CAMH....worth watching

[jblaze71]

Jim,

Thinking of asking you the same question. I figure that most investors figured they would get a run up to the announcement because of the numerous effective studies previously and then be able to dump their shares after making a nice profit. The support line should be about $3. I still think this is a 1-2 year story. Nothing responds quickly in medicine and for CAMH to record increasing quarterly profit will probably be 1 year. I think you were right on at about $10 in probably 18-24 months. Just a thought.

Jblaze, any thoughts about today's events?

Looks like a bout of buy the rumor and sell the news

Report supports CAMH

right on Jblaze.....Also, I think HRT is going to make the equipment for CAMH thought CAMH won't admit it.....I think HRT is a good speculation here.

[jblaze71]

Jim,

I have just spoke with one of the cardiologists on staff and he has stated that MTWA has fallen somewhat out of favor with the masses of cardiologists. He did his fellowship at Duke and he stated that they do not believe in the predictive value of the test. He did admit that there are some groups of cardiologists who swear on the bible with this test. Granted the cardiologist I spoke with is not an electrophysiologist but is very bright nonetheless. My point to the reply is that I still think with the literature is out there that the stock could probablydouble or triple but another Microsoft is doubtful.

Blaze

[Websman]

This drop in price today could be the buying opportunity I'm waiting for...

Thanks Jblaze

I figured you would have a handle on this.

[jblaze71]

Jim,

I went back and did a search on Pubmed. Of the latest 20 articles published, I could not find another abstract that was negative in regard to the MTWA test. In fact of the literature I have found, a negative MTWA test is 97.5% specific that a pt will not have a SCD event. The study that you wanted an opinion on was published in 2005 and should have already been factored into the stock price, probably right around the time it was sitting at .27. I really think that the research released tomorrow will be positive.

[jblaze71]

Jim,

This study does put a dent in the theory that MTWA works well to risk stratify patients. The problem with this study and most medical studies is that the patient population is relatively small, plus this pt population is very sick and therefore did not have a long life expectancy anyway. Plus this is only one study, from what I have read there are at least 4 positive studies. As long as the next 10 studies don't come out with negative results I think we will be OK. As long as CMS and the insurance companies are on board this will be OK. CAMH sales reps really need to push the product to the cardiologists for implementation. Plus anything the company can do to scare the general public that they could be at risk for dying without this test will increase usage.

[riverbabe]

TWA study

Does this in any way hurt the validity of MTWA? Thanks.

Jim, I know you're looking for jblaze to answer your question. But, in the meantime I'm going to stick my neck out. I'm afraid the results of this prospective study of TWA in a group of patients which might benefit from this test showed that TWA didn't make a heck of a difference in predicting outcome of their cardiac disease. Sorry. river (not an MD, just a former researcher)

[Websman]

I am just so wrapped up in this CAMH thing I can hardly think straight.....Did I drink four beers or six?

It was more like a whole case.....lol

Thanks Websman

I am just so wrapped up in this CAMH thing I can hardly think straight.....Did I drink four beers or six?

[Websman]

Oh well...I guess Jim doesn't have time to waste on an amateur such as myself. Maybe I should go play with the kiddies on the playground...Sssssjejejeje

Seriously though Jim!

Congratulations!!!

Your friend,
The Vulcan

jblaze, could you look at this?

Presentation Abstract

Monday, November 13, 2006 10:45am - 11:00am. 2113 T-Wave Alternans SCD HeFT Study: Primary Endpoint Analysis
Michael R. Gold, MUSC, Charleston, SC
Gust Bardy, Seattle Institute for Clinical Research, Seattle, WA

Abstract: The Sudden Cardiac Death in Heart Failure Trial (SCD HeFT) demonstrated that implantable defibrillators (ICD) decrease mortality compared with amiodarone or placebo, among patients (pts) with heart failure (NYHA II-III) and a reduced ejection fraction (< 35%). There is increasing interest in more refined risk stratification of SCD. In this regard, T-wave alternans (TWA) has emerged as a promising new measure of arrhythmia vulnerability.

Methods: This was a prospective study of 490 pts enrolled in SCD HeFT at 37 sites. Exercise TWA was interpreted by 2 blinded readers. The composite primary endpoint was SCD, sustained VT/VF or appropriate ICD discharge. All cause mortality was a secondary endpoint. Median follow-up was 35 months.

Results: This cohort was 76% male with median age of 59.6 yrs and EF of 25%. NYHA II CHF was present in 71% and 49% had ischemic heart disease. TWA was classified as positive (+) in 37%, Negative (-) in 22% and Indeterminate (Ind) in 41% of pts. Among ICD and placebo pts, there was no significant difference between event free survival among TWA + and - pts (HR=1.24, p=0.56, Figure). Similarly, TWA non - (+ or Ind) did not differ from TWA - (HR=1.28, p=0.46). Finally, mortality did not differ significantly between TWA groups.

Conclusions: Indeterminate TWA results (41%) were frequently observed in this population, which may limit the utility of this test. In addition, TWA was not useful for risk stratifying arrhythmia vulnerability in SCD HeFT, regardless of test outcome.

Does this in any way hurt the validity of MTWA? Thanks.

[Websman]

third pullback in the last 5 weeks that ended when it reached 10%.....The shares act well.....I like it when WLP used the term "medically necessary"......booyaaaa

Go CAMH!

Nice job Jim... The VTP has failed me on this one. Then again, this is the first time the VTP has ever failed to predict a move. I must now hang my head in shame.........

So.....Jim. Are you willing to cooperate with me now? I could teach you the ways of the Vulcan.

CAMH rolling up

third pullback in the last 5 weeks that ended when it reached 10%.....The shares act well.....I like it when WLP used the term "medically necessary"......booyaaaa