NFI - Oversold?? You betcha

[mrmarket]

Mr.Market,
What now ? Jump in ? Get out ? or keep watching ?

----------billyjoe

If I get two down days in a row, I will sell if it opens down on the third day.

[spikefader]

[Karel]

Wild ride today ...

Regards,

Karel

[spikefader]

Wild ride today ...

Regards,

Karel

That's what tends to happen around a fuzzy C

Today:

[New-born baby]

Just passing by . . . .

Haven't been around much with so much to do around here. But I was passing by and saw this thread on NFI. I've got friends with perhaps 100k shares of this loser. Hey, they bought around $30, so what else would you call it?

Frankly, she ought to run to $15. You read it here first.

[mrmarket]

I'm out

I got out at $5.70 this morning...I did not like the direction this was going and got cold feet and wanted to keep my profits. I'll keep an eye on it though as I think long term, this might be a good one to ride.

[skiracer]

If it holds this level at 5.30 I'm in on the long side. It does seem very oversold at these prices. I want to see it hold a bottom first. Looking for anything over recent highs in the 6 range.

[skiracer]

I'm in at $5.32.

[mrmarket]

Good luck Ski...I may join you tomorrow. Boy..daytrading is scary!

[skiracer]

Good luck Ski...I may join you tomorrow. Boy..daytrading is scary!

I really think it is pretty much oversold and will eventually get back to a much higher level once this subprime lending hysteria gets straightened out. There will be some carnage but this is cheap to me. I'll give it to $4.95 and I would exit at -7% max. I like it to go over 7/8 or more but would take anything over 6 or recent highs.

[spikefader]

..a quarterly close below 4.20 and it's a burnt toast candidate.

No change to this observation. Technically, that would be extremely bearish long-term. Dead cat bounce to 15.00 always possible, NB. But sometimes they just keep falling..... Good luck all.

[IIC]

I really think it is pretty much oversold and will eventually get back to a much higher level once this subprime lending hysteria gets straightened out. There will be some carnage but this is cheap to me. I'll give it to $4.95 and I would exit at -7% max. I like it to go over 7/8 or more but would take anything over 6 or recent highs.

Subprime fiasco has just started...NFI is toast along with the rest of 'em IMO

[jiesen]

Subprime fiasco has just started...NFI is toast along with the rest of 'em IMO

Why do you expect the fiasco to be limited to subprime loans? Can't any loans, even ones rated AAA double-plus good go into default if the borrower goes broke or just decides to quit making payments?

I think the riskier bets are the GS and other giants that have yet to show signs of the "fiasco". At least with NFI, even if it does go belly up next year, you can still expect $4-5 in dividends from last year out of them first. And there's always the chance they get scooped up by GS or Bear Stearns for a few bucks more, too. Let the big boys eat the big losses... if they indeed happen. I'm still hoping the helicopters show up with all the cash to bail us out of this pickle, and keep the party going for a few more years.

C'mon Ben, sometimes inflation is a good thing!

[IIC]

Why do you expect the fiasco to be limited to subprime loans? Can't any loans, even ones rated AAA double-plus good go into default if the borrower goes broke or just decides to quit making payments?

I think the riskier bets are the GS and other giants that have yet to show signs of the "fiasco". At least with NFI, even if it does go belly up next year, you can still expect $4-5 in dividends from last year out of them first. And there's always the chance they get scooped up by GS or Bear Stearns for a few bucks more, too. Let the big boys eat the big losses... if they indeed happen. I'm still hoping the helicopters show up with all the cash to bail us out of this pickle, and keep the party going for a few more years.

C'mon Ben, sometimes inflation is a good thing!

Oh...subprime is just the start...Next comes Alt-A.

You know who I think is a good short over the next two years?...WFC...They are at 34.68 now...You just wait...they bury these loans so far down in their financials that nobody ever sees them until it all comes out...Save this post and let me know where they stand on March 26, 2009.

[skiracer]

As I stated I think it is way oversold and mostly because of the subprime lending situation. I liked it yesterday at $5.32 because I felt that it had found a bottom. The R/R is pretty good for what I am looking for. I set a stop at $4.95, which is .37 below my entry, and am looking for it to go back over $6 and most likely $7. That would make it an R/R of just over 4.5 to 1.
The chart doesn't show much technically to the upside but what I really liked was that it went over $7 the last week and then sold off. I'm willing to risk the .37 loss on 3000 shares for the possible gains of $1.68. That's 4.5 to 1 in my book. But of course it has to do it first but the most I will lose is $1110.00 to gain $5040.00. I liked the way it finished the day yesterday but we'll see what it does today. No play no pay.