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CAMH is mentioned in this Barron's article...I BOLDED the section where it is mentioned...Doug(IIC)
Looking for a Pulse
THANKS TO REASSURING SAFETY STUDIES, the chances for recovery have improved for shares of cardiac-device makers.
Device sales had slowed after a two-year stretch of manufacturing recalls hurt demand for implantable defibrillators. Shares of Medtronic (ticker: MDT), St. Jude Medical (STJ) and Boston Scientific (BSX) are down 15%, 29% and 33%, respectively, since last December.
Studies had also raised concerns about new risks from drug-eluting stents, those tiny mesh tubes put into narrowed heart arteries to prevent reclogging.
Now, with the stocks trading at historically low multiples of about 20 times next year's profits, a fair number of professional health-care investors are looking at quarterly reports for any sign of a demand uptick.
Monday, Minneapolis-based Medtronic reports results for its second fiscal quarter, ended in October. Sanford Bernstein analyst Bruce Nudell suspects that if Medtronic's sales of defibrillators, also known as ICDs, show any strength, a thrill would run through its shares and those of its rivals. "People are not concerned with the long term," says Nudell of his conversations with the buy side. "So, if it's a positive quarter, these stocks should go up."
Although Nudell thinks the three stocks should merely perform in line with the overall market, he understands why ICDs seem as if they've got room to grow. About 700,000 people in the U.S. who have never had a heart attack are nonetheless at some risk of suffering life-threatening heart arrhythmias, according to medical standards recognized by the Medicare program and private insurers. But only some 120,000 a year have been getting preventive implants of ICDs -- $25,000 devices whose batteries automatically jolt a heart back into a safe rhythm.
Recent encouraging news includes a study reported at last week's American Heart Association meeting in Chicago. It looked at the accuracy of a test that determines whether a patient needs an ICD. The "T-Wave Alternans" test requires placing a few sensors on a person's chest and has been promoted by tiny over-the-counter-traded Cambridge Heart (CAMH), as a less-invasive alternative to the traditional test, which involved threading a line inside a person's heart.
The study results suggest that the Cambridge measures may be better for finding new candidates for ICD implantation, than for ruling out implantation. So doctors may use the Cambridge test to justify additional defibrillator implants. Cambridge Heart and St. Jude sponsored the study.
Last month, two other encouraging studies considered certain risks in using drug-eluting stents, which lost some popularity after doctors worried that they caused a slight increase in heart-attack-inducing blood clots, unlike bare-metal stents.
But in studies sponsored by market leaders Boston Scientific and Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), researchers found no increased long-term risk of heart attack among recipients.
While the drug-coated devices were associated with slightly more blood clots, that was more than offset by the reduced danger of artery reclogging. Nudell says that investors' attention will be riveted on a Dec. 7 meeting of experts convened by the Food & Drug Administration to discuss the clotting risks of heart stents: "It's going to be a zoo."
But if the FDA's advisers temper their discussion, in light of the recently-reported studies, investors may well conclude that the blood-clot worries won't hurt earnings at Boston Scientific or J&J (which announced a $1.3 billion deal Friday to buy stentmaker Conor MedSystems (CONR).
The valuations of these device stocks reflect low-growth expectations. Any hint of faster sales gains -- in the low teens, say -- should spark investors to pay a little more for them.
JUST WHAT WE NEED, another wireless-transmission protocol. That's what I thought when a number of consumer-electronics manufacturers announced the formation of an organization to promote what they call WirelessHD, earlier this month. The technology is designed to transmit high-definition video across a room, without any entangling cables. What distinguishes Wireless HD from WiFi, WiMAX, WiMedia, Bluetooth, Ultrawideband and ZigBe is its ability to stream uncompressed high-def video. Other transmission technologies must throw away bits of every image to get a digitized movie down to a size that can be transmitted in a decent time. Any dropped bits in a compressed transmission can leave a big hole in your picture, so gadgets using Wireless HD could do without the expense of buffer memories.
A prime mover behind the technology is a Sunnyvale, Calif., startup called SiBEAM. The company has figured out how to send wireless signals at the amazing frequency of 60 billion cycles a second. What's more, SiBEAM can do it all on conventional silicon chips, thanks to technology it licensed from the University of California/Berkeley. SiBEAM's chief executive, John LeMoncheck, expects his chips to show up in products in 2008.
When I gaze into your future, I see you surrounded by the aura of a dozen different radio transmissions, from Bluetooth to WiMAX. Many of these technologies have been pioneered by small chip makers like Atheros Communications (ATHR), SiRF (SIRF) and London-listed CSR.
Some of these tough little companies have shoved aside larger competitors like Texas Instruments (TXN). But the entry of Broadcom (BRCM) into CSR's market for Bluetooth radio chips has cut the British stock in half -- even though CSR claims the best-of-breed product. Investors seem ready to run at the first sign of vulnerability in these upstart chip makers. Complacency doesn't pay.
I rather not see $2.65 but can't rule it out......I will say this though, tech is mostly garbage, along with Cramer. How can you invest in something caught up in a deflationary spiral? To me, there's only one real winner and that's the broker/dealers.....This is all one big casino and I believe in betting on the casino operators..
Even if CAMH does go to 2.65, I'm still very bullish long term. I would consider 2.65 as a huge bargain to be taken advantage of.
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Anything's possible websman
I rather not see $2.65 but can't rule it out......I will say this though, tech is mostly garbage, along with Cramer. How can you invest in something caught up in a deflationary spiral? To me, there's only one real winner and that's the broker/dealers.....This is all one big casino and I believe in betting on the casino operators..
I do hope you are right because if this thing dips tomorrow I will double down to 4000 shares. I do think MED and STJ will help. The problem is you have no idea how annoying drug reps are now that they can't give out anything free except pens. HaHa. But in all seriousness, I still think it is a 1-2 year story. Even drugs that have no competition still usually take about 1 year to ramp sales, although after that it could ramp up rather quickly.
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I think the ICD makers will help out
I think CAMH will get help in the marketing dept by MDT and STJ....Both of these companies are anxious to revive their ICD sales....I think this thing could ramp fairly quickly. $400 per test, that's good incentive for a cardiologist. How many salesman does MDT and STJ have? They're going to be pounding the pavement for CAMH starting right now. Free marketing, gotta love it.
I heard the CAMH's CEO said 1.2 million tests per year for the domestic market....that's $84M profit after cost of sales in sensor sales alone. It probably works out to $1 per share. Then, machine sales should be ramping to help out too. Peak earnings on 60 millon shares? Maybe $2.....Market PE of 17 gets you to $35 give or take?
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