Rob's Lobs

[Rob]

ALDA Looks Ripe

Do you still follow CYTC?

Like I said, I do keep it on my streamer, but as far as keeping up with their quarterlies and developments, etc., I haven't for a long time.

Back to ALDA.... I think it might slide to around $15 Rob....

15? I'm not saying it's impossible, just highly unlikely. The P/E is now at 9; at 15 bucks a share the P/E would be 5.8. The R.O.E. is 34.7; they've got almost $17M in cash with zero debt. This baby looks for all the world to be low-hanging fruit. What are you seeing that I'm not?

[Rob]

The Screen Results

The results of the two screens I've been tracking more or less reflect the ugliness of the market. Here they are, for whatever you may care to read from them:

[billyjoe]

Rockin' Rob,

July 16th : After more than 30 years since releasing an album , the New York Dolls 2 surviving members Sylvain Sylvain and David Johanson aka Buster Poindexter will soon be entering the recording studio. Four former members have died of drug abuse and various illness.

----------I've got what must be a rare item , an autographed poster that reads: to billyjoe with all our love , The New York Dolls.

----------billyjoe

[Rob]

The Screens This Weekend

The momentum screen turned up these 43 stocks this weekend. The blue ones are new to the list:

AHS AMH AMT ARP AVA AZN BPO BRG CGC CLRK CN DAKT DTLK EEFT EPAX FLS GILD GPRO GRMN GSK HANS HC HES HOLX HWAY ICUI ISRG KNXA LKQX LTM MINI NVS NYM PAY RMKR RUSHA SAM SHR STRL TXT VOL WCC WXS

Dropped from last week's scan:

ALB AQNT ARA BAY CASY CINF CNQR CTBK CTRP FIF FLAG FSTF GDI IDCC KEM LCAV LUX POOL RHI RMD RVSB SBUX SMDI TIBB TNL VLG WFR XTXI

The PNKUWG screen:

ANR ATA CHK HW IMCL LEND NVT OIS PRZ PVR TARR TGA UTHR VPHM XTO

Dropped from last week's scan:

ECA FRGB UNT

[Rob]

What The Charts Don't Tell You

EBAY's days are numbered Rob

You underestimate the earnings power of this company, my chart-gazing friend.

As you look at the numbers below, consider: For FY '07 EBAY's earnings are forecast to outpace the S&P by 498% while currently selling at a multiple only 104% above the S&P. EBAY's P/E is only 72% of its industry's average, while its earnings growth is expected to outpace the industry by 10% over the next 5 years.

When John and Jane Q. Public realize the dent that shelling out $50+ to fill their gas tank is making in their month-to-month financial well-being, they will start looking for ways to save. Guess what that means. More business for EBAY. Not only can they acquire their goodies at a cheaper price, but they don't have to deplete their precious supply of fuel in the SUV.

And that's just in the U.S. I recall Meg Whitman in a recent interview alluding to the fact that EBAY's international revenue stream is growing faster than the domestic.

The idea is to "buy low and sell high." Well, EBAY is low. Can it go lower? Only a fool would say it cannot. The question is: what are the chances it will go significantly lower from here? Answer: pretty slim.

Some real, solid reasoning behind a buy recommendation (a relative rarity on this MB) brought to you by the friendly folks at Rob's Lobs.

[Rob]

Intermec (IN) -- RFID Stuff

Intermec (IN) is hotter than a two-dollar pistol today. Yesterday too.

-----------------------------------


AP
Intermec, Symbol Settle Patent Disputes
Tuesday July 18, 8:54 am ET Intermec, Symbol Agree to License Technology, Settle Patent Disputes

EVERETT, Wash. (AP) -- Intermec Inc., a maker of radio-frequency identification tags, said Tuesday it agreed with Symbol Technologies Inc. to cross-license certain patents, settling all intellectual property claims between the two rivals.

The specific terms of the agreement were not disclosed, but the companies said they have released all patent-infringement damage claims against each other.
In 2005, Symbol, which makes technologies used to track shipments and inventories, filed suits alleging Intermec infringed patents related to bar-code scanning. Intermec countersued, alleging Symbol infringed patents it held covering similar technologies.

[billyjoe]

Geez Rob,
They look a lot better than the dudes on my New York Dolls poster.

--------billyjoe

[Rob]

EBAY - Overwiegt

----------------------------------------
eBay "overweight"

Tuesday, July 18, 2006 4:08:43 AM ET
Prudential Financial

NEW YORK, July 18 (newratings.com) - Analyst Mark J Rowen of Prudential Financial maintains his "overweight" rating on eBay Inc (EBAY.NAS). The target price is set to $40.

In a research note published yesterday, the analyst mentions that the company has reported that the listings on its core US site climbed 23.1% y/y in the week ended July 14. The quarter-to-date listings on eBay US, eBay Germany and eBay UK rose by approximately 22.8%, 73.0% and 63.9% y/y, respectively, the analyst says. The vehicle and auto parts categories on eBay Motors registered 11.3% and 45.9% growth, respectively, Prudential Financial adds. [emphasis mine]
----------------------------------------

The $40 target would be a multiple of 52.6 based on the last 12 months' earnings as of today. Of course by the time 40 is achieved, the earnings will have increased, driving the target further upward.

[Rob]

Well, that's for each individual to decide for himself, but whatever the case, I bet you could find one on

[Rob]

Fire Insurance

Re: , knowing how quickly things can head south on earnings—even if the earnings are good—I went ahead and bought enough July $25 puts, for a buck each, to cover my rear end.

