Lyehopper's Roundup....

[Lyehopper]

This stock has 25% of the float sold short and it makes some volitile swings.... Down steeply (10%+) this morning.... I'm looking to trade it long anytime. I'll post my play here.

Bought LMS @ $25.92.... I'll add @ around 26.50....

[Lyehopper]

Watch LMS....

This stock has 25% of the float sold short and it makes some volitile swings.... Down steeply (10%+) this morning.... I'm looking to trade it long anytime. I'll post my play here.

[Lyehopper]

Lye,
I noticed on your channel 10 weather they had a feature on preparing for hurricanes. Have you ever had a hurricane hit Lyehopper Hollow?

Not as far back as I can remember....LOL!

I think they're just runnin' short of news story ideas down here BillyJoe.... There was a little earthquake somewhere in the Midwest a few years back and the local news folks talked about the possibility of us getting one around here. It prompted my mother-in-law to get quake coverage on her house....SsSsSsSSsss!

[billyjoe]

Lye,
I noticed on your channel 10 weather they had a feature on preparing for hurricanes. Have you ever had a hurricane hit Lyehopper Hollow ?

----------billyjoe


Buy corn futures

[Rob]

Re Guns Vs. Doctors

From a Pacific Health Center Web page:

The late Robert Mendelsohn, M.D., while Chairman of the Medical Licensing Committee for the State of Illinois and Associate Professor of Preventive Medicine and Community Health at the University of Illinois School of Medicine, wrote:

. . . the greatest danger to your
health is the doctor who practices
Modern Medicine. I believe that
Modern Medicine's treatments for
disease are seldom effective, and
that they're often more dangerous
than the diseases they're
designed to treat . . . I believe
that more than 90% of Modern
Medicine could disappear from the
face of the earth-doctors, hospital,
drugs, and equipment-and the
effect on our health would be
immediate and beneficial.

I read Mendelsohn's book Confessions of a Medical Heretic many years ago. It's a wonderful book, and I highly recommend it to anyone. Incidentally, that Web page that's linked above has some other interesting stuff to read if you've got a few minutes.

[billyjoe]

Lye,
I consider myself lucky. The doctor only broke my leg. Then he said "I'd like to take another shot at this".
--------billyjoe

[New-born baby]

This is a great example of why I have always found STATISTICS such a powerful educational tool.

Doctors:

(A) The number of doctors in the US. is 700,000.
(B) Accidental deaths caused by physicians per year are 120,000.
(C) So you have a 17.14% chance of being killed by a doctor.


Guns:

(A) The number of gun owners in the U.S. is 80,000,000 (yes! that's 80 million).
(B) The number of accidental gun deaths per year, all age groups, is 1,500.
(C) You have a 0.0019% chance of being killed by a gun owner.

So statistically, doctors are approximately 9,000 times more dangerous than gun owners.

Remember: Guns don't kill people, Doctors do.

FACT: NOT EVERYONE HAS A GUN...BUT ALMOST EVERYONE HAS
AT LEAST ONE DOCTOR.

Please alert your friends to this alarming threat. We must ban doctors before this gets completely out of hand!!!

Out of concern for the public at large, I have withheld statistics on lawyers for fear the shock would cause people to panic and seek medical attention....

Great post, Lye! Outstanding!

[Lyehopper]

Guns-Vs-Doctors....

This is a great example of why I have always found STATISTICS such a powerful educational tool.

Doctors:

(A) The number of doctors in the US. is 700,000.
(B) Accidental deaths caused by physicians per year are 120,000.
(C) So you have a 17.14% chance of being killed by a doctor.


Guns:

(A) The number of gun owners in the U.S. is 80,000,000 (yes! that's 80 million).
(B) The number of accidental gun deaths per year, all age groups, is 1,500.
(C) You have a 0.0019% chance of being killed by a gun owner.

So statistically, doctors are approximately 9,000 times more dangerous than gun owners.

Remember: Guns don't kill people, Doctors do.

FACT: NOT EVERYONE HAS A GUN...BUT ALMOST EVERYONE HAS
AT LEAST ONE DOCTOR.

Please alert your friends to this alarming threat. We must ban doctors before this gets completely out of hand!!!

Out of concern for the public at large, I have withheld statistics on lawyers for fear the shock would cause people to panic and seek medical attention....

[Lyehopper]

My banker just emailed me this newsletter....

* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *
*
*HAGERBAUMER
* ON INTEREST RATES
*
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *
Volume XVIII Issue 26 June 23, 2006


Treasury yields move to new highs – do not buy

MARKET YIELDS My signal of a month ago has been proven wrong in the cash market and all but proven wrong in the futures market. The 10-year note broke above its May high of 5.15 percent yesterday, closing at 5.20 percent. The bottom line is: Treasury yields are going higher. The question is how much higher. And that depends on the Fed, on incoming economic data, and on how the Fed perceives that data.

