The 3rd Quarter 2007 NASDAQ Contest

[IIC]

Spike...That was a very interesting answer...thx

[riverbabe]

I'd have to say that technicals reflect reality ... and it is the trading world who predicts and reacts (or not) to reality.

If one thing is true about them, technicals will find points of support and resistance based on what has happened in the past or reasonable projections of such things as trendlines etc.

What the investing and trading world chooses to do at those points of support and resistance varies according to so many things........and this alone might tempt one to say that prediction of immediate price direction is impossible, so why make the attempt? But I ask the question: Does prediction even matter? And I offer this observation:

Correct prediction of immediate price direction isn't the necessary element to profitable trading. What will make you money on the average is disciplined execution based on favorable risk/reward parameters and a sensible combination of win/loss ratio of methodology and % probability of winners.

I think few would disagree with the assertion that the odds really do favor buying at support levels and selling at resistance levels, but at the same time the risk of support or resistance failing is still real....just as real as the perceived chance of favorable movement. The reality at the time of buying technical support or selling technical resistance is that while future price direction is unknown a buyer's/seller's proven/implied/anticipated edge compels them to act according to their method. And a profitable trader should/will/does bind him or herself by strict rules that favor profitability over loss on the average, according to the numbers. Their reality is that prediction doesn't so matter as much as excellent management and execution.

My reality is that if I buy at support levels based on the technicals, I will sell if the support breaks or my assigned risk is reached, or else wait until my realistic target is met. I may in reality adjust my stop or target depending on the reality of price action going forward, and by doing so the odds should favor account growth.

But this is quite a distinct tangent from your original question, which was framed around the assumption that technicals actually do something. And if they do anything, it's reflect the reality that I'm going to do something about.

Good grief! Another frameable quote! At this rate I'll be able to paper my walls with SPIKE-ISMS!!! Riverbabe

[mimo_100]

Still heading south. Where will it be at the end of August?

billyjoe......2771.00 [07/02/2007 07:26]
peanuts.......2750.00 [06/29/2007 12:12]

NASDAQ: ......2720.04 [07/19/2007 16:00] <== high this quarter

spike.........2710.00 [06/29/2007 17:47]
Gatorman: ....2683.04 [06/20/2007 09:21]
ringo69.......2667.00 [06/29/2007 13:19]
river: .......2628.00 [06/16/2007 08:30]
mxa: .........2604.99 [06/18/2007 08:55]

NASDAQ: ......2603.23 [07/02/2007 09:29] <== number picking closed

NASDAQ: ......2553.87 [08/01/2007 16:00] <== current value

jiesen........2552.07 [06/29/2007 11:46]
Rob: .........2500.00 [06/15/2007 05:55]
stenzrob: ....2400.00 [06/19/2007 17:43]
IIC...........2369.66 [06/29/2007 11:11]
mimo..........2328.51 [06/29/2007 11:09]
__________________

[billyjoe]

Doug is now closer than me. This is bad.

--------billyjoe

[riverbabe]

... is that the Nasdaq Composite will close at 2500 on Sep. 28.

Shucks Rob, you took my guess. I think you're going to win this one.
Okay, so I'll be a little more optimistic and say 2628. What the heck. River

Getting interesting Rob....

[mimo_100]

Still heading south. Where will it be at the end of August?

NASDAQ: ......2720.04 [07/19/2007 16:00] <== highest close this quarter
NASDAQ: ......2511.25 [08/03/2007 16:00] <== lowest close this quarter


billyjoe......2771.00 [07/02/2007 07:26]
peanuts.......2750.00 [06/29/2007 12:12]
spike.........2710.00 [06/29/2007 17:47]
Gatorman: ....2683.04 [06/20/2007 09:21]
ringo69.......2667.00 [06/29/2007 13:19]
river: .......2628.00 [06/16/2007 08:30]
mxa: .........2604.99 [06/18/2007 08:55]

NASDAQ: ......2603.23 [07/02/2007 09:29] <== number picking closed

jiesen........2552.07 [06/29/2007 11:46]

NASDAQ: ......2511.25 [08/03/2007 16:00] <== current value

Rob: .........2500.00 [06/15/200705:55]
stenzrob: ....2400.00 [06/19/200717:43]
IIC...........2369.66 [06/29/200711:11]
mimo..........2328.51 [06/29/200711:09]

[mimo_100]

key support level near 2492

The Nasdaq is now nearing a key support level at its 200 Day Exponential Moving Average near 2492. If the Nasdaq is unable to hold support here then it could fall back to its March low near 2350.

[mxa]

This too Shall Pass

OK the 'summer doldrums' are a little more intense than just doldrums right now. I still say we can shake this off in the next month or so and have a chance to close the Nasdaq around 2604 at the end of Sept.

[IIC]

The Nasdaq is now nearing a key support level at its 200 Day Exponential Moving Average near 2492. If the Nasdaq is unable to hold support here then it could fall back to its March low near 2350.

And then I'd win




.

[mimo_100]

On 8/6/2007 I wrote:

“The NASDAQ is now nearing a key support level at its 200 Day Exponential Moving Average near 2492. If the NASDAQ is unable to hold support here then it could fall back to its March low near 2350.”

