Lyehopper's Roundup....

[spikefader]

X's reaction to the C failure has been an impulse 1 up.......now that's impressive bullishness....

Hey Lye, 5 impulses and 3 correctives followed that bullish move from the 65.10 Fuzzy C.

Current setup is long the 2 completion to target 5 completion. Pretty good r/r anyway. If the C breaks support I don't see the r/r there for a short.

Where do you see this thing going fundy-wise?

[Lyehopper]

Lyehopper,

The price of scrap should significantly drop as more DRI producers come on line.

Read this and tell me what you think: LINK

The last sentence was the most poignant to me.

Do you sell back your scrap at set rates? How often are the prices adjusted? How many tons/year do you sell back?

I think NUE is smart to get in the Iron Ore business. There's only so much scrap out there anyway. And the alloy business is booming.

I think (basic) steel prices will continue to slide. I'm bullish on mfg as a whole this year but I don't think we'll see any huge rally in (basic) steel stocks from here, but I would not short-sell them either. Specialty Mfg'rs should out perform the group. A diversified producer like NUE is poised to to benefit either way though....

About my scrap.... I have no cantracts on rates. I just watch the market and sell when I think the time is right, or when I run out of storage space.... All my clean A36 solids go to STLD locally. I partner with a local scrap reseller (broker) on my other steel drop and my chips. I do stockpile non-ferris scrap in an "in-house stacker" till the market's "right" and I have enough tonnage to make it worth while. I sold off a lot of non-ferris scrap last year. I also partner with two other local mfg'rs on 360CDA brass solids and chips.... We sell directly to the mill when we can put together a truck load of scrap (we share the transport cost).... My other non-ferris metal is sold to a local broker.

[peanuts]

interesting article I just read...

I think NUE is smart to get in the Iron Ore business. There's only so much scrap out there anyway. And the alloy business is booming.

I think (basic) steel prices will continue to slide. I'm bullish on mfg as a whole this year but I don't think we'll see any huge rally in (basic) steel stocks from here, but I would not short-sell them either. Specialty Mfg'rs should out perform the group. A diversified producer like NUE is poised to to benefit either way though....

About my scrap.... I have no cantracts on rates. I just watch the market and sell when I think the time is right, or when I run out of storage space.... All my clean A36 solids go to STLD locally. I partner with a local scrap reseller (broker) on my other steel drop and my chips. I do stockpile non-ferris scrap in an "in-house stacker" till the market's "right" and I have enough tonnage to make it worth while. I sold off a lot of non-ferris scrap last year. I also partner with two other local mfg'rs on 360CDA brass solids and chips.... We sell directly to the mill when we can put together a truck load of scrap (we share the transport cost).... My other non-ferris metal is sold to a local broker.

U.S. steelmakers looking warily at Chinese imports
Thu Jan 18, 2007 4:19 PM ET

By Steve James

NEW YORK, Jan 18 (Reuters) - China has become the largest exporter of steel to the United States and American steelmakers want Washington to do more to protect the domestic industry, the head of the U.S. manufacturers' trade group said on Thursday.

"I think this is a concern for our industry and also the global steel industry," said Louis Schorsch, chairman of the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI).

Steel imports from China, where the industry is heavily subsidized, are expected to be about 5.4 million metric tonnes for 2006, he said. "But the rate is increasing and there is a lot of concern about that, particularly when you think that China, two or three years ago, was barely on the radar screen as an exporting country to the U.S.

"To go to the number one position is a big deal," said Schorsch, also chief executive of the American arm of the world's largest steel maker, Arcelor Mittal <ISPA.AS> <MT.N>.

"China is such a huge force, 420 million tonnes of production last year is the projected number," he told Reuters in his capacity as head of the AISI. "It's all government-owned and the capacity expansion is not necessarily driven by market forces. A 10-percent overshoot is 40 to 50 million tonnes -- that's a huge deal in the global market."

He said over the past 20 to 25 years, government ownership of steel companies in Europe and South America had decreased. "We've kind of weaned ourselves from that and I think it has been a great positive for the world industry.

"Now, to think we're facing that kind of situation again with a country that is one-third of the world industry, that threatens some of the hard-won gains in terms of how our market operates," Schorsch said.

He said the AISI was involved in lobbying the U.S. government to enforce trade laws through the World Trade Organization, including imposing countervailing duties.

"We believe in open trade, but it's got to be rules-based," he said. "The real problem is subsidies. The central government in China recognizes this and, either because they can't or because they have other priorities, they don't seem to be able to restrain the investments and expansion that happens at a regional level."

Andrew Sharkey, president and CEO of the AISI, said the new Democratic-controlled Congress might be more inclined to act against Chinese steel imports.

"You will see a significant ramp-up of legislative activity in the new Congress. You will see greater receptivity to address some of the significant trade issues that our industry faces and some of this legislation will be China specific."

Some action might address "the fact that the Chinese currency is, give or take, 40 percent undervalued.

"China made a lot of commitments when they joined the WTO with regard to subsidies. The industry is not asking for protection, we are simply asking that the U.S. government hold the Chinese to the commitments they made," Sharkey said.

Schorsch said another major issue facing the U.S. steel industry was the current low level of customer inventories, which have prompted some production cuts.

"We're in the midst of an inventory bubble right now. Distributor inventory started to go down in November. We expect we will have worked through that bubble by the end of the first quarter, so right now we're not operating at the levels we would like to operate.

"Prices have come down a fair amount from where they were a year ago. So we are in an adjustment period (but) we don't think it's underlying demand," he said.

[peanuts]

Lyehopper,

Have you ever heard of this company: Metwood? ticker: MTWD.ob

What would make you want to buy the common stock?

Some solid sales growth would really be nice....

But I just don't buy stock in companies this small. The only small company I pump my ca$h into is my own corp.

They reported a gain against a loss in the comparable quarter:

http://biz.yahoo.com/e/070212/mtwd.ob10qsb.html

[Lyehopper]

They reported a gain against a loss in the comparable quarter:

http://biz.yahoo.com/e/070212/mtwd.ob10qsb.html

I still wouldn't buy it....

[spikefader]

How about that X huh!

[spikefader]

How about that X huh!

[spikefader]

Lye, how high is X gonna run do ya think?

[New-born baby]

Lye, how high is X gonna run do ya think?

How high does Spike think X is going to run?

[spikefader]

How high does Spike think X is going to run?

LOL ..... Lord knows! But here's my best estimate for price action over the next couple years.

[Lyehopper]

Lye, how high is X gonna run do ya think?

Don't know.... I am seeing plenty of inventory right now though, at least at a couple of mills I buy from.

[New-born baby]

LOL ..... Lord knows! But here's my best estimate for price action over the next couple years.

Frankly I am looking for $120.

[Lyehopper]

Frankly I am looking for $120.

And right you were NBB, very good call!..... Now what?

[Websman]

Where the hell have you been Lye?

[IIC]

Where the hell have you been Lye?

Who's Lye???


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