Adman's Final Outlook

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • Adman's Final Outlook

    William Jennings Bryant wrote, in the early 20th Century, if you open the door to the moral high ground, the weak would exploit it.
    That is what has happened here.

    Unfortunately, I liked this site, but there appears to be a high level of insecurity among some members, that for whatever reason, feel threatened by others success.
    Yes, I was annoyed that some felt that I actually needed to justify my stock picks. Allow me:

    I was a 6th generation member of the NYSE up until February of this year. I started as a runner on the floor in 1973, while in high school. I have a degree in finance from Princeton (“79) and an MBA from Harvard (“84). I earned my CFA designation in 1989 and authored several hundred research papers on Wall Street over the years. Additionally, I have appeared on CNBC over 90 times, (the most recent was in May of 2005).
    With the advent of the Internet, I found sites like these to be quite interesting, and an efficient way to keep my finger on the pulse as to how non industry people react to various market indicators.

    Prior to my leaving the industry in February, it would have been unethical and a violation of NASD rules for me to post on a site such as this. Upon my retirement, I was able to write opinions freely, and I always disclosed any involvement in my picks to avoid any conflict or appearance of front running or otherwise influencing the markets.
    I have temporarily passed on offers from large, well know Wall Street IB’s to write and publish a weekly newsletter to disseminate to their brokers as well as the public. For a price, usually somewhere in the neighborhood of $700 a year, a person could receive such bulletins, the very same information, with a bit more technical analysis, such as calculations of the Black-Sholes option equation, stock dividend models or covariant deviation formulas) that I posted here, for free. My Wall Street pals’ thought I was nuts for passing on what would have amounted to a $650,000 to $750,000 a year position (without bonus).

    Back in the day, well know, household name analyst would routinely contact me for reaffirmation on calls, prior to their releasing their own reports. You guys here had a really good thing that you blew.
    To have someone be petty enough, to call me out because I may have missed a stock or two, or an option on my review list is the height if insecurity and weakness.
    Not one of you here have the track record I have on or off this board, so why circle the wagons?

    I have been a member of this board for 8 weeks, made approximately 85 recommendations, with an overall YTD of 10% (and that’s not annualized), with 4 picks up over 100%, one up close to 200%, 15 up over 30% 20 over 15% and many over 50% (in these cases, buy dates are totally irrelevant, unless you are looking for a meaningless annualized return, which is a complete hypothecation).
    My aggregate negative returns are approximately 3.97%, overall, respectable numbers.

    Now, I must bid you all a fond adieu.
    Happy trading, and remember, do thorough research before taking a position. Never buy blindly on a bulletin board recommendation.
    Cheers.
  • peanuts
    Senior Member
    • Feb 2006
    • 3365

    #2
    it's ego, just ego, they can't help it

    Originally posted by Adman
    William Jennings Bryant wrote, in the early 20th Century, if you open the door to the moral high ground, the weak would exploit it.
    That is what has happened here.

    Unfortunately, I liked this site, but there appears to be a high level of insecurity among some members, that for whatever reason, feel threatened by others success.
    Yes, I was annoyed that some felt that I actually needed to justify my stock picks. Allow me:

    I was a 6th generation member of the NYSE up until February of this year. I started as a runner on the floor in 1973, while in high school. I have a degree in finance from Princeton (“79) and an MBA from Harvard (“84). I earned my CFA designation in 1989 and authored several hundred research papers on Wall Street over the years. Additionally, I have appeared on CNBC over 90 times, (the most recent was in May of 2005).
    With the advent of the Internet, I found sites like these to be quite interesting, and an efficient way to keep my finger on the pulse as to how non industry people react to various market indicators.

    Prior to my leaving the industry in February, it would have been unethical and a violation of NASD rules for me to post on a site such as this. Upon my retirement, I was able to write opinions freely, and I always disclosed any involvement in my picks to avoid any conflict or appearance of front running or otherwise influencing the markets.
    I have temporarily passed on offers from large, well know Wall Street IB’s to write and publish a weekly newsletter to disseminate to their brokers as well as the public. For a price, usually somewhere in the neighborhood of $700 a year, a person could receive such bulletins, the very same information, with a bit more technical analysis, such as calculations of the Black-Sholes option equation, stock dividend models or covariant deviation formulas) that I posted here, for free. My Wall Street pals’ thought I was nuts for passing on what would have amounted to a $650,000 to $750,000 a year position (without bonus).

    Back in the day, well know, household name analyst would routinely contact me for reaffirmation on calls, prior to their releasing their own reports. You guys here had a really good thing that you blew.
    To have someone be petty enough, to call me out because I may have missed a stock or two, or an option on my review list is the height if insecurity and weakness.
    Not one of you here have the track record I have on or off this board, so why circle the wagons?

