BBD ==> The Ides of March Winner

[An2n33]

35.20 was the bottom, in my opinion. Cant get any cheaper than this.

[New-born baby]

I hope for your sake

35.20 was the bottom, in my opinion. Cant get any cheaper than this.

I hope for your sakes (those on MM forums) that this $35.02 is the bottom. But look at today's PnF chart analysis. This is computer generated and I have nothing to do with it. My view is to tell everybody to stand back until the STOs tell us that BBD has found a bottom. And check out today's candlestick.
Bearish.

Best to all.

[studentofthemarket]

35.20 was the bottom, in my opinion. Cant get any cheaper than this.

Any stock can go to ZERO. Only when it gets to ZERO, that it can't get any cheaper.

BBD showed up on my screen 11/4/06, price about 30.00

I didn't buy any, the only reason I remember this was that it went into the trusty watchlist.

student

[lemonjello]

JP Morgan lemmings

Gotta say the techie picture looks bad, but the fundie picture looks good. Maybe some question about the Brazilian vs. US currencies as well with the fed trying to throw the US into recession by continuing the rate increases.

Hard to believe so many people still follow the Wall Street 'analyst' recs. Most of the time it's the institutions that get the recs early trying to front run the retail bagholders, er, investors.
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Reuters- Tue Mar 28, 2006 3:45 PM ET

Receipts with the Bank of New York's index of leading Latin American ADRs <.BKLA> fell 2.7 percent to 226.80, suffering its biggest one-day decline in three weeks.

Shares of Brazil's Banco Bradesco (BBD.N: Quote, Profile, Research) fell 6.1 percent to $35.20 on the New York Stock Exchange.

Brazil's finance minister asked to be relieved of his duties late on Monday, which prompted fears of political turmoil in Brazil.

JP Morgan on Tuesday advised investors to cut Brazil holdings after the resignation, according to a source.

Financial services shares from other regions were also hit, as the higher interest rates could harm the returns on investments for insurance companies and banks.

[Runner]

[Runner]

Because I failed to read this trend correctly I almost got on the wrong side of the trade, as my bias was long. Peaks and troughs can give pretty good warning signals. The real astute traders took it short off the push from point G and may have locked in some gains. I’m sure they are trailing it for now. I wonder how many orders might be hanging around the neckline?

[New-born baby]

Options

Indeed it is. Unfortunately I had to cut 'er loose with a 7¼% loss on this one. I might pick up TS or I might just sit on my hands a while.

Update: Thought about it, looked at it, thought about it some more, decided to buy TS. In at 182.10. And now I see that BBD is making a bit of a comeback ... oh well. I've never been accused of having perfect timing.

TS adversely affected by the Brazilian political scare. Option chain just drips cash. I hope you'll sell a few options and not take a loss on TS.

[Jim Smith]

BBD has taken out its 50 day moving average on enormous volume.....This one could threaten Ernie's record....

[New-born baby]

No sir

BBD has taken out its 50 day moving average on enormous volume.....This one could threaten Ernie's record....

Jim,
No, not Ernie's record. BEL and OFG are examples of stocks that took out 50 day, 100 day, 200 day, even 200 week averages, and he still holds them.
He believes that profits must make the stock rise, sooner or later. Therefore such swings do not concern him. Unless BBD goes to zero, the streak remains intact.

There have been some stocks that took two years to mature. CHKE for example. The volume on that stock was so low--something like 2000 shares per day--I didn't think it was ever going to take out his target. But it did.

[df21084]

In my opinion ...

... some of Mr. Market's picks go temporarily out of favor, but because the fundamentals are sound, and the company earning continue to grow, these stocks WILL bear fruit. Maybe not in the original 4-6 week timeframe, but these picks are A+. They WILL come back into favor. Sooner or later, the big money will flow where the earnings are.

The biggest mistake I've made since I've been following $$$Mr. Market$$$ has been impatience. I must overcome my urge to be Quickdraw McGraw. There are 3 instances where I lost money simply because I thought the timeframe was too long. In every one of these cases, the stock reversed course and exceeded the original 15% target. Not smart!

The fact that some Wall Street blowhard yells "sell" doesn't change the fundamentals of the underlying company. If a company has a track record of earnings, there's no pragmatic reason not to expect the stock price to increase.

Now I just need to learn to practice patience.

[mrmarket]

... some of Mr. Market's picks go temporarily out of favor, but because the fundamentals are sound, and the company earning continue to grow, these stocks WILL bear fruit. Maybe not in the original 4-6 week timeframe, but these picks are A+. They WILL come back into favor. Sooner or later, the big money will flow where the earnings are.

The biggest mistake I've made since I've been following $$$Mr. Market$$$ has been impatience. I must overcome my urge to be Quickdraw McGraw. There are 3 instances where I lost money simply because I thought the timeframe was too long. In every one of these cases, the stock reversed course and exceeded the original 15% target. Not smart!

The fact that some Wall Street blowhard yells "sell" doesn't change the fundamentals of the underlying company. If a company has a track record of earnings, there's no pragmatic reason not to expect the stock price to increase.

Now I just need to learn to practice patience.

Dave,

Which ones were those?

Let me take the opportunity to say that those of you who believe in stops and cutting your losses are doing what works for you. I think that if you have a little trouble understanding WHY a company makes money or does not make money, then stops are a good idea.

If you feel comfortable understanding a company's business and the industry it competes in, then you should be able to make an assessment of whether or not a company will continue to make money. In that case, you can certainly take a position that the market is "wrong" and has mispriced your stock for now.

In the case of BBD..it is a money machine. Does anyone really believe that the company's business has changed in the last week...or that Brazil's macroeconomic status has collapsed in 6 days? Let's see what happens.

[df21084]

Hi Ernie ...

For me, these 3 stand out:

PDX: In - $65.77, Out - $63.24, 3/28/06 Close - $99.57 > +15%

PDX is a solid business. PDX has no lack of patients, but I lacked patience.

CME: In - $223.95, Out - $195.00, 3/28/06 Close - $ 444.63 >+15%

CME is a money machine. I let big dollar price swings affect my judgement.

HZO: In - $29.55, Out - $22.00, 3/28/06 Close - $32.55 +10%

HZO - A boater's dream come true, up slightly over 10% from my purchase price with boating season coming into full swing. A friend of mine just traded his 34' SeaRay and bought a 37' SeaRay - from HZO. Boat lovers will buy boats regardless of Fed decisions. (Okay ... HZO hasn't yet gained 15% since I bought it, but I have every reason to believe it will.)

In each of these 3 cases, I lost money because I was unwilling to wait for the market to recognize the underlying companies. I'll learn.

Happliy, I have performed better in the majority of my stock picks. But when I analyze why I sold "my" losers, the answer's always the same: Lack of patience. The fundamentals didn't change.

Right now I'm holding BBD, MFLX, and WIRE. I ain't selling.

[mrmarket]

you sees? YOU SEEES?

[DSteckler]

See what, Ernie?

[df21084]

you sees? YOU SEEES?

Yes Ernie. I sees.

But I am learning. I swear I am.