Peanut's Potent Plethora of Profit

[peanuts]

earnings addition

Here's my top 5 as of Aug 5, 2006:

SPSX chart, yahoo key stats today's price: $31.78

NPK chart, yahoo key stats today's price: $51.64

VVI chart, yahoo key stats today's price: $33.42

GMRK chart, yahoo key stats today's price: $31.35

LOGC chart, yahoo key stats today's price: $2.15

Other mentionables:

USLM
ODP
TWLL
CPX
SWSI
DK

new addition today: Delek, DK

[peanuts]

last week's results

IBD 100:
TXU $65.98

CANSLIM:
CACB $34.77

Major Indices move last week: DOW: -1.36%, NAZ: -1.31%, S&P500: -0.99%

TICKER, $beginning price, $ending price, 1 week % return (positive or negative)

IBD 100:
* TXU, 65.98, 64.21, -2.68%

CANSLIM:
CACB, 34.77, 35.32, 1.58%

* I made a mistake last week that I did not catch until doing this screen this week. TXU was not supposed to be part of this list. I did something in the screen backwards last week (damned dyslexia) and issued incorrect screen results. The stocks which should have appeared as meeting the criteria for last week were HOC, and ALJ- gaining 1.44% and 13.25% respectively. Sorry for my mistake.

Not spending too much time above last week's high, all major indices fell on lower volume for the week. Resistance levels are still intact and support seems far away. Some number crunching:

DOW- recent high: 11670.19 May 15, recent low: 10683.32 July 17 (8.5% from high), currently 4.99% from the high and 2.23% from the low

NASDAQ- recent high: 2378.32 April 17, recent low: 2012.78 July 17 (15.37% from high), currently 13.48% from the high and 2.23% from the low

S&P 500- recent high: 1326.70 May 8, recent low: 1219.29 June 12 (8.1% from high), currently 4.52% from the high and 3.89% from the low

The short term bear market seems to be fading with volume, but it is still alive. When volume picks up, market direction will be determined. The FED's pause of consequetive rate hikes may be an indication to an economic slowdown. If this is the case, the NASDAQ may be currently showing negative leadership in a bear market, as it has lost the most of all all the indices. The NASDAQ has also historically given a good indication of where the entire market is heading. But, it is also more volatile and this may just be a cycle of the index and not an indicator of the market.

[peanuts]

8/11 screen results

the IBD weekly screen

IBD 100:
WNR $24.58
CTCM $23.45

CANSLIM:
CACB $35.32
BWP $27.19

[jiesen]

My submission

Though my name here is peanuts, I don't like the avatar I currently have.

I am taking submissions of Mr. Market members of a new avatar. Please post your pictures here, and I will choose one of them for my new avatar.

Have fun

Sorry, dude, but I can't resist:



Bwhahahahhahahahahaaaaaaaaa!!!!

[IIC]

I like the Planters Peanuts Guy myself:

http://images.google.com/images?q=planters+peanuts&ie=ISO-8859-1&hl=en&btnG=Search+Images

[JohnHenry]

new addition today: Delek, DK

Hi Peanuts

I was reading about DK and was going to ask about it here. I like DK but I'm still thinking if I should keep ALJ for POTW. What do you think?

[peanuts]

Hi Peanuts

I was reading about DK and was going to ask about it here. I like DK but I'm still thinking if I should keep ALJ for POTW. What do you think?

I don't know about the 1 week returns, but both should have medium term gains. ALJ stock has exposure to more people than DK because of recent weeks of it being on IBD, so it may get more action, but DK has solid growth past present and what looks to be a rosy future. I also like DK because they have a full petroleum revenue stream (except wells, but I may be wrong).

I think that there will be other stocks that make better gains this week than ALJ or DK. I am looking at infrastructure plays... lime, cement, heavy equipment, large contractors, galvanizers... Some ideas for POTW:

SGR, AZZ, NGA, JLG, IR, USLM, RMX, MVCO, CAT

[peanuts]

Does price matter?

