Doctor Jack's Stock Medicine

[Jack Haddad]

All I have remaining in TSO is 3000 shares from 69.30

Sold 3,000 shares at 74.59. Completely out of TSO

[peanuts]

regarding AMMD:

I initiated a mid-term position at 15.28 about 5 minutes ago. Small enough to matter, but not big enough to care.


Chuck Norris does not sleep, he waits.

I sold this morning at $16.51, a nice 8% profit in 1 week... so much for a mid-term position. I just wanted +7.5% and I got it.

[Jack Haddad]

I sold this morning at $16.51, a nice 8% profit in 1 week... so much for a mid-term position. I just wanted +7.5% and I got it.

That is a nice profit. I mat hold mine a little longer. Not sure yet.

[peanuts]

Hey Doc,

Dr. Jack,

I've got this itch... You see, I keep wanting to add to my NSS position (in a seperate account for ST trading) These last 5 days look like I should go long for about 3 points @ 55. What do you think?

btw: I already hold this, but in another account, since late Dec 05.

[Jack Haddad]

Nss

Dr. Jack,

I've got this itch... You see, I keep wanting to add to my NSS position (in a seperate account for ST trading) These last 5 days look like I should go long for about 3 points @ 55. What do you think?

btw: I already hold this, but in another account, since late Dec 05.

Technically, the chart is very bullish! The 52 week high will be taken out as the stock, at 55, is slightly above the pivatol point of 54.75.

Fundamentally, the valuation of the compnay is real cheap. I especially like the 8.2 short Interest as % of public float. A stock thinly traded stock like that could slaughter the shorts.

[New-born baby]

Counterpoint

Dr. Jack, I've got this itch... You see, I keep wanting to add to my NSS position (in a seperate account for ST trading) These last 5 days look like I should go long for about 3 points @ 55. What do you think?

Yes, the chart is very bullish. Certainly bears watching for a good entry.
I know: I am an uninvited guest here. But as a friend, here are a few considerations about NSS:

1. Double top or cup with handle? You never know until the market shows you. This could be an explosive formation up, or a disaster down. Jack already mentioned that 8.2% of the float is betting "double top." Let's call this "warning sign one."

2. These last five days the volume has been below average. Rising prices on low volume is bearish. That's warnig sign two.

3. Friday's action was 'an Evening star' doji. It signals a pause in the trend. Well, the trend has certainly been "up." Truthfully, I look for NSS to fall back for at least a few days to consolidate the gains, or retest the support at $52. (Can we say that this means "warning sign three" against taking a long right here until that resistance line is busted on volume? Or until the support at $52 is retested?).

I would just kindly suggest that you consider waiting until the chart resolves itself. A bust of resistance on volume would be my entry, or even better, a retest of the busted resistance line at $55.10. Furthermore I might add that I would expect NSS to retreat Monday $1-2 because it seems that over the weekend, the shorting demons study the charts pretty heavily, and they pounce on formations like this one. JMHO. And very soon we shall see if there was any wisdom in this post.

[Jack Haddad]

Homebuilder stocks

The steep sell-off in home building stocks (KB, TOL, HOV, and other.) does not make sense when they have cratered 50% to 65% while they have continued to post 25%-plus earnings growth). The current valuations of these stocks make no sense.

For example, D.R. Horton, KB Home, and Pulte Homes, are all trading at just four or five times the previous 12 months' earnings, making them the cheapest stocks in the entire S&P 500. Profits would have to decline 50% or more to justify such valuations, and there's simply no reason to think that's going to happen.

Bill Miller of Legg Mason Fund has been buying homebuilders like mad.

[Jack Haddad]

Pcu

This is a U.S. mining company with big operations in Peru and Mexico which plunged about 30% from a high in mid-May. Not only has it faced an inflation-triggered decline in global copper prices from $4 to $3 a pound, but the company has also been hit by labor strikes at two Mexican mines. At $75 a share, the stock trades at seven times earnings and boasts a dividend yield of 11%... For a company that is expected to boost earnings by 55 to 60 percent , that ain't an expensive stock at all.

[IIC]

The steep sell-off in home building stocks (KB, TOL, HOV, and other.) does not make sense when they have cratered 50% to 65% while they have continued to post 25%-plus earnings growth). The current valuations of these stocks make no sense.

For example, D.R. Horton, KB Home, and Pulte Homes, are all trading at just four or five times the previous 12 months' earnings, making them the cheapest stocks in the entire S&P 500. Profits would have to decline 50% or more to justify such valuations, and there's simply no reason to think that's going to happen.

Bill Miller of Legg Mason Fund has been buying homebuilders like mad.

