Rob's Lobs

[Rob]

Oh, NO!

Friday January 25, 7:27 am ET

Brewers Carlsberg and Heineken to Buy Scottish & Newcastle for $15.3 Billion

LONDON (AP) -- Brewers Carlsberg and Heineken will buy beermaker Scottish & Newcastle for $15.3 billion, the companies said Friday.

Scottish & Newcastle PLC, which rejected two earlier bids, agreed to an all-cash offer of 800 pence ($15.6 per share.

From the story it appears that Heineken is going to take control of Newcastle's British operations. Karel, tell your brewmaster pals over there in Amsterdam that if they take me favorite ale, Newcastle Brown, and ruin it, I'll never forgive them. They might say, "Please forgive us, Rob. We were only trying to make it better ... " and I will tell them, "I am disinclined to acquiesce to your request."

[Rob]

Cool .......

............ nice double bottom, though the waters still might be a bit choppy.

[mimo_100]

P & F chart

P & F chart bearish price objective at end of day 1/22/2008 was 11500.
Close was 11971 -- we are almost there.

[Rob]

Thicket

Rob is predicting a positive close today on at least one—if not on all three—indices.

Another prediction bites the dust. But if you consider that the DJIA closed 336 points off the low of the day, that could turn out to be the capitulation day. Unfortunately, the futures at the moment are about 200 points below fair value, indicating we aren't quite out of the woods yet. Pretty close, though, I think.

[Rob]

. . . the Fed may knock 75 basis points off the funds rate. If that happens, then I'd be surprised if the market doesn't gain ground today.

Rob is predicting a positive close today on at least one—if not on all three—indices.

[Rob]

Here Are Some Marbles for Your Head ...

... let 'em roll around in there fer a spell, and see what sort of sound they make.

So what's the deal with First Marblehead (FMD)?

(Marketwire, Jan 14) The First Marblehead Corporation (NYSE: FMD) today announced that it will release its financial and operating results for the three-month period ended December 31, 2007 after market close on Thursday, January 31, 2008. The Company will host a conference call at 5:00 p.m. EST that afternoon to discuss its results. Jack L. Kopnisky, Chief Executive Officer and President, and John A. Hupalo, Chief Financial Officer, will host the call.

Investors and other interested parties are invited to listen to the conference call by dialing (800) 573-4752 in the United States or (617) 224-4324 from abroad (pass code 41399597), or via a simultaneous internet broadcast on the Company's Web site at www.firstmarblehead.com, under Investors.

That call and the subsequent stock price could prove interesting.

[Rob]

Are You Scared?

This morning we see the Asian markets down in the -5% to -7% neighborhood and the DOW futures about 500 pts. below fair value. So ... are you scared? Many are.

The question in my mind is: is this the capitulation day? It may very well be. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if the day ends up with the markets on the up side. I'm sort of hearing CNBC in the background right now, and I thought I heard them say the Fed may knock 75 basis points off the funds rate. If that happens, then I'd be surprised if the market doesn't gain ground today.

We shall see.

[Rob]

. . . it has split 2/1 and has usually stayed in positive territory but overall only up 3.3% for him. Still waiting for the big move.

Ancient Chinese proverb say: "Patience is power; with time and patience the mulberry leaf becomes a silk gown."

[skiracer]

Rob,
I see you also like NE. My son has had it for 6 months, it has split 2/1 and has usually stayed in positive territory but overall only up 3.3% for him. Still waiting for the big move. It consistently ranks high fundamentally and technically. He bought 14 shares. With split and reinvesting dividends he now has 28.043 in his Roth. Wish Roth had been invented when I was his age.

--------------billyjoe

We never had kids so I wasn't able to do anything like what you have done for yours. He's a lucky kid to have your influence and guidance.

[billyjoe]

Rob,
I see you also like NE. My son has had it for 6 months, it has split 2/1 and has usually stayed in positive territory but overall only up 3.3% for him. Still waiting for the big move. It consistently ranks high fundamentally and technically. He bought 14 shares. With split and reinvesting dividends he now has 28.043 in his Roth. Wish Roth had been invented when I was his age.

--------------billyjoe

[Rob]

Another Update in the Wake of Market Weakness

Pretty lousy overall performance so far on that scan, but considering how awful the whole market's been over the past couple weeks, perhaps some “suckiness” is to be expected.

Great day in the mornin'! Look at what's happened to TSCM since the previous update on 12/30!

