VDSI ==> The ALCS Winner!

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  • mrmarket
    Administrator
    • Sep 2003
    • 5971

    VDSI ==> The ALCS Winner!

    You know the drill. You call up your bank because you lost your ATM card, or because they charged you a late fee that you don’t want to pay, or you just feel like yelling at someone because you don’t have any monies.

    Your bank says, “We’d be happy to help you $$$MR. MARKET$$$ but first we’d like you to answer some security questions.”

    Then you get the list of questions:

    • What is your mother’s maiden name?
    • What is your pet’s name?
    • What street did you grow up on?
    • How much can you bench press?
    • How big are your biceps?

    After all of these top secret questions are answered, you can go ahead and transact all of your business. Now then…did you ever go to a party and have someone ask you these very same questions? I am always at parties where drunk, comely women are trying to wrap their hands around my biceps and ask how big they are. Maybe they aren’t really drunk. Come to think of it, they asked me what my dog’s name was (he’s dead). They also asked me what street I grew up on….uh oh.

    Next thing I know, I call up my bank and they say, “Thank you for your business $$$MR. MARKET$$$. We see that you have $4.16 cents in your account. Was there any reason you made such an enormous withdrawal last month?? “ Rut-ro.

    Fortunately there is a company out there that is safeguarding all of our hard earned money from nefarious intentions. I want to own stock in this company right now.

    Today I bought stock in Vasco Data Security (VDSI) at 43.27. I will sell it in 4 to 6 weeks at 50.20. Here’s why I like VDSI:

    VDSI stock is up over 400% in the last 12 months. Everyone has to love this kind of price momentum. Of course, you have to be concerned about the PE of 82. Sometimes if you want something really good, you just have to pay for it. Look at this chart. Lots of people besides $$$MR. MARKET$$$ love VDSI.



    What’s so good about this company?

    Vasco's moneymaker is what might be called an electronic key for online banking. To safeguard Internet transactions, banks in the U.S. often ask customers a "life question," such as the name of a favorite pet or how big their biceps are. In Europe, though, many financial institutions rely on Vasco's Digipass, a handheld device that uses a microprocessor to generate a random number every time a customer types in his name and password. The sequence in that mobile-phone-sized device matches a number that's synchronously generated by the bank's computer. The only people who know this random number at the time of the transaction are the bank and the customer. Then it vaporizes. Next time you do a transaction, you get a whole new random number.

    While online banking is no longer new, e-piracy is bigger than ever and we need companies like Vasco to stay ahead of the bad guys. The company's entry in the U.S. has been slow, with less than 10% of its revenue coming from this country. Although it has been expanding quickly in Asia and Latin America, it will need to prove that it can crack the U.S. market. Security tags with changing numbers dangle from key chains all over Europe. They're still rare in the U.S. $$$MR. MARKET$$$ smells opportunity.


    Remember, phishers and hackers are always looking for new ways for you to part with your identity info. How many times have you been asked for you Social Security number over the phone. Do you REALLY know who you are talking to?? Since 2005, U.S. regulators have pushed for enhanced security measures. Banks have struggled to come up with something. Vasco thinks more of them will turn to its Digipass security tags.

    "The United States is certainly a big opportunity for us," said Ken Hunt, chairman and chief executive. "We have a lot of banks and savings and loans here." There's a growing realization that "the Internet is not safe, and something has to be done about it."

    In 2005, just 7% of Vasco's business was in the U.S. and it has grown to double digits. But Vasco isn't just relying on increasing U.S. sales. The company said it's making solid gains in Latin America and Asia as well and penetrating deeper into Europe. In July, Vasco upgraded its guidance. It told investors to look for 55% to 65% revenue growth in 2007, after previously calling for 35% to 45% growth. There's huge potential for growth worldwide.

    The company estimates that the worldwide software and hardware authentication market at about $1.3 billion, with banks by far the largest component. That’s a lot of dough for a tiny company that is growing like crazy. The company has about 850 banks as customers and are about 50,000 banks around the globe.

    Now here’s the real key to why Vasco is going to take off in the US. Of course we don’t want to have to carry around these security tags. But how many of you already carry around a cellphone? Vasco can also deliver the same unique password to users' cell phones, PDAs and other portable devices.

    Banks tend to adopt Vasco's technology in stages. First, a bank might launch a pilot project or buy Digipasses for a few departments. Then, the technology is expanded to more employees and the bank's biggest customers. Finally, tokens are rolled out to most customers.

    As a result, revenue for Vasco is spread over several years, and can increase every year, a process the company calls "layering." Analysts and execs foresee lots of potential growth from Vasco's existing customers. Vasco says banking clients have rolled out its technology to only 10% of potential users.

    Does Vasco make money? Does it ever. Revenues for the second quarter of 2007 increased 75% to $32.4 million from $18.5 million for the second quarter in 2006 and, for the first six months of 2007, increased 83% to $58.8 million from $32.2 million for the first six months in 2006.

