Index PREDICTIONS -

[lemonjello]

Early morning futures - NAZ dropping.

[lemonjello]

Let the beatings begin!

SPX still on track to 1325-1330 area.

NDX made the retrace to 1550 and could make another attempt to break out of an inverted H&S next week.

The big money comes back to the trading desks next week after spending August thinking up ways to screw the suckers, er, retail investors. They were phoning in instructions to their 3rd string monkey bots to keep the NDX moving up slowly last week - low volume = easily manipulated - and they complied; moving the NDX up to resistance.

What could be their evil plan to take your money? Next week is 4 trading days - probably also low volume - when they have the opportunity to start the final set up. The SPX - not so easily manipulated - could continue its advance to 1325-30 resistance. This will provide reassurance to the little money if the NDX breaks out above the 1590 area. As the little money piles into the NDX on a breakout, it could go as high as the 1627 or 1700 resistance levels maybe on a quick spike. After the break out, which the big money has calculated on their supercomputers to pull in the optimum number of suckers, the big money starts to sell/short, driving the NDX back down breaking support levels as they go.

The little money will hang on too long as usual, caught in the trap. The beatings will then continue until moral improves a lot further down and months later after a large transfer of shekels from the pockets of the little money. Yacht and ferrari salesmen in the tri-state area will experience a mini sales boom as the former little money is spent on conspicuous consumption.

After looking at the $NDX again. I can see where it might retrace back to the mid 1500s and then attempt a H&S back to the low 1700s in Sept.

After mid Sept I wouldn't trust anything to hold up into Oct.

[lemonjello]

The thick plottens

I say today qualified as a sort of spike as the NDX broke to a new Sept high. Maybe more to go into expiration. This is getting interesting...

SPX still on track to 1325-1330 area.

NDX made the retrace to 1550 and could make another attempt to break out of an inverted H&S next week.

The big money comes back to the trading desks next week after spending August thinking up ways to screw the suckers, er, retail investors. They were phoning in instructions to their 3rd string monkey bots to keep the NDX moving up slowly last week - low volume = easily manipulated - and they complied; moving the NDX up to resistance.

What could be their evil plan to take your money? Next week is 4 trading days - probably also low volume - when they have the opportunity to start the final set up. The SPX - not so easily manipulated - could continue its advance to 1325-30 resistance. This will provide reassurance to the little money if the NDX breaks out above the 1590 area. As the little money piles into the NDX on a breakout, it could go as high as the 1627 or 1700 resistance levels maybe on a quick spike. After the break out, which the big money has calculated on their supercomputers to pull in the optimum number of suckers, the big money starts to sell/short, driving the NDX back down breaking support levels as they go.

The little money will hang on too long as usual, caught in the trap. The beatings will then continue until moral improves a lot further down and months later after a large transfer of shekels from the pockets of the little money. Yacht and ferrari salesmen in the tri-state area will experience a mini sales boom as the former little money is spent on conspicuous consumption.

[lemonjello]

Slowly I turned ... step by step ... inch by inch ...

SPX peaked at 1324.65 today. May high 1326.7. Almost done.

NDX peaked at 1645.6 today. Still not quite to the May highs - low 1700s.

There appears to be some momentum left in the NDX - not quite done yet.

Wouldn't be suprised to see a spike up next week to pull the last suckers into the Bull Trap.

Who's writing this script anyways?

[lemonjello]

Looks like they're going for it. Since this is window dressing week, it could all be wrapped up by Friday.

SPX holding steady at May highs.
NDX strong move today.

Just a little more to suck in the Bulls and then BAM!.

[peanuts]

I thought that link sucked. Nothing against you, NBB, but their analysis was reactive to the market, not proactive. If this is going to be a big rally, then the russell 2000 should have jumped prior to this little run we are having. The fact that large caps are taking the lead is because there are more option chains to them. When we get a really nice, big and sustainable rally, the russell 2000 will lead.

