NFI - Oversold?? You betcha

[spikefader]

My advise is take the profit and run. But I do note the quarterly chart for it shows the 4.20 area as very solid quarterly band support. A quarterly close below 4.20 and it's a burnt toast candidate. Monthly chart sucks bilge water.....and this bullishness this week may be a dead cat bounce of sorts. Gaps will likely resist firmly. Logical point to take profit is 7.23 gap resistance. I sure wouldn't be a bagholder of this one...yet anyway...but you guys see a fundy value that I don't look at. Now if it were to put in a nice daily island reversal, or some other impressive bullishness I'd have to look at it again. But I note the daily is doing an 'a' corrective up. Prepare for 'b' down, then 'c' up in the next several days. That 'c' wherever it is will be the line in the sand on a daily basis. But know this: Price is acting extremely bearishly relative to bands, and on high volume. I wouldn't be surprised to see it go to zip if there's a quarterly close under that $4.20 area.

Good luck.

[Websman]

My advise is take the profit and run. But I do note the quarterly chart for it shows the 4.20 area as very solid quarterly band support. A quarterly close below 4.20 and it's a burnt toast candidate. Monthly chart sucks bilge water.....and this bullishness this week may be a dead cat bounce of sorts. Gaps will likely resist firmly. Logical point to take profit is 7.23 gap resistance. I sure wouldn't be a bagholder of this one...yet anyway...but you guys see a fundy value that I don't look at. Now if it were to put in a nice daily island reversal, or some other impressive bullishness I'd have to look at it again. But I note the daily is doing an 'a' corrective up. Prepare for 'b' down, then 'c' up in the next several days. That 'c' wherever it is will be the line in the sand on a daily basis. But know this: Price is acting extremely bearishly relative to bands, and on high volume. I wouldn't be surprised to see it go to zip if there's a quarterly close under that $4.20 area.

Good luck.

Leave it to Spike to spoil the party. LOL

[jiesen]

who wants to predict when they might pay it? What were the dates of the past few dividend payments??

Here they are:

15-Dec-06 $ 1.40
16-Nov-06 $ 1.40
10-Aug-06 $ 1.40
11-May-06 $ 1.40
28-Dec-05 $ 1.40
4-Nov-05 $ 1.40
10-Aug-05 $ 1.40
11-May-05 $ 1.40
29-Dec-04 $ 2.65

[jiesen]

My guess is that they hold off paying this year until the last possible minute (Dec) and pay out somewhere between 4-4.5. This may be the last big dividend for a while. If they continue to pay per the previous schedule, I'd be surprised, but quite happy with that. Not holding my breath though. They have announced that they are thinking about de-REITing. That shouldn't affect the payout of 2006 TI, though, only TI going forward.

[spikefader]

Leave it to Spike to spoil the party. LOL

At least I said it would maybe go another +20% to that resistance LOL

[Websman]

At least I said it would maybe go another +20% to that resistance LOL

Good point. PARTY'S BACK ON!!! YEAAAAAAAHAAAAAA!!!

[titanomega1]

Nfi?

Oh large one you indeed have found a ripe piece of cheese in an otherwise stinky market!

[mxa]

Love the Stats

Less than half of book and almost 100% div? Holy cash cow!

[mxa]

Can they 'de-REIT' after the fact and keep those earnings or do they legally have to pay out what was already earned before the 'de-REITition?'

"I see no reason that NFI wouldn't pay out at least $4 in dividends this year, so how can you go wrong buying at 5? TI for 2006 is more than $4, and they are required by being a REIT to distribute at least 90% of it. So unless they de-REIT or go BK before the year is up, a yield of 80% or better from here is pretty much in the bank. now THAT's a juicy dividend!

Bear Sterns agrees with us, too:

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070315/bear_...ions.html?.v=1[/QUOTE]"

[billyjoe]

Dow Theory Forecasts Quadrix Rankings of the worst performing stocks over the past 3 months , ranked according to fundamentals, seems to prefer FMT and even NEWC over NFI. The higher number, the better the fundies. These are the top 5 among the worst of the worst of 4200 stocks.

MED--fundy rating 89
NEWC--------------75
FMT--------------72
NWACQ-----------49
NFI---------------45

--------------------billyjoe

[spikefader]

...logical point to take profit is 7.23 gap resistance...

...to avoid the 24% profit-taking move.

[spikefader]

More NFI charts and thoughts:

http://technicaltrades.net/Scuttlebutt/viewtopic.php?p=950#950

[mrmarket]

I'll be taking a hard look at this one around lunchtime today.

[Tatnic]

Can they 'de-REIT' after the fact and keep those earnings or do they legally have to pay out what was already earned before the 'de-REITition?'

I see no reason that NFI wouldn't pay out at least $4 in dividends this year, so how can you go wrong buying at 5? TI for 2006 is more than $4, and they are required by being a REIT to distribute at least 90% of it. So unless they de-REIT or go BK before the year is up, a yield of 80% or better from here is pretty much in the bank. now THAT's a juicy dividend!

Bear Sterns agrees with us, too:

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070315/bear_...ions.html?.v=1

Book value is indeed low, but for a good reason. And if you pull up their cash flow statement, you'll see how they fund their dividend and you'll wonder just how quickly that will cease, ie the dividend. Oh maybe the restricted stock will pay a dividend, but that's reserved for the top rats so they can jump ship and leave the bag holders (commoners) on board. Around 43% of the float is short so that probably explains alot. If this stock ever jumped up 20%~30% it would be a gift from the shorting gods.

[billyjoe]

Mr.Market,
What now ? Jump in ? Get out ? or keep watching ?

----------billyjoe