BBD ==> The Ides of March Winner

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  • EMphase
    Member
    • Apr 2006
    • 60

    I mean a significant move very shortly, either upside or downside thrust due to break out of the triangle formation. I am not very sure which way the triangle is going to break. Currently it looks like it's breaking it in a bullish way which would validate my Elliott Wave count. If thats the case, you adapt to it.

    There is a difference between not knowing if the stock is going to go up or down (such as you are trying to imply with some satire) and not knowing if the price is going to break the triangle up or down. The first you can't make a strategy around it, the second you can make a strategy at break out signal.

    I'm from Canada.

    I don't know what you are referring to with VTP unfortunately.

    ---

    For tomorrow:

    April 19 (Bloomberg) -- Brazil's central bank cut the benchmark lending rate to a five-year low in a bid to spur consumer spending and bolster a recovery in Latin America's biggest economy.

    The nine-member board led by bank President Henrique Meirelles voted unanimously to lower the overnight interbank lending rate 75 basis points, or 0.75 percentage point, to 15.75 percent. The reduction, in line with the median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of 28 economists, is the seventh since September, bringing the rate down 4 percentage points.

    De Faria said another 75 basis point cut next month is ``very likely'' and he expects the bank to have the rate at 14 percent by year-end. Ansanelli also forecasts a year-end rate of 14 percent and Lintz predicts a year-end rate of 14.25 percent. Either would be a record low.
    Last edited by EMphase; 04-19-2006, 09:59 PM.

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    • << I don't know what you are referring to with VTP unfortunately. >>

      Very Tight Panties.

      Lye's got a "thing" for them....<VBG>

      Comment


      • I’m bull again on BBD as the H/S pattern did not produce. If this stock clears April’s highs I looking at short-term target of 41.25 then expecting a retest of April’s high before the next push up. Next Bull task is a close over 37.95. Next Bear task take out 34.82

        Comment

        • EMphase
          Member
          • Apr 2006
          • 60

          Persuaded now?

          Traditionnal Weinstein technical analysis is great but its just a more general tool. This means you will be able to see patterns but you won't be able to have a clue if the pattern is going to fail or not.

          Elliott Wave is able to give the answer to that (if what you see is really going to happen or not) if done correctly. In that case, BBD could have broke the triangle both on the upside or the downside but the Elliott Wave count was suggesting an upside break out with a higher probability.

          Concerning fundamentals, the stock is moving today because of the rate cut that happened yesterday. The market was anticipating the first cut but they said they would cut it again the next time in Brazil to stimulate the economic activity.

          Something to watch:
          Earnings 9 may 2006.

          Comment

          • mrmarket
            Administrator
            • Sep 2003
            • 5971

            My prediction:

            Earnings will be "pornographic".
            =============================

            I am HUGE! Bring me your finest meats and cheeses.

            - $$$MR. MARKET$$$

            Comment

            • df21084
              Senior Member
              • Mar 2004
              • 258

              In case anyone cares:

              On April 19, 2006 Bear Stearns upgraded BANCO BRADESCO ADS from PEER PERFORM to OUTPERFORM.
              Happy investing,
              Dave

              My opinion is worth no more than the price you paid for me to give it.

              Comment

              • df21084
                Senior Member
                • Mar 2004
                • 258

                Oh yeah, I forgot this one:

                On April 14, 2006 Standard & Poor`s downgraded BANCO BRADESCO ADS from HOLD to HOLD.

                WTF???
                Happy investing,
                Dave

                My opinion is worth no more than the price you paid for me to give it.

                Comment

                • spikefader
                  Senior Member
                  • Apr 2004
                  • 7175



                  Channel resistance here. Also some band resistance at these levels. But intraday pattern is yet to confirm.

                  EMphase; you've made your plan, expressed the logic, shown a great chart, all is good. Don't ruin it by dissing other practises and methods and make me flick yer forehead

                  Comment

                  • EMphase
                    Member
                    • Apr 2006
                    • 60

                    39.00 resistance is broken. Fasten your seat belt my friends because the launch began. An exit of a triangle is always intense/strong . I will update my technical analysis when the price will reach 43.00-44.00. Forgot to say I'm in between 37.60 and 37.70. I got scared when the price suddenly fell yesterday before the close of the markets but finally it wasn't that bad. I'm pretty comfident now on BBD.

