Doctor Jack's Stock Medicine

[Jack Haddad]

Intc

Although Covello's upgrade by Goldman Sachs on INTC seems impersonal as a result of a broad semiconductor upgrade, Im adamant of the belief that INTCs current share price of 18.30 has baked all the bad news (including a potential warning call for the second quarter earnings). The stock trades at a discount 15 times 2007 earnings, and has plenty of liquid cash to help it survive the slump that it has endured since January of 2006. Because the downside potential is very limited, I would recommend an accumulate with a dollor-cost-averaging fashion hedged by covered call options.

Moreover, the slew of new chips due this summer (Woodcrest, Conroe)have both received great reviews from industry analysts; that said, market share loss to AMD should at the very least be halted or reversed.

[IIC]

According to Robbie Bach, manager of the Xbox video game business, Microsoft is developing a music and video device to compete with Apples iPod and creating its own music service to rival Apples iTunes.

That's what they say:

http://www.iol.co.za/index.php?set_id=1&click_id=31&art_id=qw1150665665852B253

But as I recall MSFT's last venture into that arena about 2 years ago was somewhat of a disaster...Doug(IIC)

[Jack Haddad]

Msft

That's what they say:

http://www.iol.co.za/index.php?set_id=1&click_id=31&art_id=qw1150665665852B253

But as I recall MSFT's last venture into that arena about 2 years ago was somewhat of a disaster...Doug(IIC)

Theyre calling this one the "killer Ipod."

[Jack Haddad]

Intc

An analyst from UBS by the name Tom Thornhill makes the case for INTC, Thornhill, argueing that the compnay has improved its competitive position versus Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and seems poised to show improving gross margins and operating margins for 2008.

While I agree with INTC's competitive improvement against AMD from the stance point of releasing new and better performing chips, I'm not finding any evidence yet of improving gross margins and operating costs. At times, it's beyong me how someone can make such a judgment call without proof of any balance sheet documentary.


Mr. Thornhill also states that INTC is accelerating year-over-year processor unit growth trends (I agree), sustaining growth with less volatility (strongly disagree).

Folks, I understand that INTC has lost nearly 7 points from the January 18, 2006 folloowing the release of their 4th quarter; that said, I totally concur that the stock is oversold. However, one must take into account several items: 1) The company has reduced their revenues by nearly 2 billion from the record 10.5 billion. Furthermore, aggressively trimming down prices on their Pantium D and Celeron chips in access of 60% is not going to help their revenues and gross margins, 2) exceptance of their new chips of Woodcrest, Conroe, and Merom is yet to be demonstrated by the consumer at large, and 3) market share loss to AMD still is a lingering issue.

All in all, this recent run-up in the last 4 days should be taken advantage of. As far as I'm concerned, it's merely a run-up in anticipation of earnings. It's very possible that we see a sell-off two weeks before earnings, either due to profit taking or a very likely warning on reduced 2nd quarter estimates.

[DSteckler]

Theyre calling this one the "killer Ipod."

They can call it anything they want...but that doesn't make it so.

[IIC]

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jack Haddad
Theyre calling this one the "killer Ipod."

They can call it anything they want...but that doesn't make it so.

Yeah...I call my watchlists "IIC's Killer Watchlists"...make a killing or get killed...LOL

[Jack Haddad]

YHOO Finance

Prospective research conducted by Hitwise reveals that Yahoo! Finance is the most popular personal finance Web site in the U.S. with 34.9 percent share of the market. The next most popular personal finance Web site was MSN MoneyCentral with a 13.67 percent share, followed by CNN Money with a 4.50 percent share. By comparison, Google Finance ranked number 38, capturing only 0.28 percent of all visits to major financial sites.

[IIC]

Prospective research conducted by Hitwise reveals that Yahoo! Finance is the most popular personal finance Web site in the U.S. with 34.9 percent share of the market. The next most popular personal finance Web site was MSN MoneyCentral with a 13.67 percent share, followed by CNN Money with a 4.50 percent share. By comparison, Google Finance ranked number 38, capturing only 0.28 percent of all visits to major financial sites.

Google's Finance stuff is a little weak at this point. But as another related side note... Alexa.com which rates the traffic at 16.6 million plus websites shows the following rankings(Not for the Finance sections)

Here are the Top 500 in the World:

http://www.alexa.com/site/ds/top_500

Here are the Top 100 in the US(visits from US users)

http://www.alexa.com/site/ds/top_sites?cc=US&ts_mode=country&lang=none

This Forum is in the Top 4.3%

http://www.alexa.com/data/details/main?q=mrmarketishuge.com&url=mrmarketishuge.com

[DSteckler]

Prospective research conducted by Hitwise reveals that Yahoo! Finance is the most popular personal finance Web site in the U.S. with 34.9 percent share of the market. The next most popular personal finance Web site was MSN MoneyCentral with a 13.67 percent share, followed by CNN Money with a 4.50 percent share. By comparison, Google Finance ranked number 38, capturing only 0.28 percent of all visits to major financial sites.

I think Clearstation is excellent:

http://clearstation.etrade.com/

[Jack Haddad]

I think Clearstation is excellent:

http://clearstation.etrade.com/

Yea, that it is one of my favorites. I also like the layout on CCNmoney.com

[Jack Haddad]

Gold

The month of May has rendered steep losses for gold and silver. It was only in the first week of May that gold hit a 27-year high of 730/ounce. How could such a slump ensue?
Moreover, Price Water Coopers, a global professional services firm, just published an analysis of the world's 40 largest mining companies (ABX, NEM, FCX) which revealed several bearish signs for gold mining companies that are in the brewing. Equally surprising to most industry analysts is that Gold's technicals are a "buy".