WHAT’S ON THE FED’S MIND
· The core CPI has accelerated three months now. The annualized 3-month rate of change is 3.8 percent. The Fed will not tolerate above 2 percent for very long. Current CPI inflation says the Fed could take the funds rate to 6 percent (or higher).
· The imputed cost of owning a home called owners’ equivalent rent (OER) is behind much of the acceleration of the core CPI. Rents are now in the rising phase of the cycle and so may drive the CPI higher for a number of months more.
· Wage inflation, though low, has been accelerating. The rise in the hourly earnings index (part of the employment report) ranged between 2.2 and 2.3 percent last year until the fall. By December it had climbed to 3.2 percent. As of last month it was higher still at 3.7 percent. The Fed must stem this acceleration. A better measure of wage inflation – from the employment cost index – does not show this much acceleration. But it is rising at the rate of one-half percentage point per year.
· Nominal GDP is growing nearly one-and-one-half percentage points faster than its 20-year average. The Fed must slow this rate of growth or risk higher inflation. With the release of the second quarter GDP numbers in late-July we should see some slowing in this number. But it likely will not be enough.
· The Fed is worried about the pass-through of crude oil prices which are hanging at around $70 per barrel with no signs of falling to a significantly lower level. On this account (other things equal), the Fed is prone to tighten more rather than less.
· Chairman Bernanke must now win his inflation spurs after earlier perceived gaffes on his part. This factor suggests tightening will go further rather than not.
· Of the 22 primary dealers who do business directly with the Fed, four have now raised their forecast for the peak fed funds rate to 6 percent. Two weeks ago none were saying that.
· The real rate of fed funds is still only modestly contractionary even though the nominal rate has risen 400 basis points. And as core inflation rate rises the nominal fed funds rate must rise in lockstep just to stay even.


· Inflation is #1 in the Fed’s playbook. That the economy will take a hit with more tightening is clearly of secondary concern to the Fed.
· As far as the economic numbers go, the Fed will put emphasis on the growth of payroll employment since this is the main coincident indicator of labor market pressure. Next number due out Friday, July 7th.

SUMMARY REMARKS Where the Treasury curve is going is mostly dependent on where the Fed takes the funds rate. I am in the process of revising my thinking about this, and currently lean toward 5 ¾ or 6 percent. When the market believes the Fed has but one more hike to go, then the Treasury market will rally. That will be at least until the August 8th FOMC meeting.

RECOMMENDATIONS Prepare for higher yields across the curve and stand aside from doing any buying for now. It may be three months or more before the Treasury curve peaks, with a clear sign of falling inflation being the most likely precipitator.

Jim Hagerbaumer

[Lyehopper]

Lyehopper,

Since you seem to be the only one interested in the steel industry other than me, I thought I'd let you know about an addition to my steel industry index. KYCN.ob is now trading (again) publicly, currently at $2.00/share. This was one of those steel companies that went through chapter 11 in 2000-2003. It has risen from the ashes and is redeeming itself. The parent company makes fencing and nails. They just happen to own a steel plant as well: Keystone Steel and Wire, in Peoria, IL. The capacity of steel output per year is 820,000 Tons. There's some good people running that mill.

I'll be making my rounds this week and next to my various customers. I'll let you know about the backlog and inventory situation.

I'll tell you one thing, though. There just might be some companies that might be trying to cook their books by not placing orders for new equipment / supplies until early July... you know, being that the 2nd Q is up this week.

How about Kentucky Electric Steel?.... I heard they recently started back up.... I used to buy 1.25 X 2.5 A-36 from them in the early 90's.... Had alot of quality problems with them. I'm not sure who owns them now.

[peanuts]

addition to my Steel Index

Lyehopper,

Since you seem to be the only one interested in the steel industry other than me, I thought I'd let you know about an addition to my steel industry index. KYCN.ob is now trading (again) publicly, currently at $2.00/share. This was one of those steel companies that went through chapter 11 in 2000-2003. It has risen from the ashes and is redeeming itself. The parent company makes fencing and nails. They just happen to own a steel plant as well: Keystone Steel and Wire, in Peoria, IL. The capacity of steel output per year is 820,000 Tons. There's some good people running that mill.

I'll be making my rounds this week and next to my various customers. I'll let you know about the backlog and inventory situation.

I'll tell you one thing, though. There just might be some companies that might be trying to cook their books by not placing orders for new equipment / supplies until early July... you know, being that the 2nd Q is up this week.


Chuck Norris got in touch with his feminine side, and promptly got her pregnant

[Websman]

your GEHL and ECOL are showing strength today.

Oooohhhhh...Lye is showing strength....is he???? JEeeeeeeeejejejeeee!!!

[Lyehopper]

your GEHL and ECOL are showing strength today.

Yes they did. Both of these companies should do very well over the long haul.

[The Stock Girl]

your GEHL and ECOL are showing strength today.

[Lyehopper]

Covered my AKS daytrade for a penny profit.jejeje

I just shorted AKS @12.65 for a daytrade.

Here's how my daytrade went.... I was up over 2% for a while, I'll get it right here soon.lol.... I still have a nice short position in AKS that I plan on holding for a while.