The NASDAQ closed on its low of the day today. The current 200 day EMA is 2495.12

NASDAQ: ......2720.04 [07/19/2007 16:00] <== highest close this quarter
NASDAQ: ......2499.12 [08/14/2007 16:00] <== lowest close this quarter


billyjoe......2771.00 [07/02/2007 07:26]
peanuts.......2750.00 [06/29/2007 12:12]
spike.........2710.00 [06/29/2007 17:47]
Gatorman: ....2683.04 [06/20/2007 09:21]
ringo69.......2667.00 [06/29/2007 13:19]
river: .......2628.00 [06/16/2007 08:30]
mxa: .........2604.99 [06/18/2007 08:55]

NASDAQ: ......2603.23 [07/02/2007 09:29] <== number picking closed

jiesen........2552.07 [06/29/2007 11:46]
Rob: .........2500.00 [06/15/2007 05:55]

NASDAQ: ......2499.12 [08/14/2007 16:00] <== current value

stenzrob: ....2400.00 [06/19/2007 17:43]
IIC...........2369.66 [06/29/2007 11:11]
mimo..........2328.51 [06/29/2007 11:09]

[mimo_100]

The current 200 day Simple MA is 2595.86

Getting ready to start the 4th Quarter soon.

NASDAQ: ......2720.04 [07/19/2007 16:00] <== highest close this quarter
NASDAQ: ......2451.07 [08/16/2007 16:00] <== lowest close this quarter

billyjoe......2771.00 [07/02/2007 07:26]
peanuts.......2750.00 [06/29/2007 12:12]
spike.........2710.00 [06/29/2007 17:47]
Gatorman: ....2683.04 [06/20/2007 09:21]
ringo69.......2667.00 [06/29/2007 13:19]
river: .......2628.00 [06/16/2007 08:30]
mxa: .........2604.99 [06/18/2007 08:55]

NASDAQ: ......2603.23 [07/02/2007 09:29] <== number picking closed
NASDAQ: ......2565.70 [09/07/2007 16:00] <== current value

jiesen........2552.07 [06/29/2007 11:46]
Rob: .........2500.00 [06/15/2007 05:55]
stenzrob: ....2400.00 [06/19/2007 17:43]
IIC...........2369.66 [06/29/2007 11:11]
mimo..........2328.51 [06/29/2007 11:09]

[mxa]

Half Point Rate Cut

That half point rate cut put a shot of overexuberance into the markets. I can see the NASDAQ settling down to normal exuberance in the short-term.

[mimo_100]

NASDAQ: ......2720.04 [07/19/2007 16:00] <== highest close this quarter
NASDAQ: ......2451.07 [08/16/2007 16:00] <== lowest close this quarter

billyjoe......2771.00 [07/02/2007 07:26]
peanuts.......2750.00 [06/29/2007 12:12]
spike.........2710.00 [06/29/2007 17:47]
Gatorman: ....2683.04 [06/20/2007 09:21]
ringo69.......2667.00 [06/29/2007 13:19]

NASDAQ: ......2666.48 [09/19/2007 16:00] <== current value

river: .......2628.00 [06/16/2007 08:30]
mxa: .........2604.99 [06/18/2007 08:55]

NASDAQ: ......2603.23 [07/02/2007 09:29] <== number picking closed

jiesen........2552.07 [06/29/2007 11:46]
Rob: .........2500.00 [06/15/2007 05:55]
stenzrob: ....2400.00 [06/19/2007 17:43]
IIC...........2369.66 [06/29/2007 11:11]
mimo..........2328.51 [06/29/2007 11:09]

If the contest ended yesterday, the absolute value of the difference and the order of finish would be:

000.52 ....... ringo69
016.56 ....... Gatorman
038.48 ....... river
043.52 ....... spike
061.49 ....... mxa
083.52 ....... peanuts
104.52 ....... billyjoe
114.41 ....... jiesen
166.48 ....... Rob
266.48 ....... stenzrob
296.82 ....... IIC
337.97 ....... mimo

[mimo_100]

NASDAQ: ......2720.04 [07/19/2007 16:00] <== highest close this quarter
NASDAQ: ......2451.07 [08/16/2007 16:00] <== lowest close this quarter

billyjoe......2771.00 [07/02/2007 07:26]
peanuts.......2750.00 [06/29/2007 12:12]
spike.........2710.00 [06/29/2007 17:47]
Gatorman: ....2683.04 [06/20/2007 09:21]

NASDAQ: ......2671.22 [09/21/2007 16:00] <== current value

ringo69.......2667.00 [06/29/2007 13:19]
river: .......2628.00 [06/16/2007 08:30]
mxa: .........2604.99 [06/18/2007 08:55]

NASDAQ: ......2603.23 [07/02/2007 09:29] <== number picking closed

jiesen........2552.07 [06/29/2007 11:46]
Rob: .........2500.00 [06/15/2007 05:55]
stenzrob: ....2400.00 [06/19/2007 17:43]
IIC...........2369.66 [06/29/2007 11:11]
mimo..........2328.51 [06/29/2007 11:09]

The 4th Quarter Thread is available for your entries. Take a shot!
If the contest ended last Friday, the order of finish would be:

ringo69 ... 4.22
Gatorman .. 11.82
spike ..... 38.78
river ..... 43.22
mxa: ...... 66.23
peanuts ... 78.78
billyjoe .. 99.78
jiesen .... 119.15
Rob ....... 171.22
stenzrob .. 271.22
IIC ....... 301.56
mimo ...... 342.71

[Rob]

I Had It There For a While

... and here is a graphic representation of the 3rd quarter contest.