Jim's cycle trades

[Jim Smith]

TBL...these boots are made for walking....hanging above the 200 day ma....

[Jim Smith]

MRK....don't look now, but this stock is acting rock solid....dare I say $42.50 over the next few months?

[Shadow]

MRK....don't look now, but this stock is acting rock solid....dare I say $42.50 over the next few months?

Be careful on this one.

They are starting the 3rd trial.

Also, union negotiations are just starting. First wave is
ugly; which is usually the case. Contract expires in
mid May. Watch carefully; you can make some $ on
this one and it can also be a pit viper.

Good luck
Shadow

[Jim Smith]

CHK being kept above the trendline.....I believe there's an end of month ramp job coming which will take CHK to $41.

[Jim Smith]

DD....a lot of insiders are coming into a ton of stock here.....I am on the look out for a Feb/March ramp job

[Jim Smith]

on the lookout for some classic manipulation here on DD.....wow, a lot of guys got stock two days ago at $39.30....now watch the market makers work this baby up towards $44 so these guys can unload.......playing the March 37.50 calls.

[Jim Smith]

long the oil sector...CHK, XLE, XOM....

[Jim Smith]

DD...here comes the ramp job to let all those execs out who got grants at $39.30....also, PFE goes ex div tomorrow.....

[Jim Smith]

sometimes listening to CNBC pays off.....I heard the chic say that there was huge speculative long interests in oil, equal to last September.....I sold CHK.

[Jim Smith]

this is a real life trading experience: Today, I had 3000 shares of PFE at $25.18 plus 1000 shares of DD and 20 DD call options. At around 11.20 am the wife calls from the mall and says you wanna have lunch? And me, trying to be a devoted husband, say sure. Actually I felt my PFE was on auto pilot and the time away might do me good....So, while eating lunch, my PFE goes intraday parabolic and tops out at 12 noon and instead of cashing out + $1700, I close out the day down $575....Michael Douglas had it right in "wall Street" , lunch is for wimps....There will be no more lunches. IMO, if you don't find yourself experiencing similar things from time to time, you're not trading, you're investing.

[ParkTwain]

Investing is what a trader without stops (i.e., a poor trader) is doing, as you say you demonstrated today. But really, I would say you should broaden your definition of trading by a good measure. $$MM$$ is a trend-following, fundamentals-oriented trader, but he doesn't use a stop because he is actually performing an extended experiment. And his trading experiment has been >80% successful, which is a remarkable win rate anywhere along the "trading" spectrum. He could improve his annual rate of return by using both price and time stops, but those are intentionally not a part of his chosen experiment.

I would say that "investing" is the set of actions taken to gain a return based on an analysis of the earnings potential (and therefore the "value") of the asset purchased. Trading (what I call "speculation" in the most general sense) is the set of actions taken to gain a return based on anticipation of a change in price of the asset purchased.

[Jim Smith]

I got your POT right here.....Potash that is....trading above the 200 day ma like a champ and Nat gas is under pressure....NG is a chief input in the fertilizer biz....I believe the next 10 points on POT is up to $105.

[Jim Smith]

POT up nearly 3 points.....PFE up 5% and you get the dividend.....giving you pearls here.....also mentioned shorting GOOG at 398 the day of the AMZN earnings....anybody out there?

[Jim Smith]

shorted the IWM...I think small caps can slide 10% going into April

[Jim Smith]

This is a dead thread......when a thread discussing the wearing attire of Ernie gets more play, I give up......I can't help you folks.....