    I have been a member of this board for 8 weeks, made approximately 85 recommendations, with an overall YTD of 10% (and that’s not annualized), with 4 picks up over 100%, one up close to 200%, 15 up over 30% 20 over 15% and many over 50% (in these cases, buy dates are totally irrelevant, unless you are looking for a meaningless annualized return, which is a complete hypothecation).
    My aggregate negative returns are approximately 3.97%, overall, respectable numbers.

    Now, I must bid you all a fond adieu.
    Happy trading, and remember, do thorough research before taking a position. Never buy blindly on a bulletin board recommendation.
    Cheers.
    When people look at their own portfolios and then see that you could have helped them, but they didn't take your advice, they get defensive. They say to themselves, "who is this guy... some lucky internet fool... my picks are better and I'll prove it" Except, the only way they seem to be able to prove it is by making you seem smaller in their own minds. They can't accept the fact that someone else was more right than they were... it's an ego thing.

    Don't sweat it. You know you're good, and you don't need to prove it to anyone. I for one, enjoyed reading your posts. However, I could not contribute as I could tell you invest on another level. I'm just small peanuts compared to everyone else (hence, the name). I realize that and it sets me apart from the people who have the need to show off. Don't worry, deep down, they know they can't hang with you, they just have a hard time accepting this.

    Please continue your "adman's outlook" I found it to be useful, whether I agreed with your analysis or not. If you quit posting, they win.
    Hide not your talents.
    They for use were made.
    What's a sundial in the shade?

    - Benjamin Franklin

    Comment


    • #3
      Adman,

      I appreciated your posts very much. My only crime was
      that I didn't tell you that I appreciated you posts and for
      that I apologize.

      As to the others? There will always be a difference of
      opinion among posters; some more pleasant than others.
      I would like for you to stay very much. Sigh..... sometimes
      life seems like many are punished for the crimes of the few.

      Would you reconsider? I promise to behave!

      Shadow

      Comment

      • billyjoe
        Senior Member
        • Nov 2003
        • 9014

        #4
        We've really attracted some "important" people here in the past few months. If you don't know who they are just hang around long enough and they'll tell you. Life is too short to put up with this crap. In everyday life I stay away from these people , they'll feed on you if you let them. Call me an a--hole if you don't like my posts, but don't keep it up day after day. I might not agree with your picks today. Tomorrow you might make me some money. Mr. Market has been attacked, insulted, and discredited many times on his site, yet he bears no ill will and continues on his successful path. That trait might contribute more to his hugeness than his analysis. We all should be willing to accept criticism from time to time. Nobody's perfect.

        billyjoe

        Comment


        • #5
          I’ve been lurking on Adman’s picks and I’m impressed. Very good job Adman.. Truly I think we all have nothing to prove to anybody on this forum. I still say what matters is the results in our portfolios. I guess as long as the market has been in existence their will always be conflicts or negative viewpoints regarding stock picks. Does any of this matter? I think not and who is here trying to win a popularity contest? Who gives a rip what people think… Post whatever and not worry about meeting certain people’s expectations. Adman great job with your posts and I understand closing out and moving on..

          Runner..

          Comment

          • gerihearne
            Senior Member
            • Jul 2005
            • 227

            #6
            won't u stay ... just a little bit longer ....

            Adman, stay. You are very much appreciated and highly respected.
            ... and so are those great investors who have been involved in discussions with you. Discussions are what makes this forum so interesting imo. LOVE the give and take!

            Warmest Regards,
            Geri
            Last edited by gerihearne; 04-30-2006, 11:40 AM.

            Comment

            • billyjoe
              Senior Member
              • Nov 2003
              • 9014

              #7
              Adman,
              Despite my post I enjoyed your thread and saw it as a great service to this forum. Lighten up a little. As you can tell just about everyone here values your information and wants you to stay.
              billyjoe

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by Adman
                I have a degree in finance from Princeton (“79) ...
                Really? I was under the impression that Princeton does not have a business college for the undergrads.

                Comment

                • skiracer
                  Senior Member
                  • Dec 2004
                  • 6314

                  #9
                  Originally posted by peanuts
                  When people look at their own portfolios and then see that you could have helped them, but they didn't take your advice, they get defensive. They say to themselves, "who is this guy... some lucky internet fool... my picks are better and I'll prove it" Except, the only way they seem to be able to prove it is by making you seem smaller in their own minds. They can't accept the fact that someone else was more right than they were... it's an ego thing.

                  Don't sweat it. You know you're good, and you don't need to prove it to anyone. I for one, enjoyed reading your posts. However, I could not contribute as I could tell you invest on another level. I'm just small peanuts compared to everyone else (hence, the name). I realize that and it sets me apart from the people who have the need to show off. Don't worry, deep down, they know they can't hang with you, they just have a hard time accepting this.

