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This is too much. I almost died when I read this.
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Louetta, I'd say they thoroughly covered the subject.
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Sox are losing to the Yanks 14-5 middle of the ninth. Mike Carp, a reserve outfielder, pitched the top of the ninth for the Sox, walking five but saving the bullpen. Time for beddy-bye.Comment
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Palcohol -The company that makes this is privately owned and they do not expect to go public. I was hoping to buy some of this - nuts!
Tim - Retired Problem SolverComment
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Mimo, Unless the govt. can get their hands on it , it's a dangerous product. Sometimes I mix an overly strong batch of lemonade with my powdered packets.
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Still more fallout from the release of the Donald Sterling tapes. The owner of the famous Bunny Ranch in Nevada has banned the basketball owner from the premises. Reportedly 20-25% of the whores are African American.Comment
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B,Originally posted by riverbabe View Post
Thanks for the walk down memory lane - some of the segments went by so quickly that I had to stop and think - WOW - I had forgotten so much about the little things we enjoyed while growing up.Tim - Retired Problem SolverComment
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I get an email from Bill Lussenheide periodically. Below is a list of his financial-related trivia. I found a few of these interesting and I hope you do too.
After the trivia, I pasted in his simple Trend Following System. There is a link to the results - which are pretty good. He does not reveal everything.
Bill Lussenheide -Registered Investment Advisor / President
Lussenheide Capital Management, Inc.
THE HIGHEST EVER – The S&P 500 closed at 1897 last Tuesday 5/13/14, its 10th all-time record close this year. The stock index set 45 record closes in 2013, the last on 12/31/13 on the final trading day of 2013. The S&P 500 consists of 500 stocks chosen for market size, liquidity and industry group representation. It is a market value weighted index with each stock’s weight in the index proportionate to its market value (source: BTN Research).
FLAT, THEN NOT FLAT – Over the 11-year period from the end of calendar year 1967 to the end of calendar year 1978, the value of the S&P 500 changed by less than 1 point (i.e., an index value of 96.47 on 12/31/67 to an index value of 96.11 on 12/31/7
. Over the subsequent 35 years (1979-2013), the S&P 500 index value grew 19-fold, gaining +12.0% annually on a total return basis (source: BTN Research).
BIG UP OR BIG DOWN – From 1970-2007 (i.e., 38 years), the S&P 500 either gained or lost at least 3% in a single trading day 98 times or just over 1% of trading days (i.e., measurement based upon the closing value of the index on consecutive trading days). During 2008-11, the S&P 500 gained or lost at least 3% in a single trading day 85 times or more than 8% of trading days. From 1/01/12 through Friday 5/16/14, the S&P 500 has not gained or lost at least 3% in any single trading day, a stretch of 596 trading days (source: BTN Research).
MANY YEARS – If the Federal Reserve was to stop its “print-and-purchase” program (aka “Quantitative Easing”) and not reinvest any of the fixed income proceeds as the bonds mature in the future (i.e., the $4 trillion of bonds that were purchased in the last 5 ½ years), it will still take the Fed 5-8 years to reduce its balance sheet to pre-recession levels (i.e., September 200, according to Senate testimony on 5/08/14 by Fed Chair Janet Yellen (source: Federal Reserve).
POPULAR GUY – 40,000 people attended the annual meeting of Warren Buffett’s corporation in Omaha, NE in early May 2014. Only 12 people attended Buffett’s annual corporate meeting in 1981 (source: BTN Research).
THE (UN)GOLDEN YEARS – The number of American homeowners at least age 75 with mortgage debt has more than doubled in the last 10 years, rising from 1 out of every 12 seniors (8.4%) to 1 out of every 5 seniors (21.2%). 30% of American homeowners at least age 65 have an outstanding mortgage, up from 22% a decade ago (source: Consumer Financial Protection Bureau).
NO MONTHLY MORTGAGE – 31% of the existing homes sold nationwide in calendar year 2013 were purchased for “all cash” (source: National Association of Realtors).
NOT INTERESTED – 54% of US physicians do not accept Medicaid patients, up +10 percentage points (i.e., from 44% to 54%) from 4 years ago (source: Merritt Hawkins & Associates).
NO CHANGE – Members of Congress (both Senators and House of Representative members) last received a pay hike in January 2009 when their annual salary was boosted to $174,000. Since then, Congress has voted 5 times to deny themselves an increase in pay (source: Congress).
SURPLUS – The US government reported a $107 billion surplus for April 2014, its first monthly surplus this calendar year. The $414 billion of tax receipts in April 2014 was the largest monthly total ever collected (source: Treasury Department).
MAY BE WORSE – The total of student loans outstanding reached $1.11 trillion as of 3/31/14, a +13% increase over the last year. Although the student loan delinquency rate is 11.5% (i.e., at least 90 days past due by amount), the calculation assumes that those loans currently in deferment (and not required to make any current repayment) have a 0% delinquency rate, suggesting the 11.5% rate is understated (source: NY Federal Reserve Bank).
BEST OF THE REST – The yield on the 10-year Treasury note was 2.57% on 8/05/11, the day that S&P announced a downgrade of the USA from AAA to AA+. Now 33 months later, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note closed last Friday (5/16/14) at 2.50% as global bond investors continue to buy US debt (source: Treasury Department).