Hey! If you haven't thrown down on the amazing, mind-blowing Pick O' The Week contest yet, you should consider it. And even if you don't, you could at least follow it. Besides the stock picks and colorful charts, each day has little nuggets from the day's news and carefully selected photos of some very handsome persons of the fairer sex. For example: Paula Abdul, Gina Lollobrigida, an unknown, olive-skinned beauty, Julie London, Julia Roberts, Megan Fox and Victoria Beckham, Jenna-Louise Coleman, Penelope Cruz and another unknown beauty, and last but definitely not least, Sarah Mendly. Stunning. Just stunning.

[Rob]

IMCL - Gap Filled

For those of you TA enthusiasts out there who insist that gaps must be filled, I thought I'd inform you that IMCL's gap from Sep. 10-11 has now officially filled.

In my opinion, this puppy is cheeeeeeeap! If you don't want to hold it for the long term, fine. Buy it now at <38 and sell it at 44. Probably won't take all that long. It's selling cheaply now most likely due to foreseen weak earnings report .... but it will only be low because of costly legal settlements last quarter. Erbitux is threatening to take some of Avastin's market share in 1st-line metastatic colorectal cancer treatment (Do you even understand how HUGE that is?), and they will present positive lung data this Summer at ASCO in San Fran. Don't be fooled by the recent price weakness. Don't be a schmuck. Trade at your own risk, however.

[Rob]

Update on the 11/22/07 Screen

Will watch for a while and see what these do.

Symbol ... 11/22/2007 ... 12/28/2007 ... % Change
TSCM .......... 12.80 ........ 16.05 ...... 25.39
RIG .......... 121.78 ....... 146.02 ...... 19.90
PXP ........... 49.22 ........ 55.10 ...... 11.95
GKK ........... 21.76 ........ 23.64 ....... 8.64
MIR ........... 36.57 ........ 38.96 ....... 6.54
IMMR .......... 12.31 ........ 12.90 ....... 4.79
DST ........... 80.66 ........ 83.06 ....... 2.98
HLTH .......... 13.24 ........ 13.63 ....... 2.95
VCP ........... 29.31 ........ 29.97 ....... 2.25
VR ............ 25.14 ........ 25.63 ....... 1.95
SPIL ........... 8.92 ......... 9.03 ....... 1.23
GEOY .......... 32.82 ........ 33.02 ....... 0.61
MRH ........... 17.00 ........ 16.99 ...... -0.06
RLI ........... 57.14 ........ 55.83 ...... -2.29
TWLL .......... 12.24 ........ 10.58 ..... -13.56
FMD ........... 29.54 ........ 15.32 ..... -48.14
Average .................................... 1.57


So what's the deal with First Marblehead (FMD)? Here are two paragraphs from a Dec. 27 Motley Fool article:

First Marblehead sells student loans into the market for asset-backed securities (ABS), which has been rocked by loan defaults. The two largest sectors of the ABS market are home equity loans and collateralized debt obligations (CDOs) -- the very same types of assets causing severe damage to buyers like E*Trade (Nasdaq: ETFC), whose toxic ABS portfolio was the proximate cause of one of the most shareholder-value-destroying refinancings of a major company in recent memory.

Besides mortgages and CDOs, there are indications that defaults are also creeping up in credit cards, auto loans, and -- most germane to FMD shareholders -- student loans. Confidence in the bond ratings agencies is in tatters, and bond insurers' very solvency is being called into question. Amid these conditions, the ABS market has practically shut down.

[Rob]

2008 holiday schedule for the NYSE, NASDAQ and AMEX

2008 holiday schedule for the NYSE, NASDAQ and AMEX:

Tuesday, January 1 ...... New Year's Day
Monday, January 21 ...... Martin Luther King Jr.'s Birthday (Observed)
Monday, February 18 ..... Presidents' Day
Friday, March 21 ........ Good Friday
Monday, May 26 .......... Memorial Day
Friday, July 4 .......... Independence Day*
Monday, September 1 ..... Labor Day
Thursday, November 27 ... Thanksgiving Day*
Thursday, December 25 ... Christmas Day*

*The markets will close at 1:00 p.m. on Thursday, July 3, 2008; Friday, November 28, 2008; and Wednesday, December 24, 2008.

Don't make me send Ernie over there with a hockey stick to "persuade" you.

That's not Ernie, but I may be stopping by more often.