That is a bold statement, but I don't see anything that is screaming at me to buy. Maybe I'm just not good enough, or maybe I'm a little brainwashed into trusting the past to predict the future... who knows, but my gut says that this rally has underlying weakness that has yet to rear its head.

I was WRONG WRONG WRONG WRONG WRONG WRONG WRONG WRONG WRONG WRONG WRONG WRONG!!!!!

NBB, I've changed my opinion of that analysis... thanks for sharing it!

[peanuts]

Nasdaq???

Any theories why the NASDAQ is lagging behind the other indices?

This is not typical... Is there going to be another huge tech rally, soon?

[lemonjello]

Dow Jones breaks to ALL TIME HIGHS! Zzzzzzz...

DJX close 117.3 breaks out above its May high 116.7. Everybody PAH-TAY!

NDX close 1640 after hitting 1666 at the end of window dressing week. Looks like it is rolling over here, may not get to 1700s of May.

SPX close 1340 broken out above May highs of 1327. Not a big spike but oh well.

People are changing sentiment now. The Dow has made new Super Good Happy Time highs. Would be nice to see more people partying like it was 1999 and buying in. Feels almost like it is just floating up on short covering.

The market rally is narrowing with just a few big caps running up the indexes - Dow - and the rest of the market dragging - Naz, Russell. Good for TV, bad for "investors". Looks like it won't end with a bang but a whimper.

Lemonjello - waiting for wheels to fall off.

Any theories why the NASDAQ is lagging behind the other indices?

This is not typical... Is there going to be another huge tech rally, soon?

[lemonjello]

Was that a spike?

Booyah! Buy Buy Buy.

[AaronR]

Considering buying QQQQ puts. Anybody ever look over rgemonitor.com?

[IIC]

Considering buying QQQQ puts. Anybody ever look over rgemonitor.com?

First of all welcome...Second of all, from simply reading the headlines on that site it looks like an Eternal Bear's site...However, I bookmarked it and will look at it over the weekend...Best, Doug(IIC)

[lemonjello]

The Naz is struggling but I wouldn't short it while the other indexes are still pushing up. If Q's can get thru the 41.5 area it can go to 43 next.

Have to have time for all the talking heads to go bullish and the home gamers to move their 401k's into Dow funds. <doing the cabbage patch> PAHTY!

Since the terrists like to stage attacks before elections the sentiment could change anytime if they try to discredit the current Admin before November decisions (although the Republicans are doing a pretty good job themselves).

Considering buying QQQQ puts. Anybody ever look over rgemonitor.com?

[AaronR]

Narrow based rallies like this one during an election year are sucker's rallies.

[lemonjello]

Strange days, indeed

Here's something interesting to watch - US T notes and bonds have been running up with stock indexes since July. Friday they took a hit after spiking in Sept. (well, spiking for T notes). It looks like they've topped out the run to me and the rats are not just jumping , but catapulting off the ship. Very strange. Could be temporary but moving the bond/note market is serious money.

Also, Joe Batapaglia, Fox news perma-bull talking head, sounded downbeat this week. He is NEVER downbeat. This guy was calling for a bull market all the way thru the late 90's into 2000 and 2001. I'd guess he was violating Fox policy by not pounding the table for the bull. Not sure what to make of that.

BTW, I record Fox News market block every Saturday just to get Jimmy Rogers. He's amazing IMO. He'll say something very quietly off the cuff and all the rest of the panel will laugh. Then months later you'll find he was exactly correct and probably made $millions$ off the trade while the other people on the panel were trying to figure out where CSCO was going (except for Ben Stein of course). I still remember his call for the bottom on sugar many moons ago over multiple shows. Nobody on the panel paid any attention. Virtually free advice from the guy that ran Soros' Quantum fund to the moon.

[Gwhiz]

Since the terrists like to stage attacks before elections the sentiment could change anytime if they try to discredit the current Admin before November decisions (although the Republicans are doing a pretty good job themselves).

Not to be an a**hole but in since 9/11 Osama has mostly tried to keep the republicans in power, for example in the 2004 presidential election. This is because Osama's popularity ratings tend to parrarel bush's