Well...I beg to differ w/ you Jack...Maybe home prices are holding their own in No. Cal???...But they are dropping FAST in So. Cal...New Homes selling...because of incentives...But it's OVER...Done with...Need to wait another 9 years IMO...Real Estate is a Sucker Play now IMO...Who cares what past earnings were???...Let's look forward...IIC

[IIC]

No offense Jack...But since my last post I have been thinkin' about what you said re: Builders...I just don't see it???...Happens in every RE boom...They just give it away at the end...like now...Doug(IIC)

[billyjoe]

Jack,
I agree with Doug on homebuilders , a long wait until they come back , but PCU is a different story . Problems will be settled and demand will lead to increase in copper shortly . Made money on this last year but stupidly sold before the big rise.
--------billyjoe

[skiracer]

No offense Jack...But since my last post I have been thinkin' about what you said re: Builders...I just don't see it???...Happens in every RE boom...They just give it away at the end...like now...Doug(IIC)

I have a real estate business and my wife and I are both licensed here in NJ. The best indicator I know of to illustrate and give me a feel of how business is going is the multiple listing book. This is the book that contains all the listings for sale. Last year and the year before that the book was about 3/8" thick. The thinness means that as the new listings came on they would sell off in no time and the inventory was almost nothing. Brokers were fighting like mad for listings. Over the past 12 months the multiple listing book has increased in thickness to about 1 1/2 inches which translates to increased inventory which means that there is a much greater increase in inventory and that resales are selling at a much slower pace. The thickness of the multiple listing book is the surest indicator of how the market is working. We are in for a big softening in the resales and sales of new homes market. The housing and building sectors are the sectors that along with the banking, refinances, sectors are the ones that have been driving the markets the past 2/3 years. It is coming to an end an it is on the downward side of the slope. Without the strength of those sectors to drive the markets it could get alot worse over the long run. Just an observation of what is happening on the east coast from someone who is very involved in the housing and real estate market in general.

[IIC]

Jack,
I agree with Doug on homebuilders , a long wait until they come back , but PCU is a different story . Problems will be settled and demand will lead to increase in copper shortly . Made money on this last year but stupidly sold before the big rise.
--------billyjoe

Stupidly???...I don't think so...I played CUP myself...Too much Commie Dictator unrest in So. America...I recommend staying as far away as possible...Wouldn't you hate to wake up one morning ...Turn on the computer...And find out your copper is worth just about as much as the lint in your belly button?...That is a possibility...Doug(IIC)

[IIC]

I have a real estate business and my wife and I are both licensed here in NJ. The best indicator I know of to illustrate and give me a feel of how business is going is the multiple listing book. This is the book that contains all the listings for sale. Last year and the year before that the book was about 3/8" thick. The thinness means that as the new listings came on they would sell off in no time and the inventory was almost nothing. Brokers were fighting like mad for listings. Over the past 12 months the multiple listing book has increased in thickness to about 1 1/2 inches which translates to increased inventory which means that there is a much greater increase in inventory and that resales are selling at a much slower pace. The thickness of the multiple listing book is the surest indicator of how the market is working. We are in for a big softening in the resales and sales of new homes market. The housing and building sectors are the sectors that along with the banking, refinances, sectors are the ones that have been driving the markets the past 2/3 years. It is coming to an end an it is on the downward side of the slope. Without the strength of those sectors to drive the markets it could get alot worse over the long run. Just an observation of what is happening on the east coast from someone who is very involved in the housing and real estate market in general.

It's not coming to an end...It's OVER...However, refinancing will continue to do well.

New home builders are giving things away...They will continue to do so...I have been hoarding cash myself to get in on some distress RE deals towards the end of '07 myself...Doug

[skiracer]

It's not coming to an end...It's OVER...However, refinancing will continue to do well.

New home builders are giving things away...They will continue to do so...I have been hoarding cash myself to get in on some distress RE deals towards the end of '07 myself...Doug

Totally agree with you Doug. Shortly the people with disposable cash will be able to take advantage of other peoples misfortune. Those who are leveraged and financed will be looking to take whatever they can get to pay off their debt. Then the sharks come in and the bloodletting begins. My wife an I just had dinner with my brother-in-law and his family and we were talking about the same thing. Grabbing as much land and existing homes as we could afford with our cash on hand. It's just part of the cycle. Like stocks, buy cheap under depressed conditions and sell high.
This is actually going to turn out to be a great opportunity in the real estate business.
Sorry but I can't agree with you on the refi's. I think they are done for awhile. The rise in rates will slow that sector down tremendously. It will also stiffle the home builders regardless of how cheap they want to give it away. They are all leveraged to the hilt and won't be able to continue as they have in the past without the benefit of the refi's and existing homeowners moving up to larger homes.