Cup w/ Handles

[jae16]

Ok well again as I said... I need to fine-tune this little stockscreen that I have came up with...

In exchange for posting this, I was hoping you guys could post some additional improvements to the screen in terms of additional fundamental analysis...

Ok well here is what I got so far... it is putting out about 40 stocks at this time, and depending on how I change the numbers I can get more or less and in varying stages of their cup formations...

EPS Growth YR Over YR > 35%
Last Price > .5 x 52 week high < .7 x 52 week high
Last fiscal EPS > .5
ROE 5 yr Avg > 5
Return on assest and return on equity (increased in the last year)
% Change in last month < -10% (this helps to find those forming left side of cup)

well thats it for now... I am working to improve this...

I meant to say this helps to find those forming the right side of their cups...

[Rob]

Fdg

FDG: a little sloppy perhaps but I do see a cup+handle formation there.

[IIC]

Ok well again as I said... I need to fine-tune this little stockscreen that I have came up with...

In exchange for posting this, I was hoping you guys could post some additional improvements to the screen in terms of additional fundamental analysis...

Ok well here is what I got so far... it is putting out about 40 stocks at this time, and depending on how I change the numbers I can get more or less and in varying stages of their cup formations...

EPS Growth YR Over YR > 35%
Last Price > .5 x 52 week high < .7 x 52 week high
Last fiscal EPS > .5
ROE 5 yr Avg > 5
Return on assest and return on equity (increased in the last year)
% Change in last month < -10% (this helps to find those forming left side of cup)

well thats it for now... I am working to improve this...

Where do you run this scan?

I'm not sure what you are looking for based on your parameters???

[jae16]

Ok well again as I said... I need to fine-tune this little stockscreen that I have came up with...

In exchange for posting this, I was hoping you guys could post some additional improvements to the screen in terms of additional fundamental analysis...

Ok well here is what I got so far... it is putting out about 40 stocks at this time, and depending on how I change the numbers I can get more or less and in varying stages of their cup formations...

EPS Growth YR Over YR > 35%
Last Price > .5 x 52 week high < .7 x 52 week high
Last fiscal EPS > .5
ROE 5 yr Avg > 5
Return on assest and return on equity (increased in the last year)
% Change in last month < -10% (this helps to find those forming left side of cup)

well thats it for now... I am working to improve this...

[skiracer]

Ski,
Would you say a pattern such as WIRE would be anticipating a cup formation or is it too flat for an extended period of time? Thanks

-----------billyjoe

Billyjoe,
I looked at it as starting in October and running to the present. I think the chances of it forming the right side and finishing off the cup base are high and better than not. It's a low risk high reward situation. At least 6/7 to 1.
If you go all the way back to Aug., depending on how you have your chart parameters set up, that first drop or partial cup or beginning of a cup doesn't count with me. To me that's the rise before the drop as stated in the definition. Maybe not a full 30% but decent. This is not a full cup base anyway. I never called it that. To me it's a 52 wk. low that is exhibiting characteristics that are leading me to think that it will make the right side of it's cup. It just happens to have a uniformly U shaped slope leading into the 52 wk. bottom.
It already has 3 months into the pattern. I would expect that the right side would take at least another 2 to 3 months to make the right side. I don't want it to break what uniformity it has going now. I would like to see it make the right side exactly as it did the left side except going up. Made up of trends up and short pullbacks accompanied by trends up etc... I certainly don't see it as being to flat or lengthy.

[billyjoe]

Ski,
Would you say a pattern such as WIRE would be anticipating a cup formation or is it too flat for an extended period of time? Thanks

-----------billyjoe

[billyjoe]

Jae,
I see at least 4 possible thread titles :

1. Anticipating the Base Bottom

2. Anticipating the Cup

3. Anticipating the Handle

4. Probability of Success in Anticipating the Cup Base, the Cup, and the Handle in Cup w/ Handle Charts

-------------billyjoe

[skiracer]

I think I have found a stock screening formula that can find a high number of stocks that could possibly be forming the right sides of their cups, or atleast in their base period towards the bottom, with good financials also...

I want to research these a bit more but I will post the formula here in a bit, and let me know what you guys think... But the first 5 or so stocks on the list that I have looked at appear to be promising...

PS. do you guys want me to post this stuff here? Or make a new post?

I personally am intrigued by the prospects of this and want you to spare us the initial lead in and post the screening formula and the stocks as soon as you can please.

[IIC]

I think I have found a stock screening formula that can find a high number of stocks that could possibly be forming the right sides of their cups, or atleast in their base period towards the bottom, with good financials also...

