BBD ==> The Ides of March Winner

[Runner]

Here is my bias as why I’m bull on BBD. Now it is a fact this stock has been in a downtrend off the daily. Marked by a-c-e. It found support at d-f. Looks almost like a double bottom to me if my TA is right. I never worry about things being textbook anyway as long as the pattern is within the character of the pattern it’s good enough for me. The weekly chart also is showing a pop over downtrend line…

The pop above e also confirmed my thoughts about price clearing the blue line. I’ll change my take on things if the blue line should not hold.

[Lyehopper]

I'm from Canada.

I don't know what you are referring to with VTP unfortunately.

hmmmmmmm.... Canada.... Hey!... Don't you fellas up there have those "Oil Sands Deposits"?.... Wish you'd hurry up and figure out how to extract all that oil in a cost effective manner so we can go ahead and leave Iraq and Invade Canada. btw I think we could take Canada without firing a shot. We really do need a cheap war with an oil rich nation to sorta "rev things up" again.

Oh and as for "The VTP".... The founder of this great trading system resides within the many threads and posts of this forum. It might pay for you to visit those threads and seek him out. He can fill the void you've experienced during that year you took off from trading.

AND.... I'd love to invite you to play the POTW (BillyJoe's portfolio of the week thread).... We'd love to see your picks! Rules for the contest can be found at the bottom of any of "Rob's" posts in the POTW thread. Might as well get used to playing with us dude.... You might be living in a US colony before too long.

[EMphase]

OK, I'll quote you on that later if it tanks. But look, it's not rocket science; it's just resistance. It is what it is until it isn't.

Please explain why the raff regression you drawed is the perfect one, the one that will be the truth? Here is a bunch of raff regressions I placed on the graphic below. So many resistances, it's terrible! Price is never going to go past all of these!

Seriously, raff regression is an "unbound" tool without any rules tied to it. It may be helpful to check for general trend of a stock but it certainly doesn't tell anything good about resistances and support compared to the Elliott Wave Theory. It simply doesn't have any kind of precision or predictive power. Elliott at least is bound to very strict rules you must respect to validate a count. Not many respect these rules and thats why many people get poor result out of it.

P.S lol dude...you're saying that a bearish head and shoulders pattern isn't bearish at all?? heh I smell denial.

It's actually very bullish but it's because you aren't seeing what I am seeing. This is my point of view. Your point of view is small, it's actually the little bubble in the middle. The whole thing you aren't seeing is below. Please take a look at the actual graph also.



Let me tell you that more often than not, Elliott Wave patterns AREN'T very clear on many charts making it not easy to use. If there is a chart I can't count correctly, I won't trade on it. That's how I avoid doing counting mistakes. But in the case of BBD, it's almost crystal water clear according to me. If BBD fails to do what I believe it will do, Spikefader, I will throw Elliott to the garbage and I will give you the honor of praising you, fair enought ?. Elliott served me well in my previous years of using it.

[IIC]

<< Anyone who says they know price will act a certain way is living in lala land. >>

Doug lives in LaLa land. Maybe he knows! <VBG>

Geez Dave...I never said I live in LaLa Land...I just said that I know some that do...Doug

[IIC]

Geez...I think I'm gonna throw up...Some people like to make the market and stock picking into some VooDoo Science Project...Use my system...KISS...Look at a chart...look at fundies...Buy stocks that are gonna go up...Sell stocks that are gonna go down...Not all that complicated...Doug aka Mr. LaLa

[DSteckler]

Doug, I thought you lived in Los Angeles?

[Lyehopper]

Geez...I think I'm gonna throw up...Some people like to make the market and stock picking into some VooDoo Science Project...

Yeah! What's wrong with these fellas Doug?.... I just scratch at the stock chart on my computer screen with a dried up monkey's foot dipped in "The GoJi" and then count the scratch marks on the screen and chant mrmarketishuuuuge mrmarketishuuuge.... I call it the MPWT.... Monkey Paw Wave Theory.... That's how I discovered ECOL was gonna breakout.... oh crap! just gave away a critical VTP strategy.... sorry Webs!

[Lyehopper]

Doug, I thought you lived in Los Angeles?

He does Dave.... IIC dosen't know that on the east coast we refer to "LA" as LaLa land.... Doug's in "denial" too.... jejejeeeeee

[Lyehopper]

What Happened!!!!????

What happened to the TA discussion here?!!!! I was hoping someone would have a rival to my MPWT.... Guess it's hard to argue with a proven method.

[spikefader]

Elliott Wave patterns AREN'T very clear on many charts.

Indeed. And I doubt whether you can explain precisely why they act in such a way, nor when they start and stop acting that way, nor why price sometimes acts contrary to an expected count.

You can lead a horse to water but you can't make him drink. Maybe when you've got 6,000 posts next to your name and have settled in to this place and know where you fit in you will come to understand things that you're not understanding. True wisdom comes from experience, and yours is reflected in the way you've communicated to us all; young cocky arrogance with disrespect and blinkered vision towards other methods. You come to a new forum and tout BBD bullish bias, and show your counting excellence, you get compliments from a few of the regulars, and all is good. Then you start fartin' and smelling up the place and I'm wanting to leave the room cuz of the stink.

