The Bear Case

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  • #76
    Failure of the Dow to sustain several rally attempts is very negative. We could be witnessing a meltdown to the 10850 area. Had thought we would see a 3 day rally this week before heading down again. Not looking good right now for the bulls.

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    • #77
      Dude, there was no way to rally the Dow imo.....>We fell back into the weekly channel but was too close to the top rail....You're not looking at the charts, I don't know what you're looking at frankly.....We're headed to that bottom rail now...

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      • #78
        Interesting tape action today with numerous buy and sell computer programs going off. It appears that someone is in trouble -- big trouble and more than likely it is a hedge fund. Just my opinion. That said, the fact that the Dow was able to rally back 60 points from its low for the day has to be a positive.
        Normally, a rally back of such magnitude should bode well for the close, but there are too many cross currents in today's action to really know how we will close. If a large hedge fund is in trouble, all 3 major indices should close near their lows for the day. If not, we could see a nice reversal in the final hour of trading. There is a clear effort IMO to close the Dow over 11100.
        Bottom line: Stocks will either close near their lows for the day or near their highs. Your guess is as good as mine --- maybe even better. <g>

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        • #79
          [QUOTE=Jim Smith]Dude, there was no way to rally the Dow


          Dow has now rallied back 90 pts from its low for the day and is down only 12.
          Tape doesn't lie.

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          • #80
            we could see a nice reversal in the final hour of trading. There is a clear effort IMO to close the Dow over 11100.
            Bottom line: Stocks will either close near their lows for the day or near their highs. >>


            Looking good for the close. Decline is over. Stocks should rally the remainder of the week.

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            • #81
              are you about to change your mind? We closed red....But the VIX spike has me believing a bounce is coming....

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              • #82
                Originally posted by Jim Smith
                are you about to change your mind? We closed red....But the VIX spike has me believing a bounce is coming....
                I just posted that the decline is over and the rest of the week should be positive.

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                • #83
                  The rest of the week may very well be positive......But I will tell you straight up, this decline is NOT over....As I said, watch for the 10 year treasury to yield 4.8% over the next two weeks....This is likley to get the market moving up, not by much.

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                  • #84
                    Originally posted by Jim Smith
                    The rest of the week may very well be positive......But I will tell you straight up, this decline is NOT over....As I said, watch for the 10 year treasury to yield 4.8% over the next two weeks....This is likley to get the market moving up, not by much.
                    The decline is only over very short term. Expect Dow to test 10850 - 10875.

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                    • Websman
                      Senior Member
                      • Apr 2004
                      • 5545

                      #85
                      Originally posted by NY4Ever
                      The decline is only over very short term. Expect Dow to test 10850 - 10875.
                      Going DOWWWWwwwwwwwnnnnnnnnnn!!!!!!!!!!!

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                      • #86
                        Today's action has all the earmarks of a one day dead bounce recovery.

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                        • Websman
                          Senior Member
                          • Apr 2004
                          • 5545

                          #87
                          Originally posted by NY4Ever
                          Today's action has all the earmarks of a one day dead bounce recovery.
                          I agree...Protecting profits is my strategy for now. I'm in cash.

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                          • #88
                            Originally posted by Websman
                            I agree...Protecting profits is my strategy for now. I'm in cash.

                            Smart investor. Preservation of capital is the key to survival on Wall Street.

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                            • #89
                              Market reminds me of May 1962 which does not bode well for the remainder of the month.

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                              • #90
                                Extreme volatility very negative. Sell the rallies. Preserve capital.

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