Billyjoes Top 10 Cheap Stocks

[billyjoe]

What do I know. 9 of 10 open higher with only MIG opening at same as Friday close. At last check ERS was up over 10%.

Opening Prices

1. AOB 7.50 stop 6.97

2. LPSN 5.23 stop 4.86

3. COGO 6.50 stop 6.04

4. HOM 6.55 stop 6.09

5. IFO 9.96 stop 9.26

6. GROW 7.40 stop 6.88

7. ERS 8.67 stop 8.06

8. ENG 6.07 stop 5.65

9. CBIZ 6.20 stop 5.77

10. MIG 6.08 stop 5.66

billyjoe

[billyjoe]

These 7% stops are brutal. HOM good report, up 11% at last quote but sellers bailed at 6 so stop triggered it's out. I bought in real life at 6.36.

IFO stopped out. Will any make it to week's end? AOB and COGO report later today.

billyjoe

[billyjoe]

AOB down and out. 2 earnings reports , 2 stop outs , will COGO follow the trend?

billyjoe

[billyjoe]

Final results Nov.14th

Open Close

1. AOB 7.50 6.05 bad earnings report stopped out

2. LPSN 5.23 5.33

3. COGO 6.50 6.29 earnings due any minute watch out

4. HOM 6.55 6.28 stopped out after good earnings rpt. many bailed at 6.00

5. IFO 9.96 9.25 stopped out dropped to 8.80 at one point

6. GROW 7.40 7.68 a good day

7. ERS 8.67 9.42 a great day

8. ENG 6.07 6.24 not bad

9. CBIZ 6.20 6.03

10. MIG 6.08 6.07

Our top 10 is down to 7 with AOB HOM and IFO saying bye bye

billyjoe

[skiracer]

Final results Nov.14th

Open Close

1. AOB 7.50 6.05 bad earnings report stopped out

2. LPSN 5.23 5.33

3. COGO 6.50 6.29 earnings due any minute watch out

4. HOM 6.55 6.28 stopped out after good earnings rpt. many bailed at 6.00

5. IFO 9.96 9.25 stopped out dropped to 8.80 at one point

6. GROW 7.40 7.68 a good day

7. ERS 8.67 9.42 a great day

8. ENG 6.07 6.24 not bad

9. CBIZ 6.20 6.03

10. MIG 6.08 6.07

Our top 10 is down to 7 with AOB HOM and IFO saying bye bye

billyjoe

Billyjoe,
Isn't being disciplined, sticking to a plan, an honoring your stops hardass!!

[billyjoe]

Ski,
At first I was questioning the stops. Maybe since they're low priced and therefore probably more volatile maybe the stops should be 10%, but then 2 of the 3 stopped out at more than 10% and HOM was close to 10% so they will stay at 7%. Will be looking for patterns to emerge and repeat. Am close to a new rule. Never hold through earnings! It's a real crap shoot. A "good" report just isn't good enough anymore and a bad report will wipe you out. From what I've observed the last few months the odds of a favorable outcome is less than 25%.

billyjoe

[skiracer]

Ski,
At first I was questioning the stops. Maybe since they're low priced and therefore probably more volatile maybe the stops should be 10%, but then 2 of the 3 stopped out at more than 10% and HOM was close to 10% so they will stay at 7%. Will be looking for patterns to emerge and repeat. Am close to a new rule. Never hold through earnings! It's a real crap shoot. A "good" report just isn't good enough anymore and a bad report will wipe you out. From what I've observed the last few months the odds of a favorable outcome is less than 25%.

billyjoe

I'm taking a little sabattical but before that do you actually own any of these on your list or are you experimenting with a new strategy or discipline? Cutting the losers off short and letting the gainers run out can be painful but everntually you will begin to pick only the best setups and then the % of gainers will begin to overide the % of losers and the portfolio will show that. I think you're on the right track. Always felt that about you. Solid with your feet on the ground. Honor your stops regardless. Controlling that is the key. To many positions when you're swing trading also can be confusing an it's hard to find that many true setups at once anyway. Good luck with those cheapies!

