Steckler's Star Studded Stock Picks

[DSteckler]

<< I can't imagine giving back 2/3 of a position once I have those gains. Are these stocks that are in your long term portfolio? If they are do you set trailing stops to protect those gains if you have them. >>

That was an unusual situation. Yes, these are stocks in a longer-term (weeks to months) portfolio. I do not set a trailing stop on these; many more times than not a trailing stop would have gotten me out too early, leaving a lot of potential profit behind. When you're managing a 50 - 75 psoition portfolio (that doesn't include the 15 - 25 swing positions I typically hold), it isn't practical to be constantly entering and exiting positions. More often than not the money is made by holding, not trading.

[skiracer]

<< I can't imagine giving back 2/3 of a position once I have those gains. Are these stocks that are in your long term portfolio? If they are do you set trailing stops to protect those gains if you have them. >>

That was an unusual situation. Yes, these are stocks in a longer-term (weeks to months) portfolio. I do not set a trailing stop on these; many more times than not a trailing stop would have gotten me out too early, leaving a lot of potential profit behind. When you're managing a 50 - 75 psoition portfolio (that doesn't include the 15 - 25 swing positions I typically hold), it isn't practical to be constantly entering and exiting positions. More often than not the money is made by holding, not trading.

I can appreciate the situation of holding that many stocks etc.. It would just bother me giving back that much. Especially watching it happen over the course of a few days or week or two.

[DSteckler]

Giving back 4 or 5 points doesn't hurt much when you see stocks that had you sold them, you would have missed a 20 - 25 point (or more) gain. Case in point - NVR. I'm long at $682.50 and had I used a trailing stop, I would have been out around $720. The stock is now at $787.27.

[DSteckler]

Coils

ATML has formed a coil, although an argument can be made it also formed a pennant.

[Runner]

ATML has formed a coil, although an argument can be made it also formed a pennant.

ATML looks nice to me! Sub-Sector in rocket mode

[Runner]

MEM CHIPS (sub-group)

http://img395.imageshack.us/img395/5469/chips7ji.png

[skiracer]

Giving back 4 or 5 points doesn't hurt much when you see stocks that had you sold them, you would have missed a 20 - 25 point (or more) gain. Case in point - NVR. I'm long at $682.50 and had I used a trailing stop, I would have been out around $720. The stock is now at $787.27.

Dave,
That's great. Good luck.

[Runner]

Dave what ya think of some of these stocks
RMBS SNDK MIPS SIMG ATML FLSH NETL

[DSteckler]

Housing index

Easy way to play the group is with PKB, a relatively new ETF.

[DSteckler]

RMBS - double the 200DMA. Stocks that extended are flashing a warning sign that the odds greatly favor a pullback. Too late to enter, IMO; tighten your stop if you're long.

SNDK - action yesterday and today signals indecision.

MIPS - has run into resistance at the 200DMA, which it hasn't been able to get and stay above since April. I'd wait and watch a few days to see what happens this time.

SIMG - under accumulation. A pullback to the 200DMA could make a good place to start buying.

ATML - see my comments from earlier today.

FLSH - stochastic pop yesterday and last Thursday. The odds favor a continuation of the move but it could pull back a couple of points before that happens.

NETL - I was stopped out a few days ago and while it's up almost 3% today, the volume is anemic.

[Runner]

Thanks Dave, will stalk some of these for a posible P/B. I see SNDK might be in a 3rd move up and could P/B soon. Heck I think the group as a whole might P/B here soon.

[DSteckler]

PKB holdings

The holdings for the building and construction ETF:

% of Index

Consumer Discretionary
(44.27%) KBH KB Home 5.81%
DHI D.R. Horton Inc. 5.71%
TOL Toll Brothers Inc. 5.66%
PHM Pulte Homes Inc. 5.34%
HD Home Depot Inc. 5.03%
RYL Ryland Group Inc. 3.04%
NVR NVR Inc. 2.96%
BMHC Building Materials Holding Corp. 2.71%
CHB Champion Enterprises Inc. 2.70%
WLS William Lyon Homes Inc. 2.69%
POOL SCP Pool Corp. 2.62%


Industrials
(49.77%) CAT Caterpillar Inc. 5.56%
FLR Fluor Corp. 5.55%
BLDR Builders FirstSource Inc. 3.14%
USG USG Corp. 3.13%
JEC Jacobs Engineering Group Inc. 3.12%
MTW Manitowoc Co. 3.11%
EME EMCOR Group Inc. 3.07%
VMI Valmont Industries Inc. 3.02%
WGII Washington Group International Inc. 3.02%
LII Lennox International Inc. 2.96%
TEX Terex Corp. 2.92%
GVA Granite Construction Inc. 2.84%
CAE Cascade Corp. 2.82%
PWR Quanta Services Inc. 2.78%
UFPI Universal Forest Products Inc. 2.73%


Materials
(5.96%) FRK Florida Rock Industries Inc. 3.02%
LPX Louisiana-Pacific Corp. 2.94%

[DSteckler]

NVR continues to move

Sliced up through the 50% retracement level (of the 7/29 - 10/19 decline). Should ultimately test the 61.8% retracement level, around 830.

[DSteckler]

AHS flag breakout

On average volume. Earnings estimates for the next two quarters are up nicely (42.86% and 61.54% respectively, YOY). The %Oscore is a nice 45%.

Of particular interest is the fact that revenue growth percentage-wise is ramping up. The growth in the last four quarters is -.8%, -2.7%, 4.8% and 6.9%.

[DSteckler]

Parl

Out for a 75 cent/share gain. Yesterday's bar closed in the middle half of its range and today's action is bearish. Very low ADX and topped out stochastic (now rolling lower) suggest that PARL will pull back a few points.