I want to research these a bit more but I will post the formula here in a bit, and let me know what you guys think... But the first 5 or so stocks on the list that I have looked at appear to be promising...

PS. do you guys want me to post this stuff here? Or make a new post?

Please post it here...thx...Doug

[jae16]

I think I have found a stock screening formula that can find a high number of stocks that could possibly be forming the right sides of their cups, or atleast in their base period towards the bottom, with good financials also...

I want to research these a bit more but I will post the formula here in a bit, and let me know what you guys think... But the first 5 or so stocks on the list that I have looked at appear to be promising...

PS. do you guys want me to post this stuff here? Or make a new post?

[skiracer]

[quote=IIC;90852]Here's one from our list yesterday...cup was not ideally rounded...but it did sort of have a double bottom thing going on altho the right side bottom was a bit low %-wise

really nice looking chart doug. it looks to be getting ready to make it's move. if the markets cooperate this one could turn out to be a beauty. yesterdays candle seems to be indicating that it is going off. the best part about this is that no one is shoving anything down anyones throat. The charts and the discussion have been pretty good of late and hopefully it will grow with new interest and dialogue. since the cup and handle thread is yours it seems it is the best place to post these charts and talk about the setups.

[IIC]

Here's one from our list yesterday...cup was not ideally rounded...but it did sort of have a double bottom thing going on altho the right side bottom was a bit low %-wise

[IIC]

Ya know I don't have the slightest idea what either one of them do and didn't even look at the fundamentals on either one of them. Strictly the chart pattern on these two. I have found that a high percentage of them exhibiting this pattern do make the right side of their cup from this point. But also some don't and that is where controlling the trade and your emotions come into play. I will exit the trade in a heartbeat if it breaches my 7% stop loss rule and walk away with the loss and move on to the next setup. It's a matter of having a discipline and a plan and sticking to it regardless. They all do not work out as expected and your controlling the trade and your emotions is all that you have going for you. That is the difference between me and most others and between being successful and not. It is a matter of knowing exactly what you want to do and expect to do.

Well...I can't argue with that.

Anyway...To others...I think what we are trying to do on this thread is point out the different possibilties at different time frames with the pattern that you may be able to take advantage of...Good Discussion recently...Glad to see it...Best To All...Doug(IIC)

[skiracer]

It is a strategy that can work as Ski points out...But I'd like to see some increasing eps and sales on these two.

Ya know I don't have the slightest idea what either one of them do and didn't even look at the fundamentals on either one of them. Strictly the chart pattern on these two. I have found that a high percentage of them exhibiting this pattern do make the right side of their cup from this point. But also some don't and that is where controlling the trade and your emotions come into play. I will exit the trade in a heartbeat if it breaches my 7% stop loss rule and walk away with the loss and move on to the next setup. It's a matter of having a discipline and a plan and sticking to it regardless. They all do not work out as expected and your controlling the trade and your emotions is all that you have going for you. That is the difference between me and most others and between being successful and not. It is a matter of knowing exactly what you want to do and expect to do.

[skiracer]

So how important is it for a CwH to have an upward slope to the left rim of the cup? I've seen one website that says you would like to see the price rise by about 30% leading to the cup. Both GEHL and WIRE don't seem to fit that criteria, but how important is that?

It's important to understand that these two patterns are not cup bases yet. Therefore some leeway on the definition. If I were going to call them cup bases with handles then I would put alot more emphasis on the definition and try to get as close to the true definition as stated by Bulkowski for cups and handle bases as I could. But they are not cups yet and are just a pattern that I like to trade and have used numerous times to catch early what turns out to be a cup base and handle pattern 6 or 7 points later after they have made the right side of their cup. I am just getting in early on what I expect to mature into a full cup. When you catch the right ones at this point you can see how rewarding they can be if they do make the right side as expected. And believe me a large percentage of the right ones do.
These are low risk and high reward setups and trades that have to be managed properly by setting a stop no more than 7% from your entry and to have the emotional control to let the gains run out to their maximum. That means controlling the trade by bring a trailing stop up to specific points as the trades makes the right side of the cup. That is significant in that if you bring it up to close you run the risk of getting stopped out before you maximize the gains and it makes the complete right side. But you can always re-enter. I think I caught both of these at the right point and have placed myself in a position to max out on a low risk setup with a opportunity for a large reward. Of course the markets have to provide some help but the loss will not be more than 7% or about 1.25 on either one of them and the reward could go as high 7/8 points. That's putting the" edge in your favor".