    Net income for the second quarter of 2007 was $6.9 million or $0.18 per diluted share, an increase of $3.8 million or 126% from $3.0 million, or $0.08 per diluted share for the comparable period in 2006. Net income for the first six months of 2007 was $11.8 million or $0.31 per diluted share, an increase of $7.6 million or 181% from $4.2 million, or $0.11 per diluted share for the comparable period in 2006.

    VASCO won 631 new customers in the second quarter of 2007 (113 banks and 518 enterprise security) and 1,250 in the first six months of 2007(207 banks and 1,043 enterprise security).

    Now is a perfect time to love VDSI. ANAL-ysts are crying about it being too expensive and earnings are coming out next week. The downgrades handed down last month by analysts from Friedman Billings and RBC Capital came with concern that Vasco's stock may have reached its "fair value" and that the company's business could be affected by the turbulence in the financial services market, a segment in which Vasco has significant exposure. Guess what, JP Morgan just beat its numbers today.

    Although Vasco’s CEO admitted nearly 85% of the company’s sales come from the banking industry, he also said Vasco’s bank business is unrelated to the subprime mortgage industry. "I can say unequivocally we are not seeing any problems from the subprime mortgage debacle," he said.

    Furthermore, $$$MR. MARKET$$$ has no fear of what these crackhouses say. Vasco has yet to disappoint with its financial results. Operating profit (margin) as a percentage of revenue for full-year 2007 is projected to be in the range of 23% to 30% as compared to previous guidance of 18% to 25%. As they grow in size, they make more money per unit sold, not less money.

    VDSI has been one of the security software sector's strongest performers with year-over-year revenue growth of 75% in its latest quarter. For the third quarter, analysts polled by Thomson Financial are expecting EPS of 16 cents on revenue of $31.1 million. Baaa haa haa haa haa!!! I just sissed myself. That’s ridiculous. VDSI will do $40 million in revenue for this quarter and $50 million for next quarter which would make $148 million for 2007. That would exceed ANAL-ysts estimates of $125 million. Don’t these guys pay attention? VDSI blasts earnings estimates by 20% each and every quarter.

    This one is no bunny trail. Vasco's third-quarter results should go a long way toward showing whether the stock can sustain its run. And with a new 52-week high, shareholders can't afford to see any missteps. Any hint of a slowdown in growth or loss of momentum will really hurt the stock price since the P/E is so high. I’m not worried.

    Neither is the boss:
    "The results for the quarter, and year-to-date, confirm that each of our core strategies is working," said Ken Hunt, VASCO's CEO and Chairman. "Our Full-Option, All-Terrain product strategy is generating record numbers of new customers. Our existing customers, which are the source of our sustainable, repeatable revenues, are contributing strongly to our record level of revenues. And, finally, our strategies for improving operating efficiency have resulted in an increase in operating income as a percentage of revenue. In the second quarter of 2007, operating income was approximately 29% of revenue compared to approximately 22% in the second quarter of 2006."
    Why should we listen to this guy? He ain’t no nerd. As a sophomore at the University of Miami, he was the starting halfback for the Hurricanes in 1962, with the dream of making it into the NFL. But after football season ended, Hunt was accidentally shot through the left ankle with a .45-caliber pistol while target shooting with a few fraternity brothers at a nearby levee.

    That’s my kind of guy. Get hammer head sharked and go shoot things. $$$MR. MARKET$$$ thinks VDSI stock will shoot the moon.

    Speaking of shooting the moon, the Little Tigers are now 4-2 and in the hunt for a playoff spot. Catch all the action at www.golittletigers.com


    I am HUGE!!

    $$$MR. MARKET$$$
    Last edited by mrmarket; 01-07-2008, 06:39 PM.
    =============================

    I am HUGE! Bring me your finest meats and cheeses.

    - $$$MR. MARKET$$$
  • mystiky
    Senior Member
    • Dec 2004
    • 333

    #2
    Ach

    Mr. Market,

    You shoulda, coulda bought ACH.

    Up only $12 as I type....

    but VDSI is not a bad choice

    Comment


    • #3
      A good choice, huge one.
      VDSI is doing well for me in the pick-of-the year contest.
      It just keeps going up, up, up.

      I've made some good money on VDSI this year, although I am currently out of it.
      Originally posted by stenzrob on 8/8/07 View Post
      I first bought VDSI back in Dec 2006 at $12.00. Sold that in January 2007 at $14.35, a 19.5% gain. Bought again on June 1 for $23.09, having missed quite a bit of the run, and am currently up just over 34%. If I had just held the original position, I would be up 158%.
      Originally posted by stenzrob on 8/9/07 View Post
      Sold my VDSI position today at $31.40.
      That last sell was for a 36% gain.