[Websman]

Billyjoe,
Isn't being disciplined, sticking to a plan, an honoring your stops hardass!!

Don't beat around the bush Ski. Tell him like it is. Hahaha!!!

[billyjoe]

Ski,
Didn't own any until today, bought HOM on pullback after earnings , not stopped out in real life.

billyjoe

[Websman]

Ski,
Didn't own any until today, bought HOM on pullback after earnings , not stopped out in real life.

billyjoe

But Billyjoe,
Isn't being disciplined, sticking to a plan, an honoring your stops hardass!!

[billyjoe]

Webs,
Yes, it's hardass!

billyjoe

[grebnet]

My thoughts on ENG,MIG

Not that anyone cares but I bought MIG at $6.15 this am as an opening position,ie I will add if it pulls back . I wrote to a firend my thoughts on these two :

ENG has dropped off in last 2 mos due to a secondary stock offering on Oct 3rd , so next qtr earnings will be diluted a little. It appears they used most of that money to pay down their debt from 15.6 million to 1.8 million. they were also impacted by the hurricaines which decreased earnings last qtr by .01 and may do so again in next qtr . either way their growth is impressive. revenue 1st 9 mos this yr 163 million vs 102 million for 1st 9 mos 2004.
The only reason this hasnt shown up on our screens is because their debt/equity was .57, but this has been paid down and when corrected at MSN it will come up on my screens.My gut is that this has been beaten up and will now begin to recover.


MIG has nice revenue and earnings growth . they raised guidance on Nov1st from .54-.57 up to .57-.58/shr They also stated 2006 should increase 15 % to .64-.68..
they have beat estimates for each of the last 4 qtrs and are trading at less than 9 times next years estimates.

Again any criticisms or errors pointed out are welcome.

[billyjoe]

Grebnet,
Thanks for your input . You have some news sources that I don't and any knowledge about these stocks is a plus. You could collaborate with me on this thread any time you want. I've been close to buying ENG a couple times but haven't yet pulled the trigger. Also MIG has been appearing all over the place ie. Spikes list and Mr.Mkt. dump. so it's very attractive.
This week I'm going to figure a cheap stock port in 2 different ways #1 Add up the value of all closed out stocks 93% each after sale plus end of week values on all others for a grand total

#2 Divide up remaining value of closed out positions equally into remaining stocks and add up remains at weeks end. Something like Spike's SCOTC , but starting new each week. If a stock has a monster day I'll raise a trailing stop to keep some gains and will post it.

billyjoe

[billyjoe]

Greb,
You mentioned that you owned MCZ , my son had 200 shares and bought another 200 @.81 . It has begun to move now if it can just crack 1.00. The son knows all about Mad Catz and says it's just a matter of time before they hit a home run or are bought out, either of which will be good news. He has several of their products which he claims can't be beat for the price. The last report didn't seem too good but they were already so far down. The agreement with Madden and the growth in European sales seems to have started this stock back in the right direction.

billyjoe

[grebnet]

Input

I take a different approach to stocks, admittedly sometimes at a loss. I look up stocks in multiple places , but use MSN and yahoo the most. I also always browse the message boards , there is a lot of garbage on them , but also some smart people that guide me to some good info. Once I find a stock, I watch it to get a feel for current activity. Then I buy often what I call a partial position, with plans to buy more if it pulls backor if it is on a steady climb . Once Ive owned the stock , i will often sell partial or whole positions as trades. Occasionally this leads me to missing upside, but usually I am able to "bank profits" and buy lower. Of my portfolio I listed earlier, I currently have 4100 shares of HOM and 1500 shares of AOB ,2000 NWD,1000 EFJI which I call "free" that is I have already banked profits so that if they go to 0 , I haven't lost any in that stock...( I know the purists will argue that I have lost $ that was mine).....
I dont like using stop limits as I dont trust the manipulation in the market with orders sitting there. I usually watch the market closely enough that I dont need blind sell orders.

Pleeeeeease ..somebody shut me up.......