How low will the indices go???

[Jim Smith]

10500 on the dow, then a bounce

but the final low is in late Sept to early Oct....

[lemonjello]

Nothing up my sleeve

LOL.

Um, that sounds a little like a sales pitch. It's like calling a real estate broker and asking if the house prices are going up.

Seriously, are the boomers parents hiding their cash in the mattress only to be brought to light by the saavy, investor boomers? I'm guessing the boomers parents have their accounts at Merrill Lynch and the Ameritrade guys want the boomers to move the accounts to move to Ameritrade when they inherit them. Somebody moves one dollar from one pocket to the another pocket and they still have only one dollar. Is that right? How will this help the market again? Hope it does, but hoping there are better reasons.

Is that just your "feeling" or do you have some data or projections or something else to back it up? I'm just curious, because I based my prediction on several factors... earnings season, the holiday itself, some technical attributes, and I tried to predict general investor sentiment and then determine the best way that the big money would try to manipulate it.

From all accounts that I've read, and my own perception, as well as the perception of EVERY financial advisor in the Pittsburgh area... I think that the infusion of wealth to the baby boomers is going to fuel a long term bull market ending somewhere between 2010 to 2015. The largest gains are just about to be made as many of the baby boomers' parent's wealth is about to be transferred as they die off. I know this will affect many of the members here, and I feel sympathy for them, but these are the facts.

Western PA will see some of the largest transfers of wealth. The elderly population in this area is absolutely ENORMOUS!!!! It's like Florida here... I'm serious. I have an open resume on Monster.com and I continually get offers for inteviews from new and established financial advisors throughout the region. I went to 2 interviews for Ameriprise because I had the free time and I was going with the sole purpose and intent of learning as much as I could from them without committing to a job. The fact of the wealth transfer was brought up many times. The amount to be transferred over a 15 year period is close to 50 Trillion Dollars country-wide!!!! The big money is betting on the market over the next 10-15 years. They are hiring new people at crazy frequency and quantity. I don't know about you, but I think it is wise to follow the big money sentiment.

I am VERY bullish on American stocks for the next 10 to 15 years. The new money in the baby boomers' pockets will either go towards business profits as spending increases (medical care, travel, and computers), or into stocks either directly or through mutual funds and other group investments... The time of high liquidity is coming upon us and now is our opportunity to capitalize on it. Those people ahead of the curve will benefit the most. I have strong beliefs that big money will take the market to levels never seen before.


My opinions, I freely share
I think it's costly to be a bear

[Jim Smith]

The old folks of Allegheny County, PA

Peanuts, as soon as you said western PA, I figured you had to be talking about Allegheny County.....It's like the oldest county in the US....Folks just don't leave Pittsburgh, unless they just graduated college and need a job....Property taxes in Pittsburgh are third highest in the US.....you think the US has a big transfer? Try Japan!.....THose folks have tons of dough and its the reason I love Japan.....Tiffany could do gangbusters in Japan.....Pittsburgh is a tough place to live....The topography restricts road construction.....THere's always road reconstruction....Lived there 8 years and I say it's an obsolete city. The view of the city coming out of the Fort Pitt tunnel is one of the best city views anywhere.

[peanuts]

Peanuts, as soon as you said western PA, I figured you had to be talking about Allegheny County.....It's like the oldest county in the US....Folks just don't leave Pittsburgh, unless they just graduated college and need a job....Property taxes in Pittsburgh are third highest in the US.....you think the US has a big transfer? Try Japan!.....THose folks have tons of dough and its the reason I love Japan.....Tiffany could do gangbusters in Japan.....Pittsburgh is a tough place to live....The topography restricts road construction.....THere's always road reconstruction....Lived there 8 years and I say it's an obsolete city. The view of the city coming out of the Fort Pitt tunnel is one of the best city views anywhere.

Yup, everyone here is old, old, old. Many of them have seen the bad economic times of the 30's, and wars, and have worked hard all their lives. They're all money horders, they value cash and keep money hidden away, "just in case." They raised their kids to be frugal and improve their lives through hard work and committments to family. Western PA, especially Allegheny County, is rich in tradition and family roots run deep. Everyone is a Steelers fan and we all dispise, yet love, the Cleveland Browns and Cinncinnati Bengals. The city of Pittsburgh has been built on the Steel industry, banking, healthcare, and serves as an important hub of river, road, and rail transportation from the East to the Midwest. It has seen years of astronomical growth in business and huge losses of jobs in the steel mills. People here know good times and bad better than any other place in America.

You are correct that Allegheny County is one of the oldest counties in America. People love this area and don't want to leave. That is why this area is going to see a $$$HUGE$$$ transfer of wealth in the next 10 to 15 years. The old people who have stayed here, have been frugal, have saved substantially all their lives, and have deep feelings of family committment. The wealth they have accumulated over the years will go to the baby boomers in this same area, because, as you say it and I confirm it, "nobody leaves Pittsburgh." The thing is, is that their children, the baby boomers, are much like their parents- frugal savers that cherrish their families and this region. The money they receive will go back into investments, or it will go back into the regions economy and boost business profits.

