BBD ==> The Ides of March Winner

[lemonjello]

Crickets

<sound of crickets chirping>

[New-born baby]

Ts

TS is a $200 stock now . . . working right on that 15% gain from the $176 entry.

[hilss]

Ts

Yep... i was debating buying that stock @ 178...

[New-born baby]

15% and more

Yep... i was debating buying that stock @ 178...

TS is $207--that's more than 15% and I really think she may hit--sitting down?--$300 this year.

[mimo_100]

BBD may be forming an island cluster reversal. All that's needed is an upside gap open that doesn't get filled during the day. Here's a description of the pattern. Please scroll down:

http://www.incrediblecharts.com/tech...d_reversal.htm

I am tring to see the island cluster reversal, but I am having a hard time -- If you feel like it, could you post a simple chart and circle what you are talking about? If not, I understand you are busy. Thanks.

Tim

[DSteckler]

Tim, BBD never formed the island cluster reversal. Please note I said "may be forming;" I was referring to the gap open lower on 3/28. An island cluster reversal would have required a gap open higher at least two days later. The gap higher never occurred.

[mimo_100]

Tim, BBD never formed the island cluster reversal. Please note I said "may be forming;" I was referring to the gap open lower on 3/28. An island cluster reversal would have required a gap open higher at least two days later. The gap higher never occurred.

Thanks for the explanation

Tim

[owenrm]

I bought in to BBD at 37$. On my 1 Year Long weekly chart, I notice the slow stochastics are heding down into the 20s. In my experience this has preceded a trun around. I've done fairly well with Mr Market before and am trying to keep my confidence up... does anybody else feel good about BBDs yearly chart?

[EMphase]

Technical Analysis of BBD

Hi all,
This is my first post on this website. I would like to contribute with my technical analysis on BBD. I'm providing both the short term view and the long term view of this stock.

Graph interpretation
Wave 3 of (3) finished mid february 2006. Since then, BBD started a corrective pattern which is clearly a symmetrical triangle. That triangle is corrective Wave 4 of (3).

According to my principal Elliott Wave count, the symmetrical triangle is bullish. If it's the case, Mr. Market will most likely respect his promise of seeing this stock at least at 44$US considering a medium-term perspective of a few weeks.

In technical words, Mr. Market wants to ride Wave 5 of (3) on a medium term perspective. Once this wave is done, this stock is entering the corrective pattern (4) that will last probably more than 6 months considering corrective wave (2) lasted 4months between january 2004 and april 2004.

During the corrective pattern (4), the stock is just going to move side ways with no real upside potential for someone holding a long position. After these 6+ months, the stock will resume and starts motive wave (5) which is bullish.

However, there is always a risk that this symmetrical triangle is bearish and that the Elliott Wave count I did is wrong. If that is the case, the price will break the symmetrical triangle and BBD will fall to 30$US level.

Graphic


Conclusion
The best strategy would have been to create a straddle with stock options. Unfortunately, stock options are unavailable for BBD. A straddle on this stock would have been fantastic leading possibly to huge profits. What to do with the stock then? If you don't have a position inside BBD yet but you are considering one, wait for a signal.

A) If there is a break out of the triangle on the upside and the price is near 37.00$US+ around 3:45PM during the afternoon EST over the next days, buy shares between 3:45PM and 4:00PM.

B) If there is a break out of the triangle on the downside and the price is near 34.00$US around 3:45PM during the afternoon EST over the next days, sell short shares between 3:45PM and 4:00PM.

If you already own BBD, cross your fingers and hope both Mr. Market and my principal Elliott Wave count are right. If you don't feel comfortable with a stock like this one that will have an important movement that may be bidirectional, maybe sell your shares now and wait for the clear signal.

When is this signal going to occur? Very soon. It's wednesday 19/4/2006 right now. Hopefully, we will have this signal before friday 21/4/2006 or early next week.

PS:
What is a straddle? A straddle involves buying a call and a put with same strike price and expiration date. If the price is close to the strike price at expiration of the options, the straddle leads to a loss. However if there is a sufficiently large move in either direction, a significant profit will result.

Why do I only suggest to trade between 3:45PM and 4:00PM? Because thats the moment that decides the closing price of the day and its the moment institutionnal players trade. Almost all the intra-day prices movements aren't meaningful except the end of the day if there isn't any news announced.

[Karel]

Hi EMphase, welcome to the board, and thank you for your analysis.

I have one request: please keep your pics under 700 pixels wide!

Regards,

Karel

[New-born baby]

EMphase

Such beautiful work! I really like that chart and analysis! Thank you

No doubt you have done significant work in other stocks. I would very much like you to post them for our enlightenment. Would you please post other charts/analysis that you have done?

[EMphase]

Guys, I think the signal just went off today. BBD alarm is ringing!The price is now at 37.40$US which should pretty much confirm that both Mr. Market and my main analysis are both correct concerning the medium term upside potential.

BBD has been upgraded by Bear Stearns to outperform. You may want to wait the end of the day, which is in a few hours before taking the decision. You have nothing to lose to wait patiently for the confirmation of the close price. I'm personallly rushing inside BBD with a decent position if it's looking good this afternoon between 3:45PM and 4:00PM. =)

It's currently 11:30AM EST. If the price is going to CLOSE over 37.00$US today, that's it. The symmetrical triangle is bullish with over 80%+ certainty. Under these conditions and considering the strong thrust from a triangle, this stock will most likely (good chances) ride to 44$US within a few weeks.

Karel:
Maybe for next time but this chart is much more beautiful with this size.

Newborn:
Yes I do have other technical analysis but they are actually outdated now in the sense I temporarily stopped watching the market for about 1 year while I was studying alot and working too. I'm going to make new ones soon.

Today I bought Banco Bradesco (BBD) at 40.85. I will sell it in 4 to 6 weeks at 47.02. Here’s why I like BBD:

Why 47.02? If price would effectively hit 47.02, chances are that it would go higher. 47.00 is a psychological resistance. If I was you, I would set your sell price at something like 46.95 if you believe the stock is going to reach that price.

However if you want to play it safe, a target sell price similar to the 52weeks high such as 43.75 might be more realistic. At least for persons entering the stock at 37.50 range which is a 15% yield at that point. I know that if you bough the shares at 40.85, 43.75 doesn't sound that exciting thought.

44.00 is the minimum target here IMO. There might be juice for this stock to go higher such as 47.00 but it's uncertain when it will reach that point (44.00). A good strategy may be to sell half your position near 43.75 and another half near 46.75 with a stop loss at 41.95 for example.

[Karel]

... Karel:
Maybe for next time but this chart is much more beautiful with this size. ...

I realize that, so I didn't hit it with my thumbnail or link hammer just this once.
If you really need a wide chart, please post a link to the chart or a thumbnail instead.

There are two reasons for this:
- On my screen the text now scrolls off the right side
- and so does the ad column. We need those ads to keep this (free!) site running!

Hoping for your cooperation,

Karel

[mrmarket]

Where are all the BBD haters now???

[EMphase]

Update:
Bullish break out is confirmed. The OHLC or candlestick is now outside the triangle. Other technical signs are the RSI crossing over 50%, the price going over both moving averages and the good volume with the rise.