[Rob]

Thankfully, It Appears I Won't Be Needing Those Puts After All

WSJ UPDATE: EBay Net Falls Amid Signs Of Maturing Growth
19 July 2006
06:14 PM

By Mylene Mangalindan
Of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL


SAN FRANCISCO (Dow Jones)--EBay Inc.'s (EBAY) second-quarter profit fell 14% while revenue rose 30%, as the Internet auctioneer generated less revenue per product listing in a sign of its maturing growth.

But the San Jose, Calif., company also announced its first-ever stock buyback of as much as $2 billion over the next two years, in an attempt to highlight its long-term confidence in the business. In addition, eBay's financial results matched Wall Street expectations and it forecast higher full-year profits, pushing its shares up around 6% in after-hours trading.

Still, in a troubling sign of eBay's growth prospects, revenue per listing declined 10% in the quarter from a year ago, according to estimates from Goldman Sachs. Revenue per listing is an important measure of eBay's profitability, which has come under pressure as more rivals have entered the Internet auction business and as some sellers have gravitated to competing sites. EBay has also faced other challenges of late, as rival Google Inc. (GOOG) has increasingly encroached on its turf, and as several top executives have left the company, sparking fears of a brain drain.

For the three months ended June 30, eBay posted net income of $250 million, or 17 cents per share, compared with $291.6 million, or 21 cents, in the year-earlier period. The quarter included stock-based compensation expenses, which the company began including this year to reflect new accounting rules. Excluding stock-based compensation of $60 million, or 4 cents a share, eBay earned $310 million, or 22 cents, up 6% from a year ago. Operating income rose 14% to $351 million, or 24 cents per share, matching Wall Street's forecast.

Revenue rose to $1.4 billion from $1.09 billion, in line with Wall Street's forecast of $1.41 billion.

EBay reported results after the market close. As of 4 p.m., its stock was at $25.93, down 66 cents. In after-hours trading, the stock rose to $27.40.

Tellingly, however, eBay's store and fixed-price listings - which generate lower revenue and profit - grew faster than the company's more profitable core auction listings over the quarter. Store listings take 14 times longer on average to sell than auction listings, which typically sell in about two weeks, according to Bill Cobb, who operates eBay's North American auction marketplace business. Store listings also cost the company more to host on its site. As a result, eBay said Wednesday that it would raise some fees for store listings in order to encourage sellers to post more auction listings.

"The core auction growth has not grown as fast as we would like," said eBay Chief Executive Meg Whitman in an interview. Not only has the buyer's experience suffered, with fewer return visits and fewer conversions to sales, she said, but "it has diluted the magic of eBay." Still, she said the problem wasn't systemic and was confident that the steps the company is taking to promote auctions will work.

EBay also modestly raised its 2006 earnings forecast to 69 cents to 72 cents, up from a range of 65 cents to 71 cents previously. The company also said it now expects full-year operating income of 98 cents to $1.01, up from a previous forecast of 96 cents to $1.01. The company didn't change its 2006 revenue forecast of $5.7 billion to $5.9 billion. However, it said it expects third-quarter revenue of $1.36 billion to $1.43 billion, below the current Wall Street forecast of $1.434 billion.

- By Mylene Mangalindan, The Wall Street Journal, 415-765-6114 [ 07-19-06 1814ET ]

[Runner]

Rob here is my read on EBAY’s chart FWIW:

Monthly longer-term trendline broke
Weekly displays bear flag or wedge for year 2005, sitting at support
Daily indicates serious downtrend in place. I won’t rule out a bounce into high 29’s or low 30’s. Good luck and I hope this thing does not hit the 16.00 area over the next several months. Now that all the negative news is out of the way. I do see some possible support off the weekly at current price levels. This support goes back to 2003. If current levels drop off here I’d be very cautious on the long side…

I’ll say bullish as long as this support holds if it drops out here I’d flip to bear on EBAY

Key=weekly support holding!!

[spikefader]

You underestimate the earnings power of this company, my chart-gazing friend.

As you look at the numbers below, consider: For FY '07 EBAY's earnings are forecast to outpace the S&P by 498% while currently selling at a multiple only 104% above the S&P. EBAY's P/E is only 72% of its industry's average, while its earnings growth is expected to outpace the industry by 10% over the next 5 years.

When John and Jane Q. Public realize the dent that shelling out $50+ to fill their gas tank is making in their month-to-month financial well-being, they will start looking for ways to save. Guess what that means. More business for EBAY. Not only can they acquire their goodies at a cheaper price, but they don't have to deplete their precious supply of fuel in the SUV.

And that's just in the U.S. I recall Meg Whitman in a recent interview alluding to the fact that EBAY's international revenue stream is growing faster than the domestic.

The idea is to "buy low and sell high." Well, EBAY is low. Can it go lower? Only a fool would say it cannot. The question is: what are the chances it will go significantly lower from here? Answer: pretty slim.

Some real, solid reasoning behind a buy recommendation (a relative rarity on this MB) brought to you by the friendly folks at Rob's Lobs.

Thanks Rob! I appreciate this solid FA reasoning. Nice picture too hehe

This one's really not so nice, but I did it for ya anyway.

Best to ya! Hope ya make a killin'.

[mrmarket]

Ladies and germs, I proclaim that ALDA is a great buy today. Mark my words on this. If the next few weeks and months prove this to be a bad call, feel free to come here and regale me with your noisiest raspberries.

But if time shows that this was indeed a great call, I'll be sure to remind you where you heard it first!

Anyone want to try to convince me that I'm wrong on this one?

Nice little company. If you look at the 5 yr chart, it certainly looks like it is setting up to continue its run.

On the fundamental side, I like the margins but revenues have kind of slowed a little.

[Jack Haddad]

Imcl

Rob, here is an article on IMCL's court ruling that you might find helpful:

http://online.barrons.com/article/SB115292001356607488.html?mod=rss_barrons_technology