      Comment

      • Karel
        Administrator
        • Sep 2003
        • 2199

        #4
        Nice pick. In at 41.20.

        Regards,

        Karel
        My Investopedia portfolio
        (You need to have a (free) Investopedia or Facebook login, sorry!)

        Comment

        • mystiky
          Senior Member
          • Dec 2004
          • 333

          #5
          Jeffries comments on VDSI today (pre-market)

          I have no position of VDSI, but wanted to pass thing along:

          October 17, 2007
          VASCO Data-VDSI checks indicate business less strong than last year-Hold@JEFF
          Jefferies' checks with the company's channel partners indicate that business is strong, although less strong than this time last year. Jefferies remains concerned about the high expectations priced in at current levels. Target to $38 from $26.

          Comment

          • New-born baby
            Senior Member
            • Apr 2004
            • 6095

            #6
            Nice write up, and best to you with it. That write up was so good you almost convinced me to jump in. And I may yet. I'll wait until earnings come out first.

            Nice work on the top five, MM. Youarehuge!
            pivot calculator *current oil price*My stock picking method*Charting Lesson of the Week:BEAR FLAG PATTERN

            Comment

            • IIC
              Senior Member
              • Nov 2003
              • 14938

              #7
              Glad to see 'ya went w/ an IIC 100 stock...VDSI is # 91 this week...Good Luck w/ it...IIC


              EDIT: Oop's...I mean # 6...I accidently looked at the alpha sort list...I see it first appeared on 8/13...Although it may have been on prior...Didn't go back and check
              "Trade What Is Happening...Not What You Think Is Gonna Happen"

              Find Tomorrow's Winners At SharpTraders.com

              Follow Me On Twitter

              Comment

              • jiesen
                Senior Member
                • Sep 2003
                • 5319

                #8
                Bought VDSI

                Great pick, $$MM! I'm in with you at 42.2.

                Comment

                • Odysseus
                  Senior Member
                  • Oct 2007
                  • 493

                  #9
                  Joined in the fun

                  Just joined the fun here and jumped on VDSI at 40.60 yesterday. Hoping this is just a small pullback based on the sudden 150 point drop on the Dow, but VDSI is now at 40.13

                  Trend looks great though
                  ~Ody
                  Stock Pick ~ POTW ~ POTY ~ Rules ~ POTW Summary

                  Comment

                  • mystiky
                    Senior Member
                    • Dec 2004
                    • 333

                    #10
                    VDSI and the charts

                    This close of 37.62 is not too good. You got the 20%, but the wrong way.
                    The good news is that 50-day should offer a decent support. The bad news is that it's only at 34.75.

                    O well...

                    Comment

                    • IIC
                      Senior Member
                      • Nov 2003
                      • 14938

                      #11
                      Originally posted by mystiky View Post
                      This close of 37.62 is not too good. You got the 20%, but the wrong way.
                      The good news is that 50-day should offer a decent support. The bad news is that it's only at 34.75.

                      O well...
                      VDSI...EPS on 10/25...Raised guidance... I'd say the thing rockets...A miss and/or no raised guidance...it tanks
                      "Trade What Is Happening...Not What You Think Is Gonna Happen"

                      Find Tomorrow's Winners At SharpTraders.com

                      Follow Me On Twitter

                      Comment

                      • mrmarket
                        Administrator
                        • Sep 2003
                        • 5971

                        #12
                        Originally posted by IIC View Post
                        VDSI...EPS on 10/25...Raised guidance... I'd say the thing rockets...A miss and/or no raised guidance...it tanks
                        Like I said..this ain't no bunny trail. None but the brave.
                        =============================

                        I am HUGE! Bring me your finest meats and cheeses.

                        - $$$MR. MARKET$$$

                        Comment

                        • New-born baby
                          Senior Member
                          • Apr 2004
                          • 6095

                          #13
                          Originally posted by mrmarket View Post
                          Like I said..this ain't no bunny trail. None but the brave.
                          How about the market itself on Monday? A nice bounce, or murderer's row?
                          pivot calculator *current oil price*My stock picking method*Charting Lesson of the Week:BEAR FLAG PATTERN

                          Comment

                          • jiesen
                            Senior Member
                            • Sep 2003
                            • 5319

                            #14
                            added to VDSI

                            picked up another 1% in VDSI this morning, when my limit for 35.4 was hit! not a bad deal, imo.

                            Comment

                            • jiesen
                              Senior Member
                              • Sep 2003
                              • 5319

                              #15
                              sold some VDSI for $40

                              sold a 1% position in VDSI at 39.8, or 12% above where I got the shares yesterday. I'll buy them back again in the mid-30's after earnings come out, if the earnings report is good, and the market takes another hit. If not, I'll be happily cashing out the rest of my VDSI at $50.

                              Comment

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