Look, nothing wrong with pushing the worth of a particular discipline, but don't discount every other one cuz you were never able to make it work or weren't interested in looking at it. There are many ways to make money in the market; many worthy TA systems. EW is not the holy grail and never will be. The holy grail is all about applying risk control, money management, trade control, and self discipline to whatever edge one can find in the market. Your EW is an edge for you, and that's great. Congrats. Surely you're not saying every other method sucks bilge water! Oh, yes, that is what you are saying. Dude, consider your head flicked in an effort to wake you up. The humble TA that I use is very effective too, although you clearly haven't witnessed it. Your objections to it and observations about it are duly noted, and that is your right. Freedom does have it's drawdowns. Ignorance is bliss, and it's clear how happy and confident you are about your 'read' on the chart. And it's good cuz it's a mrmarket pick, and so your count gives much confidence that solid EW TA backs up the bullish bias. I want you to be right dude, and it's not like I'm desperately trying to look for bearishness against you or against anyone's bullish read of BBD. It's merely that my own unique swing trade model (that has served me well too) gives me bearish bias on it until in gets over the humps I see for it. Take that for whatever you think it's worth, which is obviously not much. That's OK, I don't need your validation or the honor of praise from you or anyone else. I'm not lookin' for that, and perhaps that's where you and I differ. I call 'em how I see 'em just to share and attempt to be helfpul. Why do you post?

But that's off-topic, so back to BBD.......I'll be a buyer of BBD, but I want lower prices or better TA first. I have taken your view into consideration, and I thank you for your contribution. I would encourage you to act in a similar manner. I really doubt whether you've really 'listened' to the stuff I've already said to ya. Your EWing is all that and a bag of chips, I can appreciate what you're saying to me. I personally use simple fuzzy rule-breakin' EW profitably, and I do that by cutting losers short and letting winners run. BUT I don't care how good your count is, how perfect it is, something might happen to cause your count to crack and the stock trade with unexpected volatility against your bias. Stocks may follow a count fantastically for long periods of time, and then something may happen where the news and market forces leave you stunned; and with an ugly loss if you're not careful. Your promise to throw EW to the garbage if BBD doesn't follow your plan is foolish and juvenile.....and just setting yourself up for a fall if you are proven wrong. Only God knows what's going to happen tomorrow for BBD; price direction is never certain. And that will remain true even if you are proven correct with BBD's direction.

You've obviously invested great time and discipline with your EWing and it's yet to be revealed if you're consistently good at it, and how your apply risk and trade control to make money. You say you've been well-served by EW, and praise God for that. But don't get too proud, cocky, or self-boasting and attack others around you because of what you view as small time frame focus or biases that are 'just plain wrong' cuz you'll upset the locals and end up sitting in the corner with the Dunce hat on. This is a great site to share ideas and to learn new things, and you've obviously spent zero time lurking or reading other threads to get a gauge and feel for the regular posters here and what kind of trading ability they've got. But you're not the first to have done that, so I shall cut you some slack too.

So quit fartin', take the dunce hat off, and go start a thread for yourself on the discussion page and start putting all that great EW in there for us to enjoy. I'll be an active reader of it despite your poor manners.

Best to ya dude.
Spike.

[IIC]

I happen to personally know a couple of EW experts and I'll admit that...as far as I can tell...they do well in the long run...But what bugs me is that every time the waves don't work they re-invent the whole thing. To be honest...I'm a bit sick of hearing about this GIANT WAVE pattern that started back around 1960...I commend Elliott for coming up with a system that can keep being explained away every time it doesn't work...But, I prefer to just admit when I'm wrong and get on to the next thing...Doug(IIC)

[lemonjello]

Meanwhile, in the peanut gallery.

I like it when they fight.

<sound of munching popcorn>

[New-born baby]

Ew

EMphase,
Thanks for posting your viewpoint on BBD. I am not invested in BBD or will I be because I don't trade stocks without option chains. I am writing because i wanted to highlight that EW and Dow Theory don't always agree, and right now my system doesn't give a green light to take BBD long just yet. The PnF still insists that she's headed South before North--$28 target. PnF charts can be wrong, too. And they do lag the market by about a day.

Still, I thought your chart work was very interesting, and I was much impressed. I hope you'll keep posting because I know you can teach me much about EW.

Thanks again.

[DSteckler]

BBD has stalled the past three days at the 50DMA. That's also a 50% retracement of the 3/2 high - 4/13 low. Failure to close higher than the MA on improving volume doesn't look good.

[skiracer]

EMphase,
Thanks for posting your viewpoint on BBD. I am not invested in BBD or will I be because I don't trade stocks without option chains. I am writing because i wanted to highlight that EW and Dow Theory don't always agree, and right now my system doesn't give a green light to take BBD long just yet. The PnF still insists that she's headed South before North--$28 target. PnF charts can be wrong, too. And they do lag the market by about a day.

Still, I thought your chart work was very interesting, and I was much impressed. I hope you'll keep posting because I know you can teach me much about EW.

Thanks again.

NB,
Why wouldn't you pick up a book on the topic or there's hundreds of sites where you can take several online seminars of varying degrees from basic to advanced complexity on EW theory where you could learn on your own at least the basics from a professional source. Yet you would take EMphase's word on it before any of those. If you don't know or understand the basics yourself what leads you to believe or know that he has it right or can be taken as an expert on the theory. He throws one chart up an he's the imperial wizard of EW theory. What did you find so impressive in that one chart that would make you think that he could teach you so much.