Index PREDICTIONS -

[lemonjello]

Bull Trap?

Given the recent little run, just wondering what the chartists on the board thought of the NDX and SPX here?

My take -

NDX run is almost done should roll over around near 1585 or sooner. Seriously, how many days can the NDX gap up?

SPX looks stronger and could run up to 1325-1330 before rolling over.

At this point there doesn't seem to be much reason for the market to continue up even given a soft landing. GDP is already dropping.

Good luck all.

[peanuts]

NASDAQ prediction

here's my predictive chart:

What do you think of this being a possibility?

[lemonjello]

Wow, where do you get those charts that show the future price movements?

That would save a lot of work.

Actually, seems like a pretty good possibility IMO.

here's my predictive chart:

What do you think of this being a possibility?

[lemonjello]

Ok. I'm declaring victory on this one.

I AM GIGANTIC!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Bull Trap?

My take -

NDX run is almost done should roll over around near 1585 or sooner.

Good luck all.

[peanuts]

Wow, where do you get those charts that show the future price movements?

That would save a lot of work.

Actually, seems like a pretty good possibility IMO.

Just give Doug some pizza and pictures of Jessica Alba. He'll let you borrow his crystal ball.

[Rob]

Just give Doug some pizza and pictures of Jessica Alba.

White asparagus.

[peanuts]

White asparagus.

Make that pizza and pictures of white asparagus

[New-born baby]

Chart

Peanuts,
I want to comment on your chart. I don't think you had the correct neckline.
Dow Theory says that an inverted head and shoulders requires that the head be lower than both shoulders. Look at my chart below.

I think what we have had this week is the "Max Pain" rally. Options expiration is tomorrow, and I expect the market will be down some (let's say, down 20 points on the Dow).

[lemonjello]

I wouldn't rule out the possibility that the Sept - Oct downside could be a lot more scary and go way below the July lows on the Naz at least, maybe the big caps will hold up.

Wow, where do you get those charts that show the future price movements?

That would save a lot of work.

Actually, seems like a pretty good possibility IMO.

here's my predictive chart:

What do you think of this being a possibility?

[New-born baby]

I wouldn't rule out the possibility that the Sept - Oct downside could be a lot more scary and go way below the July lows on the Naz at least, maybe the big caps will hold up.

Well, you are not alone in that thought . . . .

http://www.stocktiming.com/Thursday-DailyMarketUpdate.htm

[peanuts]

Peanuts,
I want to comment on your chart. I don't think you had the correct neckline.
Dow Theory says that an inverted head and shoulders requires that the head be lower than both shoulders. Look at my chart below.

I think what we have had this week is the "Max Pain" rally. Options expiration is tomorrow, and I expect the market will be down some (let's say, down 20 points on the Dow).

NBB, I have been looking for a long time, and now I regret not bookmarking the page, and having a bad memory... Not too long ago I read an article explaining all the different ways to interpret the inverted SHS pattern. I think, actually, the link was given to me somewhere in this forum. Anyway, there was a part to the article which explained a SHS pattern the way I presented it in my chart. It was a SHS pattern on a descending trend line and the chart of COMPQ reminded me of the article. Honestly, I'm not considering using the pattern to predict a long or short at anytime soon because I just don't know enough about it. I trust that your analysis is better than mine. You have a lot more experience with it (my asssumption) than I do, so I'll take your word for it.

What do you think of my crystal ball reading abilities?

Thanks Doug... I'll get that poster of white asparagus framed as soon as I have the time.

[New-born baby]

Elvis

Peanuts,
That formation must be like Elvis, the Lockness Monster, and Big Foot: people claim to have seen it from time to time, but no documented evidence that they are still alive. Really, I haven't seen such an article. BUT, there is such a thing as a falling wedge, and here are other reversal patterns to watch for:

http://chart-patterns.netfirms.com/

http://chart-patterns.netfirms.com/fallingwedge.htm

[peanuts]

Well, you are not alone in that thought . . . .
http://www.stocktiming.com/Thursday-...rketUpdate.htm

I thought that link sucked. Nothing against you, NBB, but their analysis was reactive to the market, not proactive. If this is going to be a big rally, then the russell 2000 should have jumped prior to this little run we are having. The fact that large caps are taking the lead is because there are more option chains to them. When we get a really nice, big and sustainable rally, the russell 2000 will lead.

That is a bold statement, but I don't see anything that is screaming at me to buy. Maybe I'm just not good enough, or maybe I'm a little brainwashed into trusting the past to predict the future... who knows, but my gut says that this rally has underlying weakness that has yet to rear its head.

[lemonjello]

SPX 1302 and still moving up

Hey, this stock stuff doesn't seem so hard.

Bull Trap?

SPX looks stronger and could run up to 1325-1330 before rolling over.

Good luck all.

[lemonjello]

After looking at the $NDX again. I can see where it might retrace back to the mid 1500s and then attempt a H&S back to the low 1700s in Sept.

After mid Sept I wouldn't trust anything to hold up into Oct.