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Originally posted by mooddude
So why not just short before earnings then? 
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No, the trick is to short the pop on earnings. But ya got to be disciplined becuz sometimes you can get a pop and runner. But I tell ya, last few years, selling the pop has earned some very nice dollars. And it can sometimes make no sense, except for the concept of buy the rumor sell the news. Good news doesn't always=bull move. Sometimes the smart big money has riden up on the expectation it'll be good news, only to sell the news when it is confirmed, and all the dumb money is buying the shares they are dumping. Gives them liquidity to sell into. They have money AND perhaps inside information. Don't seem right does it? Poor Joe Six Pack who doesn't really understand it all and buys the good news is left to squirm in red, with a distinct risk of being a bag-holder for a while. -
Spike,
I think what both mooddude and myself are thinking is there seems to be more of a chance nowadays that they'll be a drop instead of a pop.
billyjoeComment
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I think that the best rule one can learn is that "if news are good the stock will jump" and that "if news are bad the stock will sink". However, I made my comment to say that there was more negative bias for the stocks that billyjoe mentioned. So I figured the rule really was to short, not long
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Top 10 Cheap Stock Portfolio Week 2 Nov.21st
1. HOM 6.69 home restoration after floods wind Florida Texas California
2. IFO 9.67 wireless handsets U.S.A. Mexico
3. GROW 8.50 investment advice , records , mailing , distribution
4. RWC 6.69 manufact. wireless 2 way radios business , govt., public safety
5. CGFW 9.46 security products govt. internet commerce
6. SPIL 4.98 Taiwan semiconductors
7. NBG 8.33 banking financial sevices Greece and 17 other countries
8. BTJ 8.12 marine earthquake detectors mini clutches brakes motors
9. GW 7.59 onshore gas drilling gulf coast and rocky mtns.
10. TLF 5.10 leather retail stores
Next week we'll continue figuring the portfolio using 2 different methods #1 Hold and Fold --- sell if they are stopped out keep in cash let the others run and total it up at week's end
#2 Reinvest with the best after selling the rest. Sell all that are stopped out and put money into best performing remaining open positions. Total up remaining positions at week's end.
billyjoeComment
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Wow billyjoe! Very nice dude. Glad to see that leveraging worked positive for you too (in the face of a buy 'n hold loss)!Originally posted by billyjoe
Congrats dude.
I suspect that our combined results over the months ahead might even convince the most die-hard buy-and-holder change the way they think about buy and hold.
Looking forward to next week's results for Method #2 and the next Superstock Hey, after 10 weeks you should run a Superstock Shootout to get the MegaSuperStock! hehe
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And speaking of earnings plays, guys, I'd really like to see a thread dedicated to earnings plays. I'd do it but I don't have any more time left.
I invite ANYONE (lurkers included) to step up and volunteer to run an earnings playbook and make a completely new thread titled something like "Earnings Plays; trading the volatility" ........ or sumfin like that, with realtime entry and exit calls, perhaps using stops (or if not perhaps dollar-cost averaging) to attempt to turn a paper profit.
1) It would be interesting and fun to watch and
2) Itwould provide some good educational material.
Who's gonna step up and run it? You, you, YOU?Comment
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Billy this will no dought turn out to be a really popular link. My only ouestion at this time Is how did you come up with GROW?Ray LongComment
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Hey Ray,
I think you are Ray 6 pack. Joe 6 pack must be some other guy. I found GROW by running a bunch of screens on stocks under 10.00. You can find a bunch of different sites to do this on Google. Figure out what you consider to be the most important categories to screen for such as earnings ,sales, profit etc. I found about 15 different to use. Then count up the number of times each stock shows up on the list. This week my paper had 33 lines so that's as far as I could go in each category. GROW showed up on the list in sales growth , earnings growth, profit , mutual fund purchases, and some others. Two others are almost tied with it : IFO and RWC . HOM dominated this week's screens by far. The one problem is determining what values to put on each screen such as is profit more valuable than earnings growth? You just have to rank them by what you think is more important. Some people would never buy GROW because it only trades 51,400 shares on average , but I didn't penalize it for that.
billyjoeComment
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Originally posted by spikefader
I wish I had the knowledge to do this for you..... give me another 4 months and I will be there.
DenaComment
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Hey Billy thanks for your answer thought I was the only guy throwing darts. I was just wondering about Joe 6 pack might be a relative.Ray LongComment
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Week of Nov.21 Cheap Stock Portfolio
Opening Price Followed by 7% Stop
1.HOM 6.86---6.38
2.IFO 9.65---8.97
3.GROW 8.97---8.34
4. RWC 6.74---6.27
5. CFGW 9.35--8.70
6. SPIL 5.00--4.65
7. NBG 8.28--7.70
8. BTJ 8.13--7.56
9. GW 7.62--7.09
10. TLF 5.12--4.76
billyjoeComment
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Nothing stopped out yet . 8 of 10 up with the first 3 HOM IFO and GROW all up big. This could be a very interesting week.
billyjoeComment
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Nothing stopped out today advancers 8 decliners 2
Big Movers GROW +11.29% IFO +7.55% BTJ +4.68%
billyjoeComment
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Our trailing stop has knocked out GROW at 9.30 with a 3.7% gain
billyjoeComment
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Billy what was the stop that knocked GROW out? Looks like It Is moving upRay LongComment
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