How low will the indices go???

[Lyehopper]

Is everyone annoyed by the talking heads on CNBC saying how stocks are fundamentally undervalued as the market continues to spiral downward?

Maybe it's just me.

How low will the market P/E's go?

Last end of week's P/Es-

DJIA P/E Ratio 21.11

S&P 500 P/E Ratio 17.74

Peanuts, you're in the "bidnez" dude.... What's your take on basic steel right now? Inventories? Backlog? demand?

[Jim Smith]

I think it gets real ugly

Current year end targets: SPX 875 and Dow Jones 8250.....I think it's Katy bar the door time.....After the June fed meeting, I think we'll be sold off enough to get a 5% counter trend rally....won't last long and the next move will be waterfall style.

[peanuts]

Peanuts, you're in the "bidnez" dude.... What's your take on basic steel right now? Inventories? Backlog? demand?

In general, there is the expected slowdown compared to the beginning of the year. I do not know of any companies which are not producing as per projections. Backlogs are consistent for all products- nobody seems to more behind (or ahead) than others. It seems that the industry as a whole learned its lesson regarding inventory from 2005- future pricing, as long as demand has been projected correctly, should not be affected due to over or under supply of products. Looking forward, there are some grades of steels and types of products which will see stronger demand in the next year and others will see a reduced demand. Specialty grades and high alloys have probably slowed the most due to increases in precious metal prices (my personal opinion), and flat products (automobile grade) remain strong. Flat rolled products will do the best in the coming years. Exotic grades will always do better in strong economic times.

But, as far as valuation goes, there are some companies which are too expensive right now and deserve to see a big correction in price. AKS is one of them. In my opinion, it is terribly run. US Steel should buy them and straighten things out (why AKS has seen the recent p/s- the rumors out) MA activity has slowed recently, but the trend of consolidation of the industry continues. Companies are having a hard time justifying acquiring other companies at such high valuations today. This gives a nice long term value to most steel producers. MT will continue on its path to control at least 25% of the world's capacity. We will see large integrated players like MT, X, Severstal, and Thyssen Krupp to make large investments in Energy and Raw Materials- expanding the scope of integration. We might also see investments into transportation like railroads and overseas shipping, but that will be rare.

As a whole, and until 2010, I am VERY bullish on all steel producers, fabricators, and distributors. But, that's a little more than you asked for...

[lemonjello]

Funny. AKS looks like it's about to take a dive.

You think a steel company might wanna buy Marathon again? LOL

Anything like that should be a good indicator of a top in something.

But, as far as valuation goes, there are some companies which are too expensive right now and deserve to see a big correction in price. AKS is one of them. In my opinion, it is terribly run. US Steel should buy them and straighten things out (why AKS has seen the recent p/s- the rumors out) MA activity has slowed recently, but the trend of consolidation of the industry continues. Companies are having a hard time justifying acquiring other companies at such high valuations today. This gives a nice long term value to most steel producers. MT will continue on its path to control at least 25% of the world's capacity. We will see large integrated players like MT, X, Severstal, and Thyssen Krupp to make large investments in Energy and Raw Materials- expanding the scope of integration. We might also see investments into transportation like railroads and overseas shipping, but that will be rare.

As a whole, and until 2010, I am VERY bullish on all steel producers, fabricators, and distributors. But, that's a little more than you asked for...

[Websman]

I hate to say it, but I won't be suprised if the DOW goes below the 10,000 mark.

[Websman]

It was a rhetorical question Dave..... that's freakin'WHY!!!!jejejejeje

DO YOU HAVE TO
YELL!!!!

[Runner]

I think if we breach 1245 on the S&P we might see another selling program and will look to short into next bounce.

[Lyehopper]

DO YOU HAVE TO
YELL!!!!

KISS MYarse Websman !!!!jejejeje....hic!

[IIC]

You guys worry too much....Take a deep breath...It will be OK...No problem...Doug

[Lyehopper]

You guys worry too much....Take a deep breath...It will be OK...No problem...Doug

What does that mean?! I'm a bear now DEF.... I want the market to crash!

[IIC]

What does that mean?! I'm a bear now DEF.... I want the market to crash!

No problem...Let it crash...But it won't...Problem is now that nobody seems to know what's going on...I don't either...But no way we see a 3/00 or 10/87 deal IMO

[lemonjello]

wuh woh

Japan down hard, S&P futs down early this morning.

Could get a body slam in the US tomorrow.

[peanuts]

You guys worry too much....Take a deep breath...It will be OK...No problem...Doug

Doug, I'm turning purple.... can I breath yet?

[Lyehopper]

Doug, I'm turning purple.... can I breath yet?

LOL!!!!! WooooHooooo!!!!

Hey Peanuts! you didn't answer my steel questions DUDE!!!!

[peanuts]

LOL!!!!! WooooHooooo!!!!

Hey Peanuts! you didn't answer my steel questions DUDE!!!!

yes, I did... check the older messages