When considering buying or shorting a stock, do you consider the raw price of the stock as factor in deciding whether you want to take action? Are there further considerations that you use? Price relative to: assets, earnings, earnings growth, debt, peers (and their relative ratios), past price highs or lows, market cap, # of shares outstanding, or revenues? Do these factors mean anything to you, or is it just price? If you look at all of these ratios, which ones are rated the most important to you? If you had to rate them, what would their ranking be, and what weight would you put on each when making your decision?

Thanks for your participation. I think this will be a great learning experience.

[peanuts]

Sorry, dude, but I can't resist:



Bwhahahahhahahahahaaaaaaaaa!!!!

Is that Socrates? Look at his peanuts! hehehe

[peanuts]

Thanks for your participation. I think this will be a great learning experience.

Today may go down in history as the very first day that I don't learn something new.

[skiracer]

When considering buying or shorting a stock, do you consider the raw price of the stock as factor in deciding whether you want to take action? Are there further considerations that you use? Price relative to: assets, earnings, earnings growth, debt, peers (and their relative ratios), past price highs or lows, market cap, # of shares outstanding, or revenues? Do these factors mean anything to you, or is it just price? If you look at all of these ratios, which ones are rated the most important to you? If you had to rate them, what would their ranking be, and what weight would you put on each when making your decision?

Thanks for your participation. I think this will be a great learning experience.

When I enter a position for a swing trade of 2/3 to 7/10 days it's always the chart that brings me to the trade. There are several specifics or patterns that I look for to setup and the fundamental end of it doesn't really matter. If some of the fundamentals earnings or sales which drive earnings, happen to be strong at my entry then I'm getting more bang for the buck so to speak an hopefully those strong or strengthening fundamentals will bring more investors as opposed to momentum or traditional chartists into the stock. But the charts don't lie and finding a stock at the right time in its technical cycle is the key to my swing trades.
Of late I have been spending some time looking for stocks that are strengthing fundamentally and are experiencing strong sales and earnings but which are in the early stages of their development or have been beaten down and are now in the early stages of strengthing again and being driven by increasing sales and earnings.
I believe on the fundamental end it has to start with great existing products or new products which will drive sales which in turn drives earnings. I've been taking a few positions, early on, in stocks which I feel need more time than the length of my swing trade parameters to mature into what greater sales and earnings will eventually provide. This means excersising more patience waiting for the desired outcome.

[peanuts]

When I enter a position for a swing trade of 2/3 to 7/10 days it's always the chart that brings me to the trade. There are several specifics or patterns that I look for to setup and the fundamental end of it doesn't really matter. If some of the fundamentals earnings or sales which drive earnings, happen to be strong at my entry then I'm getting more bang for the buck so to speak an hopefully those strong or strengthening fundamentals will bring more investors as opposed to momentum or traditional chartists into the stock. But the charts don't lie and finding a stock at the right time in its technical cycle is the key to my swing trades.

What kinds of patterns? Do you have graphical examples of a buy trigger and a short/sell trigger? By "getting more bang for your buck," do you mean that there is more quality to the stock? Do you take greater risk with stocks that don't have strong or strengthening fundamental characteristics? How accurate are the triggers?

Of late I have been spending some time looking for stocks that are strengthing fundamentally and are experiencing strong sales and earnings but which are in the early stages of their development or have been beaten down and are now in the early stages of strengthing again and being driven by increasing sales and earnings.

I am tracking (and looking for more) stocks that have been increasing their earnings by over 30%, and meet a few more criteria. It's THIS post. I'd like to know what stocks you have in mind. I have a few more that didn't meet all of my criteria, so I might also have some ideas for you.

I believe on the fundamental end it has to start with great existing products or new products which will drive sales which in turn drives earnings. I've been taking a few positions, early on, in stocks which I feel need more time than the length of my swing trade parameters to mature into what greater sales and earnings will eventually provide. This means excersising more patience waiting for the desired outcome.

What do you think about HDTV? From what I understand, it is mostly an American thing (not sure of Canada and Japan). Once the world starts to use HDTV technology, the small companies today will be much bigger by then, or at least have begun to increase sales. An investment today will take a lot of patience, but the end result may be $$HUGE$$.

