Doctor Jack's Stock Medicine

[New-born baby]

I had posted earlier about GNBT, and Dr Jack had given me his insight on the company's standing in the overall market right now, which was very helpful.

If Dr Jack or anyone else has any input or opinions on it I would appreciate it. I am writing a paper for a summer class on GNBT and need to get as many people's opinion as possible. I have already quoted Dr Jack in my paper.

I just checked the chart on GNBT. It is a bearish chart. The Point and Figure chart says GNBT may move all the way down to $0.00. I am not be mean; I am telling you what the computer generated chart says. IF I were to buy this stock, I would not want to own it IF the price moved below $1.65. That is the bottom support right now. IF I did buy this stock and it moved up, I'd put a trailing stop under it so that I would not lose my profit. In other words, you have a risky play in GNBT. Best wishes.

Here's the PnF:


Here's the bearish daily:

[Websman]

Hey JC...welcome to the forum. Anyway, FWIW, I believe you will find not only a lot of good stock ideas here...But you are also going to run into a lot of humor. We are all different...So what might be funny to some may not be so to others.

And some people just want to be all biz...But I'll tell 'ya...If investing is not fun...I wouldn't bother...Obviously, it is more fun when I'm on a roll...But even when I'm losing it is still fun...When it stops being fun, then I'll go do something else...Just a suggestion...Best, Doug(IIC)

Excellent advice there Dougy. Investing is a LOT of fun!

[jcohen918]

I'm sorry for jumping the gun and over reacting. I am trying to finish up my last summer class and start my career soon. I have been trading for a while, but finally will get to showcase my skills once I start for a hedge fund in september. I didn't mean to jump down everyone's throat, I was asking for ideas and opinions... whether its was from Dr Jack or not. I wanted everyone's input, not negativity. Apologies to all.

[Jack Haddad]

Intc

It is very evident now that Intel's price cuts are hurting AMD. Intel has priced its Pentium D and Celeron products below AMD's Athlon and Sempron. That said, vendors remain confident about a seasonal pick-up during the third-quarter due largely to Intel's new processor and platform launches, as well as price cuts.

Furthermore, Intel sold 14.7% of the world's microchips last year, according to Gartner, almost twice the share of No. 2 ranked Samsung Electronics and exponentially more than the 1.7% global share that AMD held. It will spend $5.6 billion on R&D this year, compared with $5.1 billion last year and $4.8 billion for 2004. AMD's R&D spending is expected to be around $1.1 billion this year, flat with last year and up from $934 million for 2004.

I understand the frustration that longs have experienced since January 17,2006 (When INTC surprised the street by dissapointing on both revenues an earnings without a prior warning). But, the stock is so unvervalued and cheap now that every dip is a buying opportunity.

[Jack Haddad]

Gnbt

I just checked the chart on GNBT. It is a bearish chart. The Point and Figure chart says GNBT may move all the way down to $0.00. I am not be mean; I am telling you what the computer generated chart says. IF I were to buy this stock, I would not want to own it IF the price moved below $1.65. That is the bottom support right now. IF I did buy this stock and it moved up, I'd put a trailing stop under it so that I would not lose my profit. In other words, you have a risky play in GNBT. Best wishes.

Here's the PnF:


Here's the bearish daily:

I view today's upside as a chance to take out the 2.10 resistance. If 2.10 is taken out, the stock is in good shape to test the next resistance of 2.60. Thereafter, it looks like that gap on March 27, 2006 from 3.57 to 3.37 may fill and propel the stock higher. Shorterm is very critical...At 1.85, it appear that the stock closed on an inflection point. I would watch it very carefully tomorrow during the first 30min of trading.

[Jack Haddad]

Gnbt

I view today's upside as a chance to take out the 2.10 resistance. If 2.10 is taken out, the stock is in good shape to test the next resistance of 2.60. Thereafter, it looks like that gap on March 27, 2006 from 3.57 to 3.37 may fill and propel the stock higher. Shorterm is very critical...At 1.85, it appear that the stock closed on an inflection point. I would watch it very carefully tomorrow during the first 30min of trading.

In regards to the fundamentals, the book value per share comes to about .35 cents. Here is what I found troubling: their total cash per share is .24 versus a total debt/equity of .19 Theyre in too much debt; that coupled with a negative operating cash flow of -9.00 million is not a stock I would prefer to invest in.