                    Comment

                    • EMphase
                      Member
                      • Apr 2006
                      • 60

                      Spikefader
                      You placed 3 lines along the corrective pattern but these lines are "floating" over nothing. I speak for myself or for technical analysis in general but a resistance or support must come from 2 points minimum. You can't draw a line without 2 points. You can trace the lines I placed in green as valid tendency lines because they are each holding on 3 solid points on the graphic.The current price level can't be used to mark the top blue line on your graphic. However the volume by price you can say 39.00 is the last resistance before the stock will be wild-free.

                      I am welcoming you to find flaws in my technical analysis ( the first big graphic here). Anything doubt or proof that I am wrong somewhere on my count is extremely appreciated.

                      Last edited by EMphase; 04-20-2006, 02:50 PM.

                      Comment

                      • spikefader
                        Senior Member
                        • Apr 2004
                        • 7175

                        EMphase,

                        That's a regression channel, and it's autogenerated by stockcharts.com Java-based charting application. Regression channels, in my humble opinion, are a very worthwhile tool, and can spot and highlight excellent support and resistance areas, which are great for looking for clever r/r setups of counter-trend.

                        If interested in learning more about regression channels, head over to stockcharts.com and play with their charting and click and drag channels like I have posted. It's a neat tool. But like anything, channel longs and channel shorts fail, and the bottom line to profitability is applying disciplined risk control, sensible money management, and effective profit targeting.

                        For more info on my style of trading, feel free to check out my previously very active and lengthy Scientific thread. The advanced search feature of this web site will help you.

                        Comment

                        • spikefader
                          Senior Member
                          • Apr 2004
                          • 7175

                          intraday pattern is yet to confirm.
                          Confirmed now. Bias short again until high taken out.


                          Comment

                          • EMphase
                            Member
                            • Apr 2006
                            • 60

                            Spikefader
                            Please elaborate. What is your view on BBD on a medium term perspective? All you are showing me is extremely short term things that don't have any significant impact on the medium term. If you want to short BBD, please do so. But you most likely going to get short squeezed in my opinion.

                            The only thing I understand is that you believe that the top regression you made to be an actual resistance, a resistance that will be successful at blocking the price from going any further and make the price fall back again to the low regression support. You were waiting for a signal to confirm this and you believe that you got that signal today. This is correct interpretation of your point of view, right?

                            On your last graphic, yes I see your intra-day H&S. It's a valid and successful H&S. The target was met for the drop. But the correction finished. It's most likely not going down further. That is actually one of the cleanest intra-day Elliott wave count you could ever find: 1,2,3,4,5 with a zigzag for correction on that intraday chart of yours. The last graphic you posted is not bearish at all.

                            Anyways time will tell
                            Last edited by EMphase; 04-20-2006, 05:36 PM.

                            Comment

                            • spikefader
                              Senior Member
                              • Apr 2004
                              • 7175

                              All you are showing me is extremely short term things that don't have any significant impact on the medium term.
                              OK, I'll quote you on that later if it tanks. But look, it's not rocket science; it's just resistance. It is what it is until it isn't. How far it moves south relative to the resistance is all a matter for the market to work out. I'm not saying it will resist, cuz how could I know such a thing. Anyone who says they know price will act a certain way is living in lala land. Resistance is only resistance until it isn't. Support is only support until it isn't. Your count is only valid until it isn't. My channels and patterns are only valid until they aren't.

                              Shoo, BBD could end up being another HANS for all I know, and being a MM pick in a bull market the chances of that coming true are great...but right now it doesn't set up long for me personally. When it starts I'll post the chart and the reason, and cheer along with all the other bulls. But in this little black duck's humble opinion right now resistance should be sold and not bought. Investors might ignore such things. Bullish EWers with your count might ignore such things. The market may not.

                              Best to ya,
                              Spike.

                              P.S
                              The last graphic you posted is not bearish at all.
                              lol dude...you're saying that a bearish head and shoulders pattern isn't bearish at all?? heh I smell denial.

                              Comment


                              • << Anyone who says they know price will act a certain way is living in lala land. >>

                                Doug lives in LaLa land. Maybe he knows! <VBG>

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