Over the years, I have been reading articles regarding Western PA and the opportunities which it offers. I, for one, plan on staying in this area. I don't see it as obsolete... more like traditional with lots of room for growth. Regarding the roads: Pennsylvania has been rated the worst state to drive in by the truckers association (or whatever the call themselves) for so many consequetive years now, that it is a big joke here. Yeah, the roads are terrible compared to many other places. But I never have a problem getting from one place to the next. Property taxes may be high, but we have NO sales tax on clothing or food (unless prepared)

[Rob]

Off Topic Stuff About Pittsburgh, et al.

It's interesting to hear a couple people familiar with Pittsburgh (formerly Fort Duquense) reflect on what the place is like. I've never spent a lot of time there, but have just passed through once or twice. I can vouch for the horrible condition of the Pennsylvania roads. The last time I drove from here to Allentown, I swore that if I ever planned to drive through Pennsylvania again, I was going to get a rental car. I've been told that the roads there are that way due to a unique freeze-thaw cycle in the state. I suppose that's possible.

It's like the oldest county in the US....

I've seen that claim in numerous places. It always confuses me, because the area hadn't even begun to be settled until the late 1740s, and the county itself was created in 1788.

Sussex Co., Delaware is purported to have been created in 1631. From the USGenWeb James City County, VA Web page: "[James City] county grew from the 1607 Jamestown settlement to become one of the 'Four Ancient Boroughs,' and in 1634, one of the eight original 'shires' established by the Virginia General Assembly. Surry County was formed from James City County about 1652. Jamestown was the capitol of Virginia until the state house burned in 1698. Then the capitol was moved to Williamsburg."

Shoot, I stayed in a B&B in Middlsex Co., VA (created 1669) that was a home built in 1678!

Just a little background info. from a hopelessly incurable genealogy bug.

[peanuts]

It's like the oldest county in the US....

I've seen that claim in numerous places. It always confuses me, because the area hadn't even begun to be settled until the late 1740s, and the county itself was created in 1788.

Rob, I think he was referring to the age of the people in Allegheny County, not the date of establishment. Something like saying: "Florida is the oldest state" - meaning that there are a bunch of old folks there.


Pennsylavania has the worst roads,
it's an effect of the hots and colds

[Rob]

Rob, I think he was referring to the age of the people in Allegheny County, not the date of establishment.

Of course. That makes perfect sense! Please excuse my idiomatic myopia.

[peanuts]

... The view of the city coming out of the Fort Pitt tunnel is one of the best city views anywhere.

I couldn't find a shot of the view coming out of the Fort Pitt Tunnel, but I did find this:

The arch bridge on the right side of the picture is the Fort Pitt Bridge. The Fort Pitt Tunnel exits directly onto the bridge. As you are driving into downtown from the route 279 S (from the airport) you do not see any views of downtown from the expressway. The first view of downtown you get is as you exit the 1/2 mile long tunnel under Mount Washington, and the city is literally 100 yards across the river from you in full view. It really jumps out and smacks you in the face... but in a good way

This is the point where the Allegheny River (L) meets the Monongahela River (R) and forms the beginning of the Ohio River (out of view, but begins at the fountain). This picture was taken from the top of Mount Washington

little known fact: Pittsburgh has the Guiness record for having the zip code AND street with the most bars in/on it. It is called the Southside (pronounced in Pittsburghese "Saas-side" and the street is East Carson Street.



The drunks in town have pulsating livers
In the city known for the mighty three rivers

[Rob]

I couldn't find a shot of the view coming out of the Fort Pitt Tunnel . . .

Here's one. You have to scroll to the bottom of the page.

[peanuts]

The INDU and SPX looks like they want to run, but need volume support to continue this move.

The bear market that we've been having lately is not fighting back... yet!

Could we get a rally Tuesday, Sept 12, maybe? I expect the bears to fight back next week.

[New-born baby]

The INDU and SPX looks like they want to run, but need volume support to continue this move.

The bear market that we've been having lately is not fighting back... yet!

Could we get a rally Tuesday, Sept 12, maybe? I expect the bears to fight back next week.

"The beatings will continue until morale improves . . . . "
Stocks that rise on lower volume: bearish!
Indices that rise on lower volume: bearish!

When the volume returns next week, it will either be a huge rally, or else a huge bear staring us all in the face. What does the VIX say?

[Websman]

There's going to be some heavy resistance soon... I'm still being cautious.

[skiracer]

Everyone's talking about how low will the markets go and it doesn't look like they are heading down to me right now. 11464.15 isn't chopped meat and is alot closer to previous highs than previous lows right now. On a daily basis trade what you see and not what you think.

[Runner]

"The beatings will continue until morale improves . . . . "
Stocks that rise on lower volume: bearish!
Indices that rise on lower volume: bearish!

When the volume returns next week, it will either be a huge rally, or else a huge bear staring us all in the face. What does the VIX say?

NB, what is a VIX and or how well does it act as a market indicator. I like the TRIN myself for short term direction.

[Louetta]

Everyone's talking about how low will the markets go and it doesn't look like they are heading down to me right now. 11464.15 isn't chopped meat and is alot closer to previous highs than previous lows right now. On a daily basis trade what you see and not what you think.

I saw weakness in some of the things I owned today so I sold them. If I see strength early in September I'll buy. But I don't know...