It's also interesting to note the price differential between different institutions and top company holders. Mutual fund holders are: Reynolds Fund which bought 40,000 at .04 on 3/31/06. Apex MID-CAP Growth Fund has 2,000 at .00 3/31/06. Imagine if they decide to dump their shares?! But, their shares are nothing compared to Polygen Investment Partners LLP who own 534,085 at .60

It appears that the above positions were as recent as 3/31/06. Is something magic about that date? I don't think these institutions are likely to dump soon

[Rob]

Intc

. . . the stock [INTC] is so unvervalued and cheap now that every dip is a buying opportunity.

Jack, the Jan. '08 $20 calls sold for as low as $1.80 yesterday and closed at $1.95. To me that sounds like a reasonably safe speculative buy. It's less than five weeks since INTC last closed above $20, and $20 is only 15.6 x earnings over the past 4 quarters. ... Thoughts?

[Jack Haddad]

Jack, the Jan. '08 $20 calls sold for as low as $1.80 yesterday and closed at $1.95. To me that sounds like a reasonably safe speculative buy. It's less than five weeks since INTC last closed above $20, and $20 is only 15.6 x earnings over the past 4 quarters. ... Thoughts?

Rob, very interesting. However, I try to refrain from buying calls alone becuase of the decay in the time value, especially in the presence of the MM crooks. I only like buying calls when theyre deep in the money because they depreciate very little, and theyre easier to dollar coast average.

[Jack Haddad]

Tol

Sold open 400 July strike 30 calls at .45/contract. The selling is insane on this sector and I would like to maximize by taking advantage of the ride up. TOL is a likely merger or buying acquisition target.

Sold 4 blokcs at 27.48, and bought back the 400 July 40 calls at .70. All in all, my transaction on TOL resulted in a .50/contract x 400 gain on the calls, and .08 cents gain per share. Ot of TOL completely until further notice.

[jcohen918]

Thanks to everyone for giving me their input on GNBT. Appreciate it.

[jcohen918]

gnbt

Thanks to everyone for giving me their input on GNBT. Appreciate it.

[Lyehopper]

I'm sorry for jumping the gun and over reacting. I am trying to finish up my last summer class and start my career soon.

Great!.... I'm looking for industrious farmhands. Does working outdoors, driving tractors, building fences, shooting coyotes and groundhogs and castrating bull calves sound appealing?.... If so, I have JUST THE JOB FOR YOU!

[hotty21]

A thought !

"It's also interesting to note the price differential between different institutions and top company holders. Mutual fund holders are: Reynolds Fund which bought 40,000 at .04 on 3/31/06. Apex MID-CAP Growth Fund has 2,000 at .00 3/31/06. Imagine if they decide to dump their shares?! But, their shares are nothing compared to Polygen Investment Partners LLP who own 534,085 at .60

I apologize if I sound amateurish, but I checked the mutual fund holdings and it seems that Reynolds Fund bought 40,000 at a total cost 153,500 which comes to about $ 3.07 and not .04. Similarly the cost basis of all other buyers comes to about the same price $ 3.

Please feel free to comment, just my observation.

Great Board and Thanks to all !!

PS: I think that this is my first real post here.

[Jack Haddad]

I apologize if I sound amateurish, but I checked the mutual fund holdings and it seems that Reynolds Fund bought 40,000 at a total cost 153,500 which comes to about $ 3.07 and not .04. Similarly the cost basis of all other buyers comes to about the same price $ 3.

Please feel free to comment, just my observation.

Great Board and Thanks to all !!

PS: I think that this is my first real post here.

No problem. Here is a public link that confirms the numbers I stated. My proprietary system (which I wish I could provide) also confirms the very exact dates and figures.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/mh?s=GNBT

[hotty21]

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/mh?s=GNBT

Jack:

Thats the link I used in the first place. Let me understand from the example:

Holder: POLYGON INVESTMENT PARTNERS LLP
Shares: 534,085
% Out .60
Value* Reported: $1,639,640
Date: 31-Mar-06

I see that you are using the 0.6 as $ value (which is % Out- I am not even sure what that means) and I am using the $ value by dividing the Value Reported by # of shares.