                  Please continue your "adman's outlook" I found it to be useful, whether I agreed with your analysis or not. If you quit posting, they win.
                  Who and what are you talking about. Who are these people that you are talking about. Are they here on this forum? And what are they going to win?
                  THE SKIRACER'S EDGE: MAKE THE EDGE IN YOUR FAVOR

                  Comment

                  • Gatorman
                    No Posting allowed; invalid email
                    • Dec 2004
                    • 448

                    #10
                    Computer Problems

                    Something has gone terribly wrong with my computer. I saw several messages that must have been intended for the IBD or Yahoo boards that somehow wound up here.
                    I could tell they were mis-directed because they contained attacks on other members, insults, squabbles, name-calling and generally abusive tones. Such is the "stuff" found on IBD and Yahoo but not on the MM board where people are courteous, respectful and informative in their posts.
                    Hopefully, I can defragment my computer and stop it from intercepting these types of messages.
                    Wish me luck.

                    Comment

                    • The Stock Boy

                      #11
                      Originally posted by diogenes
                      Really? I was under the impression that Princeton does not have a business college for the undergrads.

                      You are only partially correct here, although I did not go to Princeton, my younger sister is there now, and she will be heading to the London School of Economics, to spend part of her junior year there. She is studying economics and finance at Princeton.
                      Part of the allure that makes Princeton undergrad better than the rest of the Ivy’s, is that Princeton does not have a graduate school in business, only undergrad, so you are getting the name brand profs as an undergrad, where at the other Ivy’s, you need to be a grad student to get in those classes.

                      I digress. I am sorry to see this escalate the way it has. I got lucky with some of Adman’s picks (and I stress lucky). A while back, in reply to a question I had about finding stocks, he posted 5 for me to get started with. He went on to say that if I got stumped, to email him, and he would help.

                      I did email him, and he replied with his phone number to call him, and spends almost an hour educating me on how to research stocks, and how to find other investment candidates along the way. He did this on three separate occasions for me, a true gentleman.
                      As it turns out, by pure coincidence, he lives in my hometown of Rumson, NJ.
                      I told my dad that this guy was helping me learn the ropes, and my dad was floored. He told me that Adman was “The Captain Of Wall Street”, and that the guy was a living ledged in investment circles (my dad is a mutual fund wholesaler for a big name outfit out of Boston).

                      Point is, I don’t condone Adman blasting us the way he did, but on the other side of the coin, this page was very lucky to have him stop by for a visit. And for the record, I really can’t see a lot of people getting upset with the f –bomb, after all, it has (sadly), worked its’ way well into the American lexicon.
                      Thanks Adman, for your kindness. I hope you return, but I understand why, if you choose not to.

                      Comment

                      • Lyehopper
                        Senior Member
                        • Jan 2004
                        • 3678

                        #12
                        there's Princeton and then there's Princeton....

                        I used to live in Princeton NC in Johnston County..... They have one school k-12.... I finished the 3rd grade there. That's why I'm a superior stock picker.
                        BEEF!... it's whats for dinner!

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by The Stock Boy
                          You are only partially correct here, although I did not go to Princeton, my younger sister is there now, and she will be heading to the London School of Economics, to spend part of her junior year there. She is studying economics and finance at Princeton.
                          Part of the allure that makes Princeton undergrad better than the rest of the Ivy’s, is that Princeton does not have a graduate school in business, only undergrad, so you are getting the name brand profs as an undergrad, where at the other Ivy’s, you need to be a grad student to get in those classes.
                          Well the thing is the finance certificate program your sister is in is a "baby" to the M.S. fin-eng (cash-cow), which both only started in the late 90's.
                          Since mathematical finance has only become hot in the past decade (e.g. Derman and his book) and due to a certain bias at Princeton is seems unlikely that such a program was there before and then took a nap for a bit.

                          Yet, finance is a subset of Economics; hence, it would be possible to say the former in place of the latter.
                          Last edited by Guest; 04-30-2006, 04:41 PM.

                          Comment

                          • billyjoe
                            Senior Member
                            • Nov 2003
                            • 9014

                            #14
                            I took business 101 on the college level. Some of the smartest people I know are also some of the most ignorant if that makes sense. It doesn't matter where you get your information unless you know what to do with it. My mother in law used to be secretary for a miserable human being that later went on to be auditor of a state which I won't name. This person was a menace to everyone , but a very successful politician. Mother in law stated this individual couldn't even figure or understand simple percentages such as 10% of $100 yet became state auditor through intimidation etc. Scary.

                            billyjoe
                            Last edited by billyjoe; 04-30-2006, 04:31 PM.

                            Comment

                            • daskro
                              Member
                              • Sep 2005
                              • 38

                              #15
                              GG defensive assholes. We'll miss you adman, it's not too late to leave.
                              "If you think privatization is corrupt, try without it." _ Anonymous official in response to the Ukrainian parliament's decision to halt the privatization program on the grounds of possible corrupt methods in 1994.

                              Comment

                              Working...
                              X