Rob's Lobs

[peanuts]

The Economic Confidence Model (Copyright Princeton Economic Institute 1997) 8.6 Year Global Business Cycle predicts the market will bottom on March 22, 2008. It has been right, to the exact DATE, many times before. Take a deep breath and run your fingers through your CA$H.

www.nowandfutures.com/buscycle.htm (especially see graph on page 4)

Riverbabe

I wonder what will help to open the eyes of the public to the extent of the power and generally stabile growth of the US economy over the past 100 years? I mean.... why are people burying their heads in the sand? BUY BUY BUY!!!!!!

[New-born baby]

I wonder what will help to open the eyes of the public to the extent of the power and generally stabile growth of the US economy over the past 100 years? I mean.... why are people burying their heads in the sand? BUY BUY BUY!!!!!!

It seems to me that we are in the process of shifting the economic center of the world from the USA to China. US companies have emptied every factory of its equipment and shipped it to China to avoid onerous taxes and health care costs. Been to Chicago lately? Have you seen those mile after mile of empty factories along the interstate? Have you read how that Social Security is currently spending more dough that it is taking in? How about that in just 4 more years we are going to have 2 people working for every 1 on Social Security?

None of this stuff was true in theUSA the last one hundred years. Britian's power was busted by the welfare system; how shall our economic power be any different?

[billyjoe]

New-born,
The return on money set aside for social security if we are to believe that it was set aside has got to be lousy. If you were to take the totals from the 1940's say until 1990 and compound it at 6% wouldn't there theoretically be enough $$ to last indefinitely? Take out a few trillion here and there for a couple useless wars and what is left?

-----------billyjoe

[New-born baby]

New-born,
The return on money set aside for social security if we are to believe that it was set aside has got to be lousy. If you were to take the totals from the 1940's say until 1990 and compound it at 6% wouldn't there theoretically be enough $$ to last indefinitely? Take out a few trillion here and there for a couple useless wars and what is left?

-----------billyjoe

Inflation.

[Rob]

IMCL seems to getting whacked today in sympathy with Genentech (DNA), though there's no reason I know of for this to happen that makes any sense. Could be a good buy opportunity. Trade at your own risk.

[stenzrob]

Rob, I must admit I don't usually read your thread. I'm just stopping by because of my position in RGEN, which got my attention by setting a new high recently. As it turns out, a very nice time to buy this would have been about the time of IMCL's last report. When the settlement was announced, RGEN took a dive because some folks had been expecting a much better result for RGEN. After IMCL's report, there seemed to be renewed interest in RGEN. Since I know you've been following IMCL, do you have any comments on the case and settlement with RGEN?
Thanks ... stenz

[billyjoe]

Rob,
GOOG 701. If you continued to hold I'm impressed. What about you, River?

------------billyjoe

[riverbabe]

Rob,
GOOG 701. If you continued to hold I'm impressed. What about you, River?

------------billyjoe

Still in, and it's my pick of the year.

[Rob]

. . . do you have any comments on the case and settlement with RGEN?

It was difficult to read and understand the published stories about the particulars of the case. Other than that, my only comment is: What a relief it's finally settled!

I believe Erbitux is a better drug than it has as yet been recognized to be.

[Rob]

Still holding 100% of my GOOG position. If ever there were another early-80s-Microsoft-type investment to hold for the long term, this surely appears to be it. (IMO)

[Rob]

Rob, I must admit I don't usually read your thread.

Don't make me send Ernie over there with a hockey stick to "persuade" you.

[stenzrob]

Don't make me send Ernie over there with a hockey stick to "persuade" you.

That's not Ernie, but I may be stopping by more often.

[Rob]

2008 holiday schedule for the NYSE, NASDAQ and AMEX

2008 holiday schedule for the NYSE, NASDAQ and AMEX:

Tuesday, January 1 ...... New Year's Day
Monday, January 21 ...... Martin Luther King Jr.'s Birthday (Observed)
Monday, February 18 ..... Presidents' Day
Friday, March 21 ........ Good Friday
Monday, May 26 .......... Memorial Day
Friday, July 4 .......... Independence Day*
Monday, September 1 ..... Labor Day
Thursday, November 27 ... Thanksgiving Day*
Thursday, December 25 ... Christmas Day*

*The markets will close at 1:00 p.m. on Thursday, July 3, 2008; Friday, November 28, 2008; and Wednesday, December 24, 2008.

[Rob]

Update on the 11/22/07 Screen

Will watch for a while and see what these do.

Symbol ... 11/22/2007 ... 12/28/2007 ... % Change
TSCM .......... 12.80 ........ 16.05 ...... 25.39
RIG .......... 121.78 ....... 146.02 ...... 19.90
PXP ........... 49.22 ........ 55.10 ...... 11.95
GKK ........... 21.76 ........ 23.64 ....... 8.64
MIR ........... 36.57 ........ 38.96 ....... 6.54
IMMR .......... 12.31 ........ 12.90 ....... 4.79
DST ........... 80.66 ........ 83.06 ....... 2.98
HLTH .......... 13.24 ........ 13.63 ....... 2.95
VCP ........... 29.31 ........ 29.97 ....... 2.25
VR ............ 25.14 ........ 25.63 ....... 1.95
SPIL ........... 8.92 ......... 9.03 ....... 1.23
GEOY .......... 32.82 ........ 33.02 ....... 0.61
MRH ........... 17.00 ........ 16.99 ...... -0.06
RLI ........... 57.14 ........ 55.83 ...... -2.29
TWLL .......... 12.24 ........ 10.58 ..... -13.56
FMD ........... 29.54 ........ 15.32 ..... -48.14
Average .................................... 1.57


So what's the deal with First Marblehead (FMD)? Here are two paragraphs from a Dec. 27 Motley Fool article:

First Marblehead sells student loans into the market for asset-backed securities (ABS), which has been rocked by loan defaults. The two largest sectors of the ABS market are home equity loans and collateralized debt obligations (CDOs) -- the very same types of assets causing severe damage to buyers like E*Trade (Nasdaq: ETFC), whose toxic ABS portfolio was the proximate cause of one of the most shareholder-value-destroying refinancings of a major company in recent memory.

Besides mortgages and CDOs, there are indications that defaults are also creeping up in credit cards, auto loans, and -- most germane to FMD shareholders -- student loans. Confidence in the bond ratings agencies is in tatters, and bond insurers' very solvency is being called into question. Amid these conditions, the ABS market has practically shut down.

[Rob]

IMCL - Gap Filled

For those of you TA enthusiasts out there who insist that gaps must be filled, I thought I'd inform you that IMCL's gap from Sep. 10-11 has now officially filled.

In my opinion, this puppy is cheeeeeeeap! If you don't want to hold it for the long term, fine. Buy it now at <38 and sell it at 44. Probably won't take all that long. It's selling cheaply now most likely due to foreseen weak earnings report .... but it will only be low because of costly legal settlements last quarter. Erbitux is threatening to take some of Avastin's market share in 1st-line metastatic colorectal cancer treatment (Do you even understand how HUGE that is?), and they will present positive lung data this Summer at ASCO in San Fran. Don't be fooled by the recent price weakness. Don't be a schmuck. Trade at your own risk, however.