BUT WHAT IF? – The average interest rate that Uncle Sam is paying on its interest bearing debt is 2.424% as of 4/30/14, half the cost the government was paying (4.838%) as of 12/31/07 (source: Treasury Department).
NOT TOGETHER – From 6/30/04 to 6/29/06, the Fed raised short-term interest rates from 1% to 5.25%, but over the same period the yield on the 10-year Treasury note rose only from 4.62% to 5.22% (source: Federal Reserve).
MAKE CONTACT – There have been just 2 MLB players in the last 50 years to have more home runs than strikeouts in a season. The most recent was Barry Bonds who had 45 HRs and just 41 Ks in 2004 (source: MLB).
$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
Trend Following Performance
A common misunderstanding is that a trend following system does not work or that it cannot be used successfully as an investment strategy. At Investment Warrior we believe only in mechanical, empirical and systematic approaches to trading. We agree that attempts to trade the market using emotional or subjective techniques are futile. However, as the table shows, systematic trend following can add significant returns to investment performance and reduce risk as a result of being out of the market up to 33% of the time.
Here we show the results of a very simple trend following system. This system uses the 100-day moving average as the trading trigger. If the index or fund moves above the 100-day average of its own price, then it would be considered to be a buy signal. If it falls below the 100-day average of its own price, then it would be considered a sell signal.
The systems used here at Investment Warrior and with our managed accounts at Lussenheide Capital Management Inc., uses this basic system, along with a mechanical, proprietary trading filter. As demonstrated below, mathematical non-subjective trend following is a valid strategy. Although our returns are comparable or better with those shown below, our system has more desirable characteristics, including fewer trades and less whipsaws amongst others. Our complete systems and components are kept private for proprietary and legal reasons. We have managed money for the public, in real time since 2002, and those results are available at Timertrac.com for a nominal fee.
100-Day Simple Moving Average System Trading Results
(Returns in Percentages)
Assumptions:
1. *Nasdaq Composite Index used from 1963 thru 2011. Nasdaq100/QQQ used from 2012 forward.
2. Same-DayTrading
3.Commercial Paper Rates are used to simulate Money Market Yields
4. Advisory Management Fees are neglected.
5. Fund Expenses are neglected for the NASDAQ data thru 2011,but are included in data from 2012 forward for the Nasdaq100/QQQ
6. Past performance no guarantee of future results.
7. Data source/ verification is the financial database of Ultra Financial Systems Inc., Breckinridge Colorado thru 2011. Data for Nasdaq 100/QQQ for 2012 forward is ETFReplay.com
8.All information sources are completely independent of LCM Inc.Tim - Retired Problem SolverComment
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24/7 Falcon cam at Canton, OH
Below is a link to the Canton peregrine falcons "Falcon-cam".The falcons were born a few weeks ago, on balcony ledge, about 12 stories up in downtown Canton, OH. There are 2 males and a female.
The Ohio Division of Wildlife has maintained a nest at the Canton Club since 1997. Perhaps 70+ falcon chicks have been hatched there.
Their white coat is a bit "splotchy" now as they lose their white down. Once the white down is gone, they will be gone too, probably within the next few weeks. They are about 3 1/2 weeks old now.
Tim - Retired Problem SolverComment
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All 3 and mom are eating right now - 4:08 PM ET - what a sightOriginally posted by mimo_100 View PostTim - Retired Problem SolverComment
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Mimo, That's neat. Reminds me several years ago of a baby turkey buzzard in our old barn approx. 1860 that hasn't been actively used for 50 years although my nephew has reroofed it and kept it decent. The buzzard was pure white, about the size of a chicken, and made a noise right out of a horror movie. Maybe it was scared since its parents were out. Not many have seen a little buzzard. Our local newspaper wasn't interested either.
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Too bad no one interested - I would love to have seen it!Originally posted by billyjoe View Post
One of the falcons is getting ready to fly right now!Tim - Retired Problem SolverComment
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Just ran out of black ink. Will trade one pint of my blood. http://andrewgelman.com/2007/08/03/relative_prices/
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I have 22 consecutive profitable trades of 15% or better. How is this possible? Every day there are hundreds of stocks setting new highs, no matter what happens in the overall market. Many of these stocks are still at very reasonable valuations. Afraid of buying stocks at their highs? Think of it this way: a new high is really a future floor for companies with solid financial underpinnings. Quantitative momentum modeling makes it easy to identify stocks that can continue this upward momentum trend. Why does this happen? It's really very simple..ask me about what investors and cows have in common. I am $$$ MR. MARKET $$$. I AM HUGE!!! Bring me your finest meats and cheeses. You can join in on the fun. Register for free and you'll be able to post messages on this forum and also receive emails when $$$ MR. MARKET $$$ makes his own trades. ($$$MR. MARKET$$$ is a proprietary investor and does not provide individual financial advice. The stocks mentioned on this forum do not represent individual buy or sell recommendations and should not be viewed as such. Individual investors should consider speaking with a professional investment adviser before making any investment decisions.)
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