What about the Weather?

[skiracer]

I saw on TV the other night that the Polar Bear population is in danger because the ice caps are melting. They said there are only 20,000 to 25,000 left although I don't know how many there were at the peak...I guess people still hunt them too

I saw the same show. It seemed to be genuine. I think we have a serious situation on our hands that might not be reversible in our lifetimes or at all and we don't seem to want to believe the scientists and their forecasts and predictions. In the USA we have had the use of all the energy we want and have become accustomed to having as much as we want at our disposal with the flip of a switch or turn of a key. We have done alot of damage to the planet along with all of the other more advanced industrialized countries. What is going to happen when all of the third world countries that haven't had the use of disposable energy or the products that run on it start to come into the industrialized world and begin to obtain these products? I really believe that it will be to late before we realize what we have done to the planet in our drive to make ourselves more comfortable.

[Tatnic]

I saw on TV the other night that the Polar Bear population is in danger because the ice caps are melting. They said there are only 20,000 to 25,000 left although I don't know how many there were at the peak...I guess people still hunt them too

yeah, they'll be the first casualty of global warming. We came up with an idea on how to help them, but it only gives them a resting place. They get most of their food by catching seals on the ice flows...if the seals leave because they're no more flows, then the bears starve or look elsewhere for food.

Our idea was to build floating platforms so the bears at least have a place to rest and won't die from exhaustion. But that doesn't solve the food problem for them.

Not sure if they're still hunted although the inuits may still do so. It takes alot to kill a polar bear and I can't believe they're edible so what's the point?

[Tatnic]

I saw the same show. It seemed to be genuine. I think we have a serious situation on our hands that might not be reversible in our lifetimes or at all and we don't seem to want to believe the scientists and their forecasts and predictions. In the USA we have had the use of all the energy we want and have become accustomed to having as much as we want at our disposal with the flip of a switch or turn of a key. We have done alot of damage to the planet along with all of the other more advanced industrialized countries. What is going to happen when all of the third world countries that haven't had the use of disposable energy or the products that run on it start to come into the industrialized world and begin to obtain these products? I really believe that it will be to late before we realize what we have done to the planet in our drive to make ourselves more comfortable.

yep...I agree Ski.

[New-born baby]

Sunny out here in L.A. today...Although it is a little chilly...About 60...Weather.com says it will get down to 45 tonight.

The coldest I was ever in was -31 degrees back on a record cold day in Lincoln NE circa early 70's. I still remember that day although it wasn't all that bad as it was perfectly still...no wind. It was much worse back there when it was 10 or 15 and the wind was howling....I remember after indoor winter workouts...taking a shower and then going outside...My hair would instantly freeze...Then when I got where I was going it would defrost all down my face...Those were the good 'ol days...lol

Doug,
I've seen -41 in Wisconsin a few times. When I first moved up here from SC, I owned no long sleeved shirts. Then it hit a 21 day stretch where it never got above zero. It would start out in the morning at -25, and the weather man would say "It's -25 and going down to -31 by mid-afternoon." At Northland Baptist Bible College, I was there when the watertower froze up. The entire campus was without water. The National Guard sent in water buffaloes (i.e. water tanks) so we could get a drink, but bathing was out. OUCH. When it finally got to zero, it felt like a heat wave.

[Runner]

[Runner]

Summary of Proxy Temperature Studies
Scientific References of Studies

Although each of the proxy temperature records shown below is different, due in part to the diverse statistical methods utilized and sources of the proxy data, they all indicate similar patterns of temperature variability over the last 500 to 2000 years. Most striking is the fact that each record reveals a steep increase in the rate or spatial extent of warming since the mid-19th to early 20th centuries. When compared to the most recent decades of the instrumental record, they indicate the temperatures of the most recent decades are the warmest in the entire record. In addition, warmer than average temperatures are more widespread over the Northern Hemisphere in the 20th century than in any previous time.

The similarity of characteristics among the different paleoclimatic reconstructions provides confidence in the following important conclusions:
Dramatic warming has occurred since the 19th century.
The recent record warm temperatures in the last 15 years are indeed the warmest temperatures the Earth has seen in at least the last 1000 years, and possibly in the last 2000 years.

[Tatnic]

Summary of Proxy Temperature Studies
Scientific References of Studies
The similarity of characteristics among the different paleoclimatic reconstructions provides confidence in the following important conclusions:
Dramatic warming has occurred since the 19th century.
The recent record warm temperatures in the last 15 years are indeed the warmest temperatures the Earth has seen in at least the last 1000 years, and possibly in the last 2000 years.

that corresponds to the chart that was presented in Convenient Truth, which is the only thing that really stuck in my memory from that movie. For those of you who haven't seen the movie, that chart was developed by scientist studying ice cores from the antartic going back 600,000 years. From those cores they were able to determine carbon dioxide levels and temperatures simultaneously, and the plot of those two variables was very highly correlated...they didn't say what the r-square was but just looking at the chart you could see almost a mirror image between CO2 levels and temperature. Anyway, fast forwarding to present time, they extrapolated off the end of that chart what they thought the CO2 levels would be in the next few decades. That extrapolated line looked like an internet stock from the late 90's, straight up. They didn't bother plotting the temperature line because what's the point...a third grade student could have done it.

Now you can argue that their extrapolated line was too "liberal" (that's not a political term but a scientific term which means the opposite of conservative estimate), but even if the line were half as steep the impacts will be dramatic. But I personally think we need to plan for that line to be as steep as the worse case scenario because we all know how Murphy's law works, esp. when it comes to Mother Nature....she's like the stock market, she cares not what your personal situation is.

[Runner]

Update:

[skiracer]

Update:

Isn't that getting close to your backyard Runner?

[Runner]

Isn't that getting close to your backyard Runner?

\

Here is my local forecast:
Tonight: Periods of rain and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Low around 56. South wind between 5 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%...

Dude I was in flip flops and T-shirt over Christmas.. Strange weather we have been having...

[Runner]

I figured since the level of stock discussion was slim on MM's forum that I'd become the weatherman...

[Runner]

This is a cuurent WARNING box for the US. Updated at 19:59 EST

[IIC]

Ask Mr. Weather????????????

Dear Mr. Weather:

Can you please explain the difference in the Opaque Cloud Coverage when the forecast is "Mostly Sunny" vis-a-vis "Partly Cloudy"???

Signed,

Wondering in the West

[Runner]

Dear Mr. Weather:

Can you please explain the difference in the Opaque Cloud Coverage when the forecast is "Mostly Sunny" vis-a-vis "Partly Cloudy"???

Signed,

Wondering in the West

Sure Doug, as I see it....

For each forecast period the percentage of Opaque, Transparent and Total (sum of opaque and transparent) cloud cover forecasted for that period is indicated. The cloud cover parameter values are based on the detection of cloud in both the Water Vapour (6.7µm) image and the Infra-red window (10.7µm) image. The usually observed transition from clear to cloudy conditions occurs with the passage of a cloud band. As the cloud band approaches, there is a gradual increase in the amount of transparent cirrus, then the relative amount of opaque cloud increases while the transparent cirrus decreases. The amount of opaque cloud will reach a peak and then start to decrease, gradually giving way to transparent cirrus and finally clear skies. This cycle can take from a few hours to a day or more, depending on the extent, thickness and movement of the cloud band.

[skiracer]

Unbelievable weather here at the Jersey shore today. Bright and sunny and almost 70 degrees right on the ocean. Couldn't ask for better weather in January. Rain coming in tomorrow morning but still in the 50's. What's going on with the weather?