The 3rd Quarter 2007 NASDAQ Contest

[mimo_100]

I shoot for 2667

good pick ringo -- perhaps the Lord will move mountains for you by the end of the third quarter -- you got it.

[mimo_100]

2710 fer me thanks, Mimo!

you got 2710 -- nice chat, spike!

[mimo_100]

Here is the slate so far

Here is the slate so far.

11 in the mix right now. You have until 1 minute before the market opens today to post your number.

peanuts.......2750.00 [06/29/2007 12:12]
spike.........2710.00 [06/29/2007 17:47]
Gatorman: ....2683.04 [06/20/2007 09:21]
ringo69.......2667.00 [06/29/2007 13:19]
river: .......2628.00 [06/16/2007 08:30]
mxa: .........2604.99 [06/18/2007 08:55]

NASDAQ: ......2603.23 [06/29/2007 16:00] <== current value
NASDAQ: ......????.?? [07/02/2007 09:29] <== number picking closed

jiesen........2552.07 [06/29/2007 11:46]
Rob: .........2500.00 [06/15/2007 05:55]
stenzrob: ....2400.00 [06/19/2007 17:43]
IIC...........2369.66 [06/29/2007 11:11]
mimo..........2328.51 [06/29/2007 11:09]

[billyjoe]

mimo,
I'm highly optimistic. 2771

----------billyjoe

[mimo_100]

mimo,
I'm highly optimistic. 2771

----------billyjoe

OK billyjoe, you are king of the mountain for now -- you got it!

[mimo_100]

Here are the final numbers
12 of the best predictions ever made on planet earth.

billyjoe......2771.00 [07/02/2007 07:26]
peanuts.......2750.00 [06/29/2007 12:12]
spike.........2710.00 [06/29/2007 17:47]
Gatorman: ....2683.04 [06/20/2007 09:21]
ringo69.......2667.00 [06/29/2007 13:19]

NASDAQ: ......2632.30 [07/02/2007 16:00] <== current value

river: .......2628.00 [06/16/2007 08:30]
mxa: .........2604.99 [06/18/2007 08:55]

NASDAQ: ......2603.23 [07/02/2007 09:29] <== number picking closed

jiesen........2552.07 [06/29/2007 11:46]
Rob: .........2500.00 [06/15/2007 05:55]
stenzrob: ....2400.00 [06/19/2007 17:43]
IIC...........2369.66 [06/29/2007 11:11]
mimo..........2328.51 [06/29/2007 11:09]

[mimo_100]

Back to where we started at the beginning of the quarter.

billyjoe......2771.00 [07/02/2007 07:26]
peanuts.......2750.00 [06/29/2007 12:12]

NASDAQ: ......2720.04 [07/19/2007 16:00] <== high this quarter

spike.........2710.00 [06/29/2007 17:47]
Gatorman: ....2683.04 [06/20/2007 09:21]
ringo69.......2667.00 [06/29/2007 13:19]
river: .......2628.00 [06/16/2007 08:30]
mxa: .........2604.99 [06/18/2007 08:55]

NASDAQ: ......2603.23 [07/02/2007 09:29] <== number picking closed
NASDAQ: ......2599.34 [07/26/2007 16:00] <== current value

jiesen........2552.07 [06/29/2007 11:46]
Rob: .........2500.00 [06/15/2007 05:55]
stenzrob: ....2400.00 [06/19/2007 17:43]
IIC...........2369.66 [06/29/2007 11:11]
mimo..........2328.51 [06/29/2007 11:09]
__________________

[jiesen]

let's hear it for reversion to the mean! Today's action puts me in 1st place.

[riverbabe]

let's hear it for reversion to the mean! Today's action puts me in 1st place.

Does it? My math puts mxa first, river second and you third. 'Course I'm currently in a different time zone from the usual and that could mix me up a little. A ruling, oh great one MIMO??? Riverbabe

[jiesen]

no ruling necessary

Does it? My math puts mxa first, river second and you third. 'Course I'm currently in a different time zone from the usual and that could mix me up a little. A ruling, oh great one MIMO??? Riverbabe

I think we can clear this up quite simply. If you used mimo's table for your calculations, I can see how you came up with your answer, but I was referring to the action on 7/27, not 7/26. It may have to do with the time zone, because at different times during the day, the NASDAQ was both above and below 2578.5, which is the midpoint between my pick and mxa's. When I made the post, the NASDAQ had just fallen below 2578 (of course this may seem wrong depending on your time zone, and what time zone the site is reporting the posts on your computer). At any rate, it closed at 2562.2, which is just 10 points off of my pick.

Ok, I admit it's not so simple a matter after all, but my original statement still holds- and yesterday's action did put me in 1st!

[IIC]

I'm lookin' pretty darn good here

[billyjoe]

I'm lookin' pretty darn good here

Doug,
You're only 230 points away but I'm only 171 points back. Ha Ha!!

------------billyjoe

[spikefader]

Have yer fun in th' sun ye scallywags.

I reckon ye only got a weeks or so o' it before a bounce.

[IIC]

Have yer fun in th' sun ye scallywags.

I reckon ye only got a weeks or so o' it before a bounce.

Spike...There is no argument from me that you are a MASTER Technician compared to my Novice-Intermediate technical abilities...But I have a question that I've wanted to ask you for a long time...I just have not figured out how to word it correctly...

But it goes something like this:

Do you think Technicals predict reality...OR...Do you think Technicals react to reality???

Does that question make sense?

I appreciate your take...thx...Doug

[spikefader]

Spike...There is no argument from me that you are a MASTER Technician compared to my Novice-Intermediate technical abilities...But I have a question that I've wanted to ask you for a long time...I just have not figured out how to word it correctly...

But it goes something like this:

Do you think Technicals predict reality...OR...Do you think Technicals react to reality???

Does that question make sense?

I appreciate your take...thx...Doug

I'd have to say that technicals reflect reality ... and it is the trading world who predicts and reacts (or not) to reality.

If one thing is true about them, technicals will find points of support and resistance based on what has happened in the past or reasonable projections of such things as trendlines etc.

What the investing and trading world chooses to do at those points of support and resistance varies according to so many things........and this alone might tempt one to say that prediction of immediate price direction is impossible, so why make the attempt? But I ask the question: Does prediction even matter? And I offer this observation:

Correct prediction of immediate price direction isn't the necessary element to profitable trading. What will make you money on the average is disciplined execution based on favorable risk/reward parameters and a sensible combination of win/loss ratio of methodology and % probability of winners.

I think few would disagree with the assertion that the odds really do favor buying at support levels and selling at resistance levels, but at the same time the risk of support or resistance failing is still real....just as real as the perceived chance of favorable movement. The reality at the time of buying technical support or selling technical resistance is that while future price direction is unknown a buyer's/seller's proven/implied/anticipated edge compels them to act according to their method. And a profitable trader should/will/does bind him or herself by strict rules that favor profitability over loss on the average, according to the numbers. Their reality is that prediction doesn't so matter as much as excellent management and execution.

My reality is that if I buy at support levels based on the technicals, I will sell if the support breaks or my assigned risk is reached, or else wait until my realistic target is met. I may in reality adjust my stop or target depending on the reality of price action going forward, and by doing so the odds should favor account growth.

But this is quite a distinct tangent from your original question, which was framed around the assumption that technicals actually do something. And if they do anything, it's reflect the reality that I'm going to do something about.