Jim's cycle trades

[Jim Smith]

Watching for an opportunity to get back into the semi group either the SMH or maybe something specific like FLSH or AMD.

[Jim Smith]

The word I get from JNJ is that JNJ owns some key patents on GDT products so even if they lose to BSX, they'll tie this up in litigation

[Jim Smith]

I really like the JNJ Mar 60 calls here.

[Jim Smith]

YRCW...took a long position....moving above the 200 day ma....

[Jim Smith]

I believe we're going back to 11000, this time a bit higher...Say 11100.....Love material stocks and energy.....watching JNJ for a long play as they did the expected and backed away from GDT....FLSH had good numbers....N, CLF, BHP are watch list buys

[Jim Smith]

GMR....looking to take a new position here on the long side....I realize my posts don't generate a lot of excitement.....could be because I don't provide charts.....never learned how and the learning curve is steep for me. but as the JNJ call goes, sometimes I get great information

[hilss]

I've been reading your input Jim... keep them posts coming... I don't post often, but I read a lot... I'm still learning...

[New-born baby]

You are DEAD wrong.

GMR....looking to take a new position here on the long side....I realize my posts don't generate a lot of excitement.....could be because I don't provide charts.....never learned how and the learning curve is steep for me. but as the JNJ call goes, sometimes I get great information

Jim,
You are dead wrong if you think your posts don't generate a "lot of excitement." I am reading each one with interest. I was considering posting a note about how glad I am that you, Robb, and Dave are here at the MM site. I am loving it. I read your JNJ post, almost entered the stock yesterday, and this morning she's up over $60 already. I agree: she's going to make a move.

GMR: have followed this one in the past. Tanker Company. Her sister co. FRO is moving like crazy. I was waiting/hoping for a pullback all the way to $35 on FRO, but $37.18 was the low, and I did not enter the stock. Now she's gone.

If you want more excitement over here, besides just posting "I like GMR" or some company, give us a little more of why you like it. And if you want, I'll post a chart here and there (if you don't want, I won't ).
Thanks!

[Jim Smith]

CHK...this stock is starting to look like a massive bear flag on the weekly chart....It's on support right now....if it breaks, this could fall all the way to $18.....they've got tons of leverage from recent acquisitions.....all you need to see is that the CEO has sold even 1 share, and this stock might take a dump.....he's been buying like a wild man and owns something like 5% of the company.

[Jim Smith]

shorted CHK....it's broken the trendline.....could get seriously ugly

[Jim Smith]

APA.....another chart with a look of a bear flag....the weekly shows a cleaner picture.....another couple points down to support, then $52?

[Jim Smith]

I don't know, but APA is starting to remind me of the nasdaq crash beginning from the top of March 2000....it's way early yet, but in a year, this stock might be much lower.

[Jim Smith]

bought APA Jan 2007 75 strike puts....looks like a hedge fund did too as I only bought 10 contracts.....I am betting that this chart is a repeat of the Nasdaq comp chart of March 2000 forward.

[Jim Smith]

no wonder I couldn't win with these oil plays, I was way on the wrong side....I think nat gas can make $6 this summer....look where CHK and APA were when nat gas was $6 in late 2004....ain't pretty.....now it might be time to go long chemicals that were crushed when nat gas was high....maybe Dow or LYO....also, if gasoline is coming down, discretionary spending rises.....thinking casinos and good specialty retailers like AEOS or ANF.

[skiracer]

no wonder I couldn't win with these oil plays, I was way on the wrong side....I think nat gas can make $6 this summer....look where CHK and APA were when nat gas was $6 in late 2004....ain't pretty.....now it might be time to go long chemicals that were crushed when nat gas was high....maybe Dow or LYO....also, if gasoline is coming down, discretionary spending rises.....thinking casinos and good specialty retailers like AEOS or ANF.

Jim,
I like your logic on areas that were beaten down when others were rising and visa versa. I look for those signals myself. I don't know where you live but here at the NJ shore the gas prices were down under $1.80 three or four weeks ago and now have begun to go back up substantially. I paid $2.49 a gallon this morning. That's a pretty big jump in a couple of weeks. One natural gas play I like is NJR. It's a smaller company that I have been accumulating for the past 30 years in a DRIP account. Own a considerable amount of it and every couple of years it splits around $47/48 area an I fill up and then it goes
back up to $48/49 again over the next couple of years and splits again. Been doing this reqularly for quite some time now. Company is the largest property owner in NJ and really the only game in town for natural gas in NJ.