[skiracer]

What kinds of patterns? Do you have graphical examples of a buy trigger and a short/sell trigger? By "getting more bang for your buck," do you mean that there is more quality to the stock? Do you take greater risk with stocks that don't have strong or strengthening fundamental characteristics? How accurate are the triggers?



I am tracking (and looking for more) stocks that have been increasing their earnings by over 30%, and meet a few more criteria. It's THIS post. I'd like to know what stocks you have in mind. I have a few more that didn't meet all of my criteria, so I might also have some ideas for you.

I look for stocks that have been creating a base and have bottomed which are beginning to turn up creating the right side of their cup coming off that bottom. I like using EW principles for finding stocks at specific wave points for either short or long swing trades of short duration. Spike's fuzzy "c" wave pattern as an example. Other examples would be any long moves up in a 1st, 3rd, or 5th wave pattern. These provide a decent move up for a long play. I don't rely on the 2nd or 4th waves for shorts as they don't provide the length or duration that I am looking for in a move. I also look for ascending triangle and symetrical triangle patterns for long plays. I like bear flag patterns for plays to the short side. Breaking resistance or support at ema 20 and 50 and 200 ma's are some other setups that I like and can be played to either the long or short side. I use the RAFF Regression Channels alot. I've found that when they signal a channel long or short it usually can be a very reliable signal and tool.
If a stock happens to have a great eps report and the momentum from that carries it into an uptrend and the chart is giving me a clear signal then I consider that more "bang for my buck". Not only is the chart giving me a signal but the stock is fundamentally strong along with the chart. That could be interpreted as more quality in the stock.
I very seldom take a position where there is high risk vs reward. If the edge isn't in my favor or the reward vs the risk isn't higher or in my favor I don't consider the play. I won't say I never take on some high risk for a possible greater reward but seldom. HSOA is an example of a higher risk play I'm in right now but I bought in low after weighing all the considerations. I very seldom let the play go lower than 7% from my entry without exiting the trade.
Another example of a position I am still holding is BVX. I took the position based more on fundamentals than the technical side as per my earlier post. I see something there fundamentally in product line, increasing sales, and increasing earnings which I feel is worth holding for the intermediate to the longer term. Right now the position is down .81, or almost 11%, from my entry of $7.51 which is more than my normal 7% loss point. It was up to $9.51. It was my intention to hold for the longer term while giving the stock some room to mature. I still like the position and will continue holding until I see a complete failure in the wind which I don't feel right now.
How accurate are my triggers? I'm up almost 40% to date this year not including what happens with HSOA after todays report. If you're asking if I have a plan which includes a trigger for entry, target, and stop losses the answer is yes. Every trade I make has a built in plan including all of those three elements. That should be a given for everyone doing this and for any type of trading.
I usually quickly glance over every stock anyone puts up here including yours in the hope that I just might find something worthwhile. You never know. I also subscribe to a service which I have mentioned here on a number of occassions which provides me with a number of great setups weekly and that I have been very successful with over the past 2 1/2 years.

[peanuts]

lots of questions for you.

I look for stocks that have been creating a base and have bottomed which are beginning to turn up creating the right side of their cup coming off that bottom. I like using EW principles for finding stocks at specific wave points for either short or long swing trades of short duration. Spike's fuzzy "c" wave pattern as an example. Other examples would be any long moves up in a 1st, 3rd, or 5th wave pattern. These provide a decent move up for a long play. I don't rely on the 2nd or 4th waves for shorts as they don't provide the length or duration that I am looking for in a move.

Can you give some specific examples, such as charts, where these wave signals are shown? Graphical examples work best for dummies, like me.

I'm not sure how you can determine whether a stock is making the right side of a cup or not. Is there an indicator that you use which tells you which stocks are going to finish a cup formation? I have found stocks that could have made a cup, but continued down, instead. How can you tell between the two? Usually, I look for cups that are already made, and play the stock as if the handle needs to be formed, if that formation fails, then I know it is not a cup and handle. I try to play the breakout, not the middle of the formation, but I see the hugeness in profit potential there. I just want to know if there are some good indicators that I can use to front-run a cup and handle.