The study by the organization mentioned above cited the following:

1) Massive capital spending by miners-- which is worrisome because extra spending results in increased production. In 2005, capital expidenture grew 31% to 31 billion. According to New York- based Commodity-Consulting Company, 63 million of gold was produced in 2005.

2) Increases in unit costs and concern over increased volatility-- which is factual evidence that companies are mining in regions that would not have been profitable at lower metal prices. This will result in additional supply and inventory pile-up that could crush gold prices.

But, from a technical perspective point of view, Gold is in a classic buying area, as it’s recent sharp decline having halted exactly at its 200-day moving average and in a zone of strong support. What is believed to have happened in the last couple of weeks is that, after a steep decline, we witnessed a classic example of “capitulation” where weak hands lose their nerve and throw in the towel.

In examining the 1-year chart, one can point very at the capitulation in the last 3 to 4 weeks followed by 2 days of stabelized prices. Gold has reacted back to its 200-day moving average, and it is way below its 50-day moving average, deeply oversold and is currently just above a zone of strong support. It should be pointed out, however, that it is not likely to go straight back up from here. The vicious plunge last week took its toll on sentiment and so gold is likely to thrash around for a while forming a base area, probably between about $540 and $590, which may continue for some weeks or even a month or two, which will will allow the 50-day moving average to drop down towards the 200-day. Any retreat towards $550 short-term will be regarded as a major buying opportunity, which will have the advantage that a fairly close stop can be employed to limit downside.

Gold's recent parabolic advance looks decidedly tame compared to the late spike of the 70s. Barron's stated that fact as well in their May 22nd edition of 2006. When you take inflation into factorization to equal the 1980 peak of 850 in real terms, gold would have to rise to 2500/ounce. At its recent peak, it was only about 220/ounce above its 1983 and 1987 highs. That said, breaching above the 1983 and 1987 peaks was a major technical support event. Should gold drift lower in the near future, it could be expected to provide even stronger support.

[lemonjello]

What up doc?

That's some good analysis you did there doc.

The month of May has rendered steep losses for gold and silver. It was only in the first week of May that gold hit a 27-year high of 730/ounce. How could such a slump ensue?
Moreover, Price Water Coopers, a global professional services firm, just published an analysis of the world's 40 largest mining companies (ABX, NEM, FCX) which revealed several bearish signs for gold mining companies that are in the brewing. Equally surprising to most industry analysts is that Gold's technicals are a "buy".

The study by the organization mentioned above cited the following:

1) Massive capital spending by miners-- which is worrisome because extra spending results in increased production. In 2005, capital expidenture grew 31% to 31 billion. According to New York- based Commodity-Consulting Company, 63 million of gold was produced in 2005.

2) Increases in unit costs and concern over increased volatility-- which is factual evidence that companies are mining in regions that would not have been profitable at lower metal prices. This will result in additional supply and inventory pile-up that could crush gold prices.

But, from a technical perspective point of view, Gold is in a classic buying area, as it’s recent sharp decline having halted exactly at its 200-day moving average and in a zone of strong support. What is believed to have happened in the last couple of weeks is that, after a steep decline, we witnessed a classic example of “capitulation” where weak hands lose their nerve and throw in the towel.

In examining the 1-year chart, one can point very at the capitulation in the last 3 to 4 weeks followed by 2 days of stabelized prices. Gold has reacted back to its 200-day moving average, and it is way below its 50-day moving average, deeply oversold and is currently just above a zone of strong support. It should be pointed out, however, that it is not likely to go straight back up from here. The vicious plunge last week took its toll on sentiment and so gold is likely to thrash around for a while forming a base area, probably between about $540 and $590, which may continue for some weeks or even a month or two, which will will allow the 50-day moving average to drop down towards the 200-day. Any retreat towards $550 short-term will be regarded as a major buying opportunity, which will have the advantage that a fairly close stop can be employed to limit downside.

Gold's recent parabolic advance looks decidedly tame compared to the late spike of the 70s. Barron's stated that fact as well in their May 22nd edition of 2006. When you take inflation into factorization to equal the 1980 peak of 850 in real terms, gold would have to rise to 2500/ounce. At its recent peak, it was only about 220/ounce above its 1983 and 1987 highs. That said, breaching above the 1983 and 1987 peaks was a major technical support event. Should gold drift lower in the near future, it could be expected to provide even stronger support.

[Jack Haddad]

That's some good analysis you did there doc.

Thanks....

[Jack Haddad]

SINA and SOHU

China's lack of freedom of press and expression is once again reminding all of us of their unease with the information highway. Both SINA and SOHU have been blocked by authorities in Beijing, apparently due to their failure to effectively block access to sites with content the government considers offensive. Is this rediculous or what!?

[Websman]

China's lack of freedom of press and expression is once again reminding all of us of their unease with the information highway. Both SINA and SOHU have been blocked by authorities in Beijing, apparently due to their failure to effectively block access to sites with content the government considers offensive. Is this rediculous or what!?

I've spent some time in China and I can tell you from personal experience that most of the younger people would love to leave there.