?? That seems to be a clever thing to do.

[skiracer]

Billyjoe
I am intrigued by your idea and will look forward to any conclusions after several trials. Those conclusions will be specific(i think) to your screens and personal bias in choosing the stocks. I always find the one week period to be difficult in the contests on this site. One week is to long for a day trader and to short for a buy and hold guy/gal.

It may be instructional to add several other studies:

1.Buy and hold all ten for the whole period ie the first weeks picks. see how the outcome compares .

and/or

2. At the end of a week keep stocks still actice and divide the cashed out $ into the next weeks picks. You could keep stops on the rollover stocks set somewhere above the original buy price but a little looser than day to day drops. ie fixed at some % above buy...trying to make it act more like you might let your own portfolio run.

there may be other ideas out there.

Dont you like how Im trying to create more work for you

Greb,
That's what this is all about isn't it. Talking about it an offering suggestions and questions relating to the exercise. Billyjoe, I was curious as to what you are using as stops. Could you explain them again for me. I know that you change them as some get stopped out and the week progresses with more money left in the remaining positions. Thanks.

[skiracer]

Ski. Wonderful points here. I've been thinking the same about Creme of the Crop. It's a lot of effort and risk when you're towards the end of the system. Well, when I say a lot, how bad can it get? As low as I allow with stops I suppose. The upside on a real nice mover with 20 positions would be great. But your point of 'is it worth it at the end of the day' really is a good one. I'm not so sure it is, and would be interested in hearing others' views on it. At the end of the day, it's a fancy way of taking MM dump candidates and watching weak ones drop off until you've got a large exposure to one of them. Why not simple watch them all and stalk the smartest entries and limit the downside?? That seems to be a clever thing to do.

Spike,
I can see that it's alot of work an am amazed at how thorough you've been with your exercise. I just don't have the time to do that. I think there will be weeks where the outcome might be phenominally high but there is always the risk factor and it becomes alot of money. I know you keep your stops close and tight an in the best spots but they still add up as they get stopped out and you're left with a couple of positions that you're relying on to stay on the + side. I do think it is a decent method and can and will work but it still is alot of work and alot of capital at risk. Anyway it's always good to take a close look at it to see whether or not it is worthwhile. I wouldn't have thought of it myself until you guys mentioned doing it. It's all a learning experience so it's all good.