I also look for ascending triangle and symetrical triangle patterns for long plays. I like bear flag patterns for plays to the short side.

How big are these moves? Do you look at yearly, 6 months, 1 month, or daily charts to find these patterns? Are there any parameters which need to be met so that these patterns are easily distinguished?

Breaking resistance or support at ema 20 and 50 and 200 ma's are some other setups that I like and can be played to either the long or short side.

What are the typical moves / timeframes for this type of trading? Do you need to create your position prior to the crossover, intraday, or after-the-fact?

I use the RAFF Regression Channels alot. I've found that when they signal a channel long or short it usually can be a very reliable signal and tool.

I am not familiar with this. Do you have a link for this RAFF?

I very seldom take a position where there is high risk vs reward. If the edge isn't in my favor or the reward vs the risk isn't higher or in my favor I don't consider the play. I won't say I never take on some high risk for a possible greater reward but seldom. HSOA is an example of a higher risk play I'm in right now but I bought in low after weighing all the considerations. I very seldom let the play go lower than 7% from my entry without exiting the trade.

Well, it is good that you try to dodge the risky ones, but what I was getting at is whether you consider good fundamental characteristics as any measure of risk? Would you say that making a trade in a company that consistently loses money is just as risky as making the same trade in a company that makes money, given identical technical setups?

How accurate are my triggers? I'm up almost 40% to date this year not including what happens with HSOA after todays report. If you're asking if I have a plan which includes a trigger for entry, target, and stop losses the answer is yes. Every trade I make has a built in plan including all of those three elements. That should be a given for everyone doing this and for any type of trading.

To be up 40% this year is pretty good. I am not up that much yet, but I am approaching that level. What I meant, however, was what kind of accuracy do the triggers give you? What I'm looking for here, is something like this: If you have an X number of set of conditions that, when met, are going to give you a YY% accuracy for a trade in that stock. So, for example, when 6 conditions are met, your trigger goes off, you buy ABC stock, and ABC stock has a 95% chance of going your way. After that, I assume that you then set profit targets, right? What is your accuracy rating?

[skiracer]

I'll give you a better reply and some other examples later on today. One fairly good example of what I mean by catching a stock as it begins to make the right side of it's cup is the daily chart on HSOA right now. See my reply to Spike's post on the POTW thread. I don't plug in triggers specifically. I just develope a watchlist from my scans and keep an eye on a selected group of stocks. As they approach what I look for I may or may not make the play. Of course I always have a targetted entry price in mind along with everything else. I hate to run out on you at this point but got to get going to the jobsites and get things running. I'll be happy to explain everything I do and how I go about it later on today or for as long as you want to continue this dialogue. It seems that I'm the only one that thought your original post on this subject matter was worth responding to. I think it's a good topic and subject worth discussing especially if others were to offer their feelings.



How big are these moves? Do you look at yearly, 6 months, 1 month, or daily charts to find these patterns? Are there any parameters which need to be met so that these patterns are easily distinguished?



What are the typical moves / timeframes for this type of trading? Do you need to create your position prior to the crossover, intraday, or after-the-fact?



I am not familiar with this. Do you have a link for this RAFF?



Well, it is good that you try to dodge the risky ones, but what I was getting at is whether you consider good fundamental characteristics as any measure of risk? Would you say that making a trade in a company that consistently loses money is just as risky as making the same trade in a company that makes money, given identical technical setups?



To be up 40% this year is pretty good. I am not up that much yet, but I am approaching that level. What I meant, however, was what kind of accuracy do the triggers give you? What I'm looking for here, is something like this: If you have an X number of set of conditions that, when met, are going to give you a YY% accuracy for a trade in that stock. So, for example, when 6 conditions are met, your trigger goes off, you buy ABC stock, and ABC stock has a 95% chance of going your way. After that, I assume that you then set profit targets, right